Diane James leads the fight to keep UKIP relevant, and Labour has to fight its newest problem

As UKIP elect its successor to Nigel Farage, the party looks to pull the rug from beneath Labour in its Working Class heartlands — but it faces its own problems of relativity and and infighting.

As members of the UK Independence Party gathered in Bournemouth for the party’s annual conference, the summer’s second leadership contest came to a close. As the Green Party elected Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley as co-leaders just two weeks ago, making history with the first party to have ‘co-leaders’, UKIP too made history, Electing its first woman leader with the South East MEP Diane James on 47% of the vote.

James’ character makes a significant from the pint-drinking, cricket-club-like figure that Nigel Farage utilised so well to break through to the working class vote — the vote that, ultimately, won the EU Referendum for the ‘Leave’ campaign. instead, James presents a new, fresh and less confrontational form of leadership for the party that achieved strong second places in Labour’s working class northern heartlands in 2015, alongside electing seven Welsh Assembly Members in 2016 alongside successes in the English Local election results and two London Assembly Members.

Diane James now presents a toned down, more reasonable approach able to capture many of the voters that were turned off by Farage’s outlandishness and the somewhat intolerable views he expressed throughout his years in the media spotlight as leader. The new leadership style presents UKIP with an opportunity: instead of being seen as an outsiders party, it can begin to fight the Labour Party in its heartlands on an equal ticket of respectability and credibility. That fight is made interesting with the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, who is expected to win the leadership election of the Labour Party when the third of three summer leadership elections closes in the coming weeks.

Corbyn is of course deeply unliked by the general electorate and even by a majority of Labour supporters. 58% of the electorate hold an unfavourable view of Jeremy Corbyn according to Britain elects and Ipsos Mori:

Corbyn’s failings make for an interesting definition with UKIP on the scene. While in 2015 Labour did well in the majority of its own areas, it did not do so well in swing seats. However, Corbyn’s poor favourability and Labour’s poor polling suggests that there is a shift across the country away from Labour towards both UKIP and the Conservatives, meaning that if UKIP can can facilitate itself as the “stop Labour” party in the majority of seats, it can win in even some of the most Labourite areas.

This is, theoretically, a more plausible situation under James than under Nigel Farage’s leadership. Diane James is softer and calmer, a more Nathan Gill (UKIP Wales Leader) figure than the confrontational Farage. This bodes well when talking to Conservative and more ‘moderate’ Labour voters who can be convinced to leave the Labour Party only by both a popular and credible alternative. The danger for Labour is that UKIP under James’ leadership is more likely to fit that alternative.

UKIP’s challenge: What is UKIP?

James’ initial and primary challenge will be keeping UKIP relevant. UKIP has been treated as a major party over the past four years thanks to its increase in council seats, it winning the European Elections in 2014 and its record vote share in a General Election in 2015. In 2016 it won two London AMs and seven Welsh AMs and continues with one Westminster MP. All of that success was on the back of a message that resonated with some voters: leaving the European Union and curbing immigration. The former has now been achieved in a referendum.

In that case, what is UKIP? Of course it must influence the withdrawal from the European Union if it is to remain relevant in the short term. The policies of withdrawal from the single market and a curb on immigration are of course key UKIP policies that, like all parties, it should seek to implement through the ‘Brexit’ negotiations. But what about the long term goals of UKIP? That is of course leaving the European Union. Just as if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014, the SNP would have faced crisis, UKIP now faces an internal constitutional crisis.

Are UKIP a Libertarian party? A neo-Thatcherite party? A party of the populist centre-left and socially conservative? That is the issue: while UKIP have multiple factions each claiming UKIP is or can be on of these, it cannot unite o what to be. If it becomes a Libertarian or neo-Thatcherite party it risks alienating Labour voters which it needs to win in the Northern heartlands and in South Wales. If it becomes a populist centre-left party with socially conservative values it may become a party confined to the ‘grey’ vote, while alienating many Conservative-leaning voters and members suspicious of the state control and policies such as the nationalisation of the railways.

The challenge Diane James now faces is one faced by very few party leaders. A party that has ‘won’, yet is disunited and must reform in order to remain both relevant and successful. Without a stable ideology or new goal the party will not survive or may lose support among its current base of supporters who could just as easily be scooped up by a resurgent Conservative of Labour Party, or an alternative third party. Ultimately, James’ leadership of UKIP will be a leadership that defines what UKIP is, and whether the party can continue to compete in Britain’s political spectrum, and if UKIP cannot find what it’s aims are and its place on that political spectrum, then any notion of further electoral success may well evaporate.