India’s very own Asia Pivot
How Mr. Modi can rejuvenate Indian foreign policy and build up the country’s credentials in the Asian neighborhood
Over the last 10 years, Indian foreign policy has had the notorious distinction of lacking much direction and initiative. An administration beset by massive corruption scandals, leadership issues, coalition infighting and greater instances of bureaucratic mismanagement, has been a major contributor in this regard. Admittedly, it’s not that bad a picture; it was Dr. Manmohan Singh who negotiated and pushed through a historic deal with the United States on civilian nuclear energy, and it was the same administration that initiated the “Look East” policy, that emphasized better relations with countries like Japan and Taiwan. However, not much was done to bolster such initiatives.
With Mr. Narendra Modi all set to take the reigns of government, things are bound to change. Mr. Modi happens to be the first leader to win a decisive mandate in the last 30 years, and part of this mandate stems from the aspirations of the people, to see their country play a bigger role in global affairs, than it has done so far. Taking a stand on Ukraine against the West doesn’t count; what counts, is balancing strained relationships with countries like Pakistan and China, and forging greater economic and cultural ties with other countries in the Asian neighborhood.
It’s well-known that Japanese PM Mr. Shinzo Abe and Mr. Modi, enjoy a personal rapport; indeed, as reported previously by The Diplomat, Mr. Modi made it a point to congratulate Mr. Abe when the latter returned to power. Tokyo has stated repeatedly, that its bilateral relationship with India is one that holds a tremendous amount of potential.
However, Indian foreign policy shouldn’t stop here. And in this context, it would be worth talking about the erstwhile South—East Asian Treaty Organization. Created in 1954, it aimed to be an Asian NATO, with the principal aim of combating communism. While SEATO quickly lost its relevance and was dissolved, one does feel now is the time for a similar arrangement, with the principal aim of combating rogue governments and elements.
India would do well, to lobby for the creation of a new defense umbrella, comprising SAARC nations, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore as core members, with the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand as observers. The idea of such a framework is to pool in military, intelligence and economic resources to combat rogue terrorism, as well as to act as a counter against Pakistan, China and Russia.
But is that really wise? Is it wise to exclude countries like Pakistan, China and Russia? Including them would mean creating a more region-specific platform for resolving long-standing disputes amicably; but one mustn’t forget that either China or Russia don’t give much importance to international frameworks like the UN, when it comes to flexing their muscles over disputes in the Crimea, or over the Spratly Islands. And, in the same vein, neither does Pakistan, which continues to support proxy wars in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
Another major flaw in such a plan, is the antagonism between major powers in this scenario — Tokyo is intensely mistrustful of Chinese intentions, while South Korea, although a major ally of the US, is not exactly on the best of terms with Tokyo. At the same time, Japan and Taiwan are boosting economic and cultural ties, which makes Beijing grow warier about Tokyo’s rise in what the Chinese believe, is their turf. Afghan leaders are openly against what they see as Islamabad’s attempts to destabilize Afghanistan, while Pakistan, feels threatened by New Delhi’s close relationship with Kabul, and India’s construction efforts in the Afghan countryside. Add to that, the 67-year-old history of bitter animosity between India and Pakistan, coupled with a new Indian administration that has promised to take a tougher stance against Pakistani-exported terrorism, and you have a powder keg.
But can this powder keg be defused? That remains to be seen. Theoretically, India has nothing to lose by lobbying towards this framework, and at the end of the day, the possible advantages outweigh the obvious flaws. And after all, what is geopolitics, if not for a dose of over-optimism?