Gold is getting Trumped
Vinny Lingham

Good analysis and plenty of food for thought. One small quibble I have relates to new gold mining supply, which in reality can never increase drastically compared to existing supply. New mining supply in gold is always going to be a tiny fraction of the market supply, because of the fundamental chemical properties of gold.

Since gold does not ruin and cannot be consumed, virtually all the gold every mined has been piling up in people’s gold hoards and jewelry over millennia. No matter how big this year’s production is, it will always be tiny compared to stockpiles. In fact, data shows new gold production is always around 1.5% of existing stockpiles. Even when prices spiked violently like in the 1970’s, new annual gold supply never exceeded 2% of stockpiles. This blogpost I wrote shows you a plot of stockpiles and annual growth rates:

This is the fundamental reason gold maintains its monetary role in the long-run. No matter what happens, gold can never experience an increase in the supply. This is also, ironically, the reason why the gold price is so volatile in the post-1971 era: Since the new supply is practically irrelevant to price determination, small shifts in the sentiment of holders and potential buyers are all that swings price. For consumable commodities, new annual supply is very important to price determination, and it can react to mediate and reduce price swings.