Can Portman run from Trump?
Democrats have 4 of 16 CDs in Ohio. The main urban centers that are strong D are Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland.
The 3rd(D+14), 9th (D+15), 11th (D+30), 13th (D+12) are strongly blue according to Cook PVI. That’s the three main urban cities Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland.
However, a place like Youngstown in OH-13 is example of the narrative Trump is spinning to suggest he has a hope (“Mahoning County, home to heavily white, economically struggling — and traditionally Democratic — Youngstown, said Republican voter registration has “more than doubled” in the county, which gave Trump more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary. The Democratic voter registration advantage over Republican registration in the county has shrunk to only about 6,000")
However, Republican recalcitrance with Trump, his lack of a ground game, and feuding with Kasich could also lower turnout (“if we don’t get Republicans to turn out in Warren County, it is extremely difficult for the Trump campaign to win…an underperformance of even 2 percent there could make a difference in a state that Obama won by only about 100,000 votes in 2012").
Republican incumbent Portman’s race against former Ohio governor Strickland is another important swing Senate race. Portman recently got the Ohio teamsters endorsement which typically goes D (and fraternal order of the police which is usually R in federal races). Portman has been running away from Trump while Strickland has embraced Clinton and will be trying to tie the incumbent to Trump (Portman will try to keep it local while Strickland will try to nationalize the race).