What Happened to Bexar County?
Since the 2000 presidential election, bellwether counties across the United States have shifted. Many of these counties have gotten less and less dependable in determining who’s going to win. The main bellwether counties in Texas in 2000 that has always gotten the Presidential Election right where Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis counties. However, these counties have shifted dramatically towards Democrats since the 2000 presidential election. So, why is that? Why are these past bellwether counties becoming unreliable in helping gauge who’s going to win? The Hispanic population in Texas has been skyrocketing since 2000. Hispanics have become the most dominant ethnicity in Texas. Is this why these past counties, which were once considered bellwethers are now heavily Democratic? The main county I will be looking at today is my home county, Bexar County. A county that once voted for George Bush by 52% of the vote in 2000, to Joe Biden winning it by 58% of the vote in 2020. So, to repeat the questions above, what happened to Bexar County?
This county, Bexar County has been shifting towards the Democratic Party since the 2000 presidential election. The last Republican that Bexar County would ever elect is George Bush in 2004. So why is that? The Hispanic population in Bexar County has been growing exponentially since 2000. As seen on Table 1, In 2000 the Hispanic population in Bexar County was at 757,003 (2000 Census Report). In 2010, the Hispanic population reached 1,006,958 a net increase of 32% (2010 Census Report). To the recent census data revealed that the new Hispanic population in Bexar County was at 1,224,930 (2020 Census Report). A 61% increase since 2000 and a 31% increase since 2010. Hispanic voters in Bexar County favored the Democratic Party because of its stance on social and economic issues between 2000–2020. According to a Pew Research Poll, most Hispanics believe Democrats have “more concern for Latinos or Hispanics than the Republican Party”. While the Hispanic population was increasing in Bexar County, so has its share of Democratic votes since 2000.
According to Dr. Jon Taylor, professor and department chair of the Department of Political Science and Geography at UTSA, “You wouldn’t see a Democrat win in Bexar County basically until Bill Clinton came along, and even with Bill Clinton, it was not by much of a margin,” he later writes “It Is after Bill Clinton and after George W. Bush that we begin to see what has become a much stronger blue area for Democrats in Bexar County” (KSAT). Hispanics have become the dominate ethnicity in Bexar County. An increase in the Hispanic population and a decrease in whites throughout 2000–2020 led to Democratic Presidential Candidates winning Bexar County. As you see in Map 2, you see in the population density map which shows in yellowish/orange the Hispanic areas of Bexar County (Race Map). As you see in Table 3, since the election of George Bush, Democratic Presidential Candidates have been steadily winning and increasing their margins in Bexar County (Bexar Elections Dept). As you compare the Census Data from 2000–2020 and the Presidential Election Results, you see a correlation between the rise of Hispanic populations and the increase of Democratic strength.
This trend not only runs county wide, but the two commissioner precincts that hold 65% of the total Hispanic population, also mimic the trends county wide. Bexar County is divided into four commissioners’ precincts. Precincts 1 and 2 are the most Hispanic and heavily Democratic districts in the county. Precinct 3 is white and is the most Republican out of all four. Finally, Precinct 4, the precinct I live in is the most diverse precinct in the county. It holds portions of the Hispanic population, all the African American communities, and then some rural white communities. But for this project, will be looking solely at precincts 1 and 2.
Table 4 shows the boundaries of each commissioner’s precincts. As seen on Table 5, between the 2016 election and the 2000 election these two precincts have increased their share of the vote for Democrats and share of votes in general across the county. 2020 data and data from 2004 are not present. As you can see, the two precincts’ share of votes has increased since 2000. In the 2000 presidential race between Bush and Gore, Gore won these precincts by about 55% of the vote. In the presidential race in 2016 between Clinton and Trump, Clinton won these precincts by 66% of the vote (Bexar Elections Department). This goes to show that as an increase of Hispanic population in these commissioner’s precincts increase, so does it share of Democratic votes.
The commissioner precinct results in heavy Hispanic areas of Bexar County, and Bexar County’s results overall are similar in the outcome of these race. Bexar County, the county once considered a bellwether county has according to Dr. Taylor, “gradually, incrementally moving from being a Republican area, not necessarily a strong Republican area, but a Republican area, to a weak Republican area, to basically a purple area, and now a blue area.” This is the story of many counties that are now blue counties, but Bexar County has seen the overwhelming increase in the overall growth of Hispanics in Texas. Therefore, leading to a Democratic stronghold in Bexar County on the backs of Hispanics.
Bibliography
“2000 Census of Bexar County, TX.” CensusViewer. Accessed November 13, 2021. http://censusviewer.com/county/TX/Bexar/2000.
“Demographic and Income Profile — Bexar County, Texas.” Accessed November 13, 2021. https://maps.bexar.org/resources/bcdr/countywide/Demographic_and_Income.pdf.
“Historical Election Results.” Historical Election Results | Bexar County, TX — Official Website. Accessed November 13, 2021. https://www.bexar.org/2186/Historical-Election-Results.
“Population of Bexar County, Texas:Census 2010 and 2000 Interactive Map, Demographics, Statistics, Graphs, Quick Facts.” CensusViewer. Accessed November 13, 2021. http://censusviewer.com/county/TX/Bexar.
“Race, Diversity, and Ethnicity in San Antonio, TX …” Accessed November 13, 2021. https://bestneighborhood.org/race-in-san-antonio-tx/.
“Your County Government.” Your County Government | Bexar County, TX — Official Website. Accessed November 13, 2021. https://www.bexar.org/3134/Your-County-Government.
Salinas, Rebecca. “How San Antonio Has Voted in Past Presidential Elections.” KSAT. KSAT San Antonio, November 3, 2020. https://www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/10/12/how-san-antonio-has-voted-in-past-presidential-elections/.
Lopez, Mark Hugo, Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, Jens Manuel Krogstad, and Gustavo López. “Latinos and the American Political Parties.” Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project. Pew Research Center, December 30, 2019. https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2016/10/11/latinos-and-the-political-parties/.
