On July 12, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez takes on Erislandy Lara in what is one of the most anticipated fights of the year, for a number of reasons, but mostly because of the total contrast of styles that both fighters bring to the table.

Styles, however, are not the only element that make this match-up so intriguing. As with almost every headline/PPV boxing event nowadays, the fight itself is only the climax of a narrative that stews and simmers in the weeks and months prior, bringing to the fore the real intentions of each fighter, and aided in no small part by programs like All Access and 24/7. The narrative that has orbited this particular event started when Lara rather audaciously interrupted Canelo on the podium, during Canelo’s post-match press conference following his fight against Alfredo Angulo some four months ago. The proverbial gauntlet was laid down, and much to the chagrin of his handlers at Golden Boy, Canelo chose to take up this fight, with a point to prove against Lara, a tricky 31-year-old Cuban southpaw with a record of 19-2-1. Despite being younger by eight years, Canelo’s tape reads 43-1-1.

As mentioned, Canelo’s last fight was against the rugged veteran, Alfredo Angulo. Most pundits expected Angulo to provide some sort of resistance to Canelo, but for Canelo to eventually win. The result was more one-sided than most expected, with Canelo winning by TKO, completely dominating a hapless Angulo, and leading many spectators to believe that the fight was rigged. Golden Boy needed their fiery Mexican cash cow to rise again, and so he did. But Oscar de la Hoya’s hesitancy around Canelo fighting Lara shows that as promoters, they’re learning to handle their fighter’s expectations far more adeptly, especially in light of the boxing masterclass that Floyd Mayweather gave Canelo last September.

Both Canelo and Lara have had common foes, namely in Austin Trout and Angulo. To say whether Canelo or Lara looked better in their respective victories would be a red herring, after all, as transitivity rarely counts for much in the sport of boxing. One of the other elements that makes this match-up so juicy are the potential future fights that could be made. The winner of this fight could very well go on to face a supposedly ‘reborn’ Miguel Cotto sometime in the near future, and should Canelo beat both Lara and Cotto, he would almost be guaranteed a rematch against Floyd Mayweather, possibly late in 2015.

So, to put down a verdict: Lara, despite not having had as much professional experience as Canelo, looks skilled enough to win by decision. Prior to his defection from from Cuba in 2008, Lara won a host of accolades as an amateur, both at national championships and Olympics. The other issue hampering Canelo is a notable lack of stamina towards the championship rounds, which, at an elite level, is inexcusable. Despite looking fast and fit during training, his failure to get out of second gear and properly manage his energy levels towards the end of a fight could severely dent his chances of winning.