In the past 72 hours many have argued that what is happening in Ukraine so far is almost identical to the tactics used by Russia to occupy and effectively annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008: manipulate, provoke, bring about a sense of crisis that prompts an appeal for aid and then send in Russian forced in peacekeeping capacity.
But today, Vladimir Putin realizes that Ukraine is indeed different from his 08 playbook; with 46 million people and significant armed forces of its own. It is also insolvent and most of its people want to be Ukrainians with no puppet government by Russia. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Putin wants to push things into a full scale war in Ukraine. With current economic stagnation in Mother Russia or Rossiya-Matushka, Putin will surely have second thoughts about the political and economic burdens of an occupation of any kind.
Let’s not forget, that Russia never recognized that South Ossetia and Abkhazia were under Georgia’s control, but signed a treaty in 1994 guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
I believe, today we are dealing with a modern Russia not the old Soviet Union. Putin’s Russia is not immune to diplomatic and political condemnations. It was not Putin that created the crisis in Ukraine, it was imposed on him and he knows that he could be paying a high price for his action.
Next year, I won’t be surprise to see, the 61 years old Vladimir Putin gets a nomination in a Best Actor in a Leading Role category for his latest performance after Sochi & Syria in the 87th Academy Award ceremony at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles next year. And the Oscar goes to…