2017 Oscar Pool Predictions
Every year I invite my family and close friends to submit their picks for the Oscar winners. It’s always a fun exercise, a combination of who you want to win vs. who you think will win and no one ever has the same predicted results.
Thanks to Google Forms and their datasets, this year I’m able to get a good glimpse, based on my sample audience of 16 people, who will win the Oscar.
Best Picture
Predicted Winner: La La Land
No surprise here, far and away the favorite to win the award this year, La La Land has an overwhelming majority with Moonlight and Manchester By The Sea the only other movies to get votes.
Actor In a Leading Role
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
The Casey Vs. Denzel race is apparent here with a wide edge given to Affleck with a few votes for Viggo and Gosling.
Actress In a Leading Role
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, La La Land
Emma Stone’s been the runaway favorite here, and my mini-academy agrees with some small support for Meryl Streep and Isabelle Huppert.
Actor In a Supporting Role
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
This one surprised me. I thought Ali was a lock, but votes for Dev Patel were strong with a few for Jeff Bridges and Michael Shannon.
Actress In a Supporting Role
Predicted Winner: Viola Davis, Fences
And most everyone agrees that Viola Davis is a lock here, with some small support for Octavia Spencer.
Animated Feature Film
Projected Winner: Zootopia
Tight race here between three notable movies. Moana and Kubo and the Two Strings fall just short to Zootopia.
Cinematography
Projected Winner: La La Land
The overwhelming favorite is La La Land and it continues here, with a mix of votes for some other films, but the majority speaks and it’s La La Land.
Costume Design
Projected Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
This one surprised me as I thought the conventional favorite of La La Land would be on top here, but it’s in third behind Fantastic Beasts and Jackie.
Directing
Projected Winner: La La Land
The La La Land machine rolls on, but some strong support for Manchester By The Sea.
Documentary Feature
Projectetd Winner: O.J.: Made In America
The spectacle of O.J. Simpson continues to captivate audiences and it’s no surprise to see this is a favorite amongst the group.
Documentary Short Subject
Projected Winner: Joe’s Violin
Tight race here between Joe’s Violin and The White Helmets. As every year, it’s a flip of the coin in this category.
Film Editing
Projected Winner: La La Land
La La Land continues it’s favorite status with some strong support for Arrival right behind it.
Foreign Language Film
Projected Winner: The Salesman
This is a two film race clearly with A Man Called Ove falling just short behind the politically charged film, The Salesman.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Projected Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Clean split here for votes as Star Trek Beyond eeks past the other two movies. Personally I want to know who voted for Suicide Squad with a straight face.
Music (Original Score)
Projected Winner: La La Land
Obvious run away win here for La La Land, with some small, curious votes for Passengers.
Music (Original Song)
Projected Winner: “City of Stars”, La La Land
What’s more surprising here isn’t that La La Land’s “City of Stars” ran away with it, but that “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana came in 4th in the voting. Thought it would place higher.
Production Design
Projected Winner: La La Land
Another runaway win for La La Land and strong showing for Hail, Caesar! which had some amazing production design in the film.
Animated Short Film
Projected Winner: Piper
Could this be the year Pixar breaks their 8 year drought in this category and win with Piper? The voting group thinks so, but votes were across the map here with some hopes for Borrowed Time.
Live Action Short Film
Projected Winner: Sing
One of the notorious “flip a coin” categories, gets a pretty even split across the nominees with Sing sneaking past Timecode.
Sound Editing
Projected Winner (TIE): La La Land OR Arrival
One of the few ties in the bunch here, with a split between two great sounding films and a small lonely voting block for Sully.
Sound Mixing
Projected Winner: La La Land
Surprised to see La La Land run away here and not have more support for Arrival, like the Sound Editing category.
Visual Effects
Projected Winner (TIE): Rogue One: A Star Wars Story OR The Jungle Book
Another tie between two Disney films with tons of special effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Projected Winner: Moonlight
A pretty interesting split as all 4 movies getting votes, but the current favorite Moonlight stands at the top.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Projected Winner (TIE): Manchester By The Sea or La La Land
Another tie across two strongly favored films with La La Land and Manchester By The Sea getting a split in the votes.
Who knows how accurate our little group of Oscars voters will be, especially with ages ranging across the spectrum (our youngest voter was 11 years old). Either way it’ll be fun to see if we successfully predict the winners or where the upsets will occur. No matter what, the pageantry of the Oscars will be enjoyed by everyone!
