My Predictions for 2016
This article will be plain and simple, I am penning down my predictions for 2016 so that I reflect on how right I was a year down the line. I also desperately need to improve my writing skills, hence writing this article should hopefully be a step forward.
Some of these predictions are predicted by myself, however some have been through statements made by other with I totally agree with.
- S&P 500 will remain flat again in 2016.
With ISM manufacturing falling below the crucial 50 level in November, coupled with a predicted 2% GDP growth in 2016, we can not expect the S&P to fly. If the ISM prints below 50 in the next few months, there will be trouble in 2016.
- Emerging markets is still the place to be.
Although the macro factors (primarily the strong dollar and slowdown in global growth) has caused EM to slow down, I still think the big money is to be made in EM. Having said that, I don’t believe you should buy an index or ETF and sit on it. The bargains are to found for those who dig deeper. Furthermore, emerging markets should not be seen as one asset class, it too big for that, it holds more than half of the worlds population and and they are the future consumers of tomorrow.
- Kenya’s coastal tourism will see a quick recovery.
A recent cabinet reshuffle by Uhuru Kenyatta moved Najib Balala back to Tourism CS, which was much needed in my opinion. He revived the industry after the 2007 election , and I have full confidence that he can do it again.
- 2016 will be the year of Vlogging.
Casey Neistat, a filmmaker and technology entrepreneur, began a series of daily vlogs on Youtube early this year. I think this is an inflection of a new trend; anyone who wants to be noticed in the digital world will be vlogging in 2016. From celebrities to personal brands; vlogging is the thing to do in 2016.
- Twitch Poker will explode in 2016.
I never used to understand twitch, why would anyone want to watch others play video games? Until I stumbled across Jaime Staples, a twitch poker streamer play poker. I was instantly hooked. I have also noticed more and more poker players streaming on twitch and I think the trend will continue. Poker players, if you want to build a personal brand, and an online community, I would highly recommend becoming a twitch streamer.
- Amazon, Google and Facebook will continue to dominate.
Its a winner takes all economy. I buy my cereal and pastas on Amazon, that say is it all.