It’s always the team that was “wrong,” never the prediction. Hou overachieved and MN underachieved because the predictions were “right” but the team was “wrong.”
Hou added Gordon and Anderson and, most importantly, D’Antoni in the offseason. How can someone possibly predict something they’ve never seen? Nobody could tell you how those pieces would mesh.
Giving Harden the MVP because his team did better than expectations seems a bit silly.