World Cup: Costa Rica and Nigeria are Biggest Underdogs to Qualify

Costa Rica faced the toughest competition of any team to qualify, Nigeria was lowest ranked team to get through

The most surprising team of the World Cup so far may be Costa Rica. They had the toughest draw by far of any team to qualify for the Round of 16. As measured by FIFA ranking, the weakest team Costa Rica has faced is England (10), with whom they tied. They also own a 1-0 victory over Italy (9) and a 3-1 win over Uruguay (7).

The only team with a tougher path was Ghana, who faced their own Murder’s Row of Germany (2), Portugal (4), and the United States (13). However, of all teams that qualified for the knockout stage Costa Rica’s opposition had the lowest combined FIFA ranking (26) and average ranking (8.7). They are followed somewhat distantly by the United States whose opponents combined ranking is 43 and average rank is 14.3.

The United States qualification is not such a surprise considering they were considered third strongest in their group to begin with. Costa Rica on the other hand was considered a distant fourth. Not only did Costa Rica qualify, but they won their group to boot.

Among teams to qualify for the Round of 16, only Nigeria has a lower ranking (Nigeria:44, Costa Rica:28). A measured by the difference between a team and their opponent’s FIFA rank, Nigeria was also the biggest underdog to qualify for the group stage.

The average rank of Nigeria’s opposition in the group stage is a full 21 positions higher than Nigeria’s rank.

However, you only need to outperform two teams to qualify. In Nigeria’s group Argentina (5) was a lock. Nigeria had to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina (21), and Iran (43). Costa Rica on the other hand had to bet Italy (9) and England (10). On average, taking into account only the two weakest teams, Nigeria was outranked by 12, while Costa Rica was outranked by 18. What’s more, Costa Rica finished first in their group to Nigeria’s second.

So its safe to say Costa Rica’s performance is the biggest positive surprise of the World Cup so far. (Unless you hate Spain)