2016 Predictions — Oct 10, 2016
HRC will win, House will be Republican, Senate will be a very thin majority for either party (1 or 2 seats max). It’s a toss up who will be the majority, but I lean towards a one seat D majority.
What isn’t a toss up: gridlock will be the norm until 2018, which will be very favorable to Republicans both the House and the Senate.
My contrarian question: does differentiating from Trump allow moderates bring the center back to Republicans?
HRC 2020 will make 2012 look easy. Governing will amplify some of her flaws, the press will have an incentive and obligation to do reporting that will make her look more untrustworthy, and the blue wall from Obama’s women and minorities coalition may crumble before a nominee like Sandoval.