Does the U.S. have high gun violence risk? TLDR : yes
The US has ~12 gun related deaths per 100,000 people, compared to only 2 in Canada, and 0.62 in Spain.
Historically, Colorado, where I live, has gun violence deaths per 100,000 of 11.5, or close to the national average:
Boulder country, where I live within Colorado, the rate is slightly lower (8):
(It’s worth noting that 9 out of 10 gun related deaths are suicides. )
But the averages don’t create your risk, the tail events do.
For example on March 22, 2021 the Boulder shooting spiked the Boulder County gun violence death rate by from 8, to 18.
Yes, but how often does this really happen?
My data instincts tell me that gun deaths happen often enough that the risk is legitimate, and should not be ignored.
For example:
Roughly, we can expect this sort of event about every 10 years somewhere in Colorado.
On an expected value basis, I expect another mass murder event in Colorado, perhaps even in Boulder county, before my kids are grown up (10 years).
Starting in Kindergarten (age 6), my son had to do Active Shooter drills. Sandy Hook is a continuous reminder that this is far from a theoretical scenario.
