The Party After Trump
Kyle Baxter

I wish I shared your certainty that “Unless the polls are fundamentally wrong, Donald Trump will lose”…

I’m from the UK, where polls have been badly discredited because they have been fundamentally wrong about two massive recent political events: the 2015 General Election and the 2016 Brexit vote.

In 2015, EVERY SINGLE POLL was wrong about about the outcome of the General Election: the Conservative party won a majority and formed the government. This was not predicted by any poll, whether commissioned by the left, right or centre of the political spectrum, and it was a major shock to everyone, including all political commentators — none of whom predicted the result.

This then led to the 2016 referendum vote on the UK leaving the European Union (aka ‘ Brexit’), and again the pollsters got the result wrong — perhaps not quite as wrong as in 2015, but the vast, vast majority were totally wrong… pretty much all of them, from polls months before the vote to ones conducted in the final weeks, days and even hours before the result, all pointed to a vote for the UK to remain in the EU… Nope, wrong — the leave vote won, and by a not inconsiderable amount.

Moral of the story?: don’t put too much faith in polls. People lie to pollsters. Pollsters screw up. ‘Certainties’ in polls have left over half of the UK in shock and disbelief about the direction our country is now taking.

I hope Trump loses too, but it ain’t over til the fat lady sings. The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

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