The Road To Mass Adoption Is Littered With Dead Bodies, Defunct Cryptos, & Broken Dreams…
With the crypto markets awash in the blood of new investors, many now question their initial investments, whether it was all a dream, and where it’s all eventually heading. To begin to answer we first need to understand the roots of where it all began, what it truly is, what's actually going on, and what inevitably comes next…
31st October 2008, The birth of an era, Satoshi Nakamoto publishes the Bitcoin whitepaper solving the before unsolved problem of double-spending in a decentralised digital monetary system.
This unique point in time creates the Schelling point that births today’s cryptocurrency movement.
The act of securing the Bitcoin network by combining evolutionary game-theory and the capture of thermodynamic energy via proof-of-work in many ways parallels that of the mining and capture of precious commodity metals, and by limiting the total quantity of bitcoin ever mined, Nakamoto created the first truly scarce digital commodity, bitcoin.
Elegantly meshing the security and economic model together to work in perfect harmony is the masterstroke of pure genius. This finely balanced ecosystem is yet to be comprehensively understood by those seeking to remove the need for ‘wasted’ electricity from the Bitcoin ecosystem. Sorry greenies, but kindly fuck off. Do not tinker with that in which you do not truly understand.
Birthplace Of A Crypto Era
This is where it all began. Whether you care to admit it or even yet realise it, these first steps taken by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto are some of the single most important fundamental leaps forward by mankind in recent history, and will slowly begin to shape the world in which we live in. Freedom is a contagion, once you open Pandora’s box, good luck putting the virus back in.
Day Zero. Bitcoin’s creation forever fundamentally changes the way in which we think about our relationship to money, and the way in which we transmit value over space and time. By creating a monetary system free of central control our benevolent teacher Satoshi leaves us the tools to unshackle an entire civilisation to realise social-scale anarcho-capitalism.
True digital lazzes-faire is the next step in the evolution of society.
Right Place Right Time
Born of cypherpunks in the fiery aftermath of the global financial crisis with its DNA etched with anarcho-capitalist ideals, Bitcoin is the protocol for a decentralised monetary system existing without central issuer or control, and bitcoin is the sovereign money of the protocol without borders.
Whether by chance or by fate, this salient moment in history will never be recreated, and the survival of modern cryptocurrency as a digital commodities class & a real asset with tangible value hinges on the survival of the only truly spontaneous and first truly scarce digital commodity, bitcoin.
The Evolution Of A Money
If you care to suspend belief at the base of a bear market – Bitcoin will evolve before our very eyes from;
- A volatile digital commodity and means of exchange.
- A more widely saleable commodity money and store of value.
- A sovereign reserve currency.
- In its final form bitcoin will swallow the world becoming the universal unit of account.
Warning, this journey is not for the faint of hearted & may take the better part of a generation or two. Enjoy the ride. Learn from your mistakes. Stop buying the top.
Where Are We Now?
Rekt, thanks for asking! In 2017 from January to December, the price of bitcoin rose meteorically. Starting the year at around $900 bitcoin reached the almost unfathomable highs of $20,000 as we come nearing to an end of the bull market in late December. Christmas 2017 was fucking epic and I’m sure even where it wasn’t snowing, many a white Christmas was celebrated on crypto’s behalf.
Merry Fucking Christmas & A Bloody New Year
In the sobering dawn of 2018, another story unfolded, a story of momentous greed coming crumbling down from the heights of Olympus to the depths of hell and despair. The market cap. and price of bitcoin a shadow of its former glory sitting a the current market prices of around $3,800. Oh, my bitcoin is looking dead.
Sad. Let’s think about this…
Bitcoin’s Ded! That’s A Scam!
Wrong. You witnessed (and perhaps took part in) shared delusion, euphoria, and greed unparalleled. You witnessed a mass hysteria overtake the minds of a global population, and as the crypto mania mind virus spread like a wildfire through the unwashed masses, bountiful parabolic charts ensued.
A speculator's wet dream. Fortunes were gained speculating on bitcoin and altcoins, fortunes were also lost. RIP rekt fortunes.
So It’s All Speculation & The Greater Fool? That’s A Ponzi!
First I’d like to take a moment to draw your attention to the fact that the Forex market facilitates over $5 trillion of currency speculation daily. Yes, daily.
This speculative marketplace is the backbone of foreign trade and currency conversion of the entire planet. Speculation is a necessary part of every market and every asset class.
Without Forex the entire idea and illusion of money breaks as international trade become next to impossible…
How do you like them apples?
Complex Monetary Systems Needs Speculators And Market Makers
A complex monetary system needs speculation and market makers bringing with them liquidity to aide in its utility to function. Speculation is truly part of the first utility to evolve in a complex monetary system.
Bitcoin manages to function as a complex monetary system in spite of any of the current speculative prices, though, it certainly helps to sell the concept when it’s moving positively.
Regardless of the current price, cryptocurrencies are all still more or less almost entirely speculative, and most large speculators are currently betting on the future value of bitcoin as a scarce digital commodity, and then its possible (or probable depending on where you sit) evolution to a saleable worldwide money.
Reality is but a harsh mistress…
What you witnessed in late ‘17 was simply a case of physics, what goes parabolically up must eventually come down! The series of events that unfolded late 2017 was peak insanity², any traders wet dream, as noobs rushed in on Lambo dreams following the intense Bitcoin and crypto media blitz.
The equation of which was the bulls taking charge of pure human green en masse, followed by a greedy bulltarded market led by nubile crypto ‘trader gods’ who were extremely slow to meet the realisation to the true nature of reality. You got shook down multiple times son. This is crypto.
Red Pill Me
Many commodity traders have been calling near this deep a retracement since January. Nobody wanted to hear it, myself included. Bitcoin’s strong we said. This is the Bottom we said. Wrong. If Bitcoin is behaving like a true scarce digital commodity, we should listen to the professional commodity traders. Mea Culpa.
Upside Down Mr Squiggle!
Recap: This chart truly is a work of art, Gucci! Since December the market has been driven into a descending triangle, a coiling pattern of dampening volatility with bears controlling most of the narrative.
Lol. Sorry I just had to. As you can see the bulls return for market pushes several times throughout the year but each time the market makes its push a large bear smackdown occurs. The bears savagely ripping off heads and continue beating down the perma-bulltards who thought 5–6k was the true bottom (don’t worry I was fooled once too, RIP dem Gucci gains).
The market is but a reading of pure emotion over time. The traders that made their hay off the insanity have patiently been shaking the weak nubile crypto traders hands all year, bravo sirs, please stop.
Pure misdirection, ‘big money’ or ‘Wall Street’ shakes out the fresh nubile blood, while this whole time they have been priming up Satoshi’s rocketship for round two.
The capital in-roads are set for larger investment into bitcoin in 2019 than ever before possible. You are entering the age of financialisation. You can choose to believe me or not. Mine is not to convince you, just to let you know.
The market makers are loaded up on the tears, misery, and copious dollars and bitcoins of the stupid and greedy of 2017–2018.
Fuck You, THAT’S Actually A Scam
No, that's a digital speculative commodity market evolving before your eyes. That's a new system of money slowly increasing its utility and perceived value. Until adoption reaches the tipping point of saturation that is mass adoption, the digital commodity market led by bitcoin will be a speculator's wet dream, and volatility will reign supreme.
Welcome to the future, you can choose to participate at your own risk.
Contrarians Are King
As long as you don’t time your entry with the stupid and greedy unwashed masses, and you have at least a mid-term (3+year) horizon, anything even close to today’s prices is a solid entry. If you are not cut out for swing trading like 99% of the world, contrarians can still make money by buying into weakness and selling into strength.
The Mayer multiple is showing historic weakness for bitcoin, for the bold only who believe in the future of cryptocurrency, now is a contrarian sign to begin to look for suitable market entries.
While I believe we may still have one more leg down, unless you are a legitimate trader;
Dollar cost average in to weakness, dollar cost average out of strength. Always take profit, never liquidate, build your cold storage. Rinse, repeat.
Do not be the herd, beat the herd. When the unwashed masses buy, you sell. When they sell, you buy.
What comes next exactly, my friend, I truly have no fucking idea. But if you believe in the abstract concept of digital commodities then this is only the beginning.
The market will see many more cycles of this insanity, unfathomable insanity, and I truly believe we haven’t truly seen anything yet. Though, if I’m correct, the next time you can choose to benefit from hindsight learnt in the aftermath of this chaos.
Here’s a summary of the market in one tweet…
“Fuck You, This Is Why I Don’t Own Bitcoin!”
Oh, my poor sweet nocoin ignorant friend, whether or not your ledger holds BTC, everything that bitcoin does moves the entire market. The tide of bitcoin is a magnet for the entire market cap. If BTC gets a cold, your favourite coin likely may freeze to death.
When papa speaks everybody listens.
Whether or not you choose to accept objective reality, Bitcoin is currently the most secure platform, the most mature, and the only cryptocurrency to demonstrate function as a true closed loop and complete monetary system.
Bitcoin is a truly free market economic system functioning entirely free from state or corporate perversion. Bitcoin is true anarcho-capitalism delivered through the marvel of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is. That’s right I’m a maximalist. I will make no formal apologies.
The Subjective Reality
I believe the subjective reality (which is objectified more by the day) is; if digital commodity money is to evolve from a digital commodity, than it will take the same course (as already partially witnessed) as a commodity money on a highly condensed time line. The evolutionary game of the formation of a money without government interference is entirely zero-sum, there can be only one…
“..one of the commodities will gradually displace all others…The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange.” – Alan Greenspan
Join The Cult Of Bitcoin, We Will Swallow The World
Everything in the cryptocurrency world is correlated to BTC, it is the proto-digital commodity, it is the black hole at the centre of the universe, it is the reserve currency of the digital economy, if it ever fails, it will drag the entire cryptocurrency market to hell before it resets, if it actually ever does reset. Prove me wrong.
But Bitcoin Cash Beyblades Is Satoshi’s True Vision Bro!
Do not listen to experts that tell you to buy every flavour of shit alt coins, do not listen to the bitcoin Jesus turned Judas slinging their fake bitcoin, do not listen to people claiming to be Satoshi, and don’t ever listen to programmers slinging their ‘new’ bitcoin killing alt coin. They all want you to buy their alt coins, so they can buy more bitcoin.
If they understand market dynamics and are being truly honest, every cryptocurrency developer, every bitcoin Jesus turned Judas, every altcoin influencer is themselves ultimately accruing bitcoin, and attempting to profit along the way. Prove me wrong.
Bitcoin’s longevity and incorruptibility are the foundations of which cryptocurrency are built upon, the survival of the proto-digital commodity is intrinsically linked to digital commodities as a entire abstract concepts life blood.
I know this statement is going to trigger a lot of people, deal with it. Come at me bro.
“Fuck You More! I Just Want Everyday Useable Crypto!!”
Cryptocurrency that is useable as non-volatile everyday money is a pipe-dream we may realise one day in the (probably quite distant) future, but today they are still largely speculative and extremely volatile, with the current perceived need for their existence in the developed world seen as infinitesimally small. For now.
So Why The Fuck Even Bitcoin Bro?
Most of us, fortunately due to circumstance of the piece of dirt we were born on, aren’t needing to escape run away inflation, nor are we economically persecuted by and large in the western world. For now…
One only has to look at China’s radical social-credit system, a system designed to bankrupt “non-conformists”, and know logically if our government continues along the current path, we may be glimpsing into our future. A former Chinese government official Hou Yunchun was quoted on the topic of the social credit system as saying-
that a social credit system is necessary so that “discredited people become bankrupt.”
Coming to a distopian future near you soon, the social credit system of the western probably world won’t be in plain site, but it will be probably just as devestating.
Born of anarchist ideals and forged by cypherpunks in the flames of the global financial crisis, bitcoin is the sovereign money that is the phoenix rising from the rotting corpse of fiat, delivering the red pill to the twisted financial system and perverted authoritarian future.