Centuries ago, man’s only job is to work on fields and grow edibles. As his needs diversified, his jobs too diversified. Job titles like carpenter, blacksmith etc. came into light.
Soon industrial revolution brought in more variation into human’s work. Importantly, the place of work shifted from fields and homes to factories and offices. In no time machinery started dominating the workplace.
Then came the information technology (IT) revolution. Initially computers took up data entry tasks easing man’s work to enter loads of data on paper. On the next phase, computers started doing more work like managing appointments, analyzing data etc. so that man can concentrate on higher level jobs like programming, research etc. Slowly human presence in back office was reduced to almost zero.
During all these phases, man was constantly afraid of losing his job to the modern inventions. Fortunately his fears proved baseless as new technologies created new opportunities. What was happening all these times was distribution of workforce between existing fields of work and new fields. For example, industrial revolution created new jobs in factories, but it did not do away with the work on fields. Man always needs food to grow on fields. Similarly computers eased the data entry but they could not eradicate the necessity of work in factories to produce physical goods.
Now give a grand welcome to artificial intelligence (AI)! This is also loosely called as machine learning, cognitive learning, robotics etc. This invention is going to impact man’s job unprecedentedly. Why? Let us examine how AI is different from other inventions and how its impact on man’s jobs is an unprecedented one.
AI can learn on its own
One aspect that differentiates AI from other technologies is its learning capability. Yes, AI learns on its own. Feed different images of cats to an image recognition program and it will start recognizing different breeds of cats. Wonderful thing about AI is it may create a superior classification of cat breeds.
Let us consider more practical examples. If we input large number of patients’ medical history to an AI program, it will start predicting diseases in advance. Similarly by analyzing stock market history, AI will give us the accurate predictions of ups and downs of stocks.
In summary, AI thinks better than humans. AI makes better analysis. AI makes better decisions. These statements may seem just assumptions or predictions of future, but truth is we are making big strides in artificial intelligence. AI is almost here and now!
What does it all mean to man’s job?
The inventions and technologies we have seen previously were just focused on achieving particular tasks whereas AI is aimed to think like humans and do all possible tasks in a superior manner.
Let us take an example and assume that a person, called X, is leaving through all the phases of changes in human’s work culture and see how his job role keeps on changing and what happens to him when AI comes into picture.
This person X started his career working in fields and growing his own food. Soon there is an explosion of population and people start falling ill often. X realizes there will be a lot of demand for doctors and he can make a lot of money by treating the sick. So he learns medicine and starts practicing.
His prediction is correct because his hospital is full of patients always. As he could no more manage his work alone he appoints a receptionist to manage appointments. His staff soon increases to three to manage appointments, prescriptions and other back office work.
One fine day, Doctor X comes to know about computer. This magic machine can manage appointments, store prescription history, get feedback from patients and many more things. What a wonderful companion at work! X immediately fires his two employees and asks the remaining one to train on computer and use it for managing the hospital. X patted himself for saving lot of effort and money.
Now enters AI! It starts reading the patient’s history from X’s computer. AI analyzes huge data records and categorizes patients based on numerous factors like symptoms, family history, weather and what not! It soon starts giving better medicines and predicting diseases in advance.
Patients are now coming to see AI, not doctor X. Also the number of patients dwindles as AI is diagnosing the diseases accurately and giving better medicines to the patients. Another positive thing is AI sees more patients in less time.
As a result X fires his only employee and starts managing the appointments himself! Doctor X is now acting as a counselor, giving a human touch to the patients while AI manages diagnosis, prescriptions, surgeries and all.
What can we deduct from this example?
- Artificial intelligence can handle highly intellectual activities in the fields of medicine, legal etc.
- Artificial intelligence can also handle work requiring physical power in factories and mines.
- It means we are going to lose most of our work to artificial intelligence whether it is intellectual or physical work. In other words, AI can look after human being’s entire work needs.
- It is going to be difficult for human beings to find new fields which will pay them financially and which can not be done by AI.
Repercussions of this evolution
Following chain reaction triggers:
- All companies will start using AI to minimize their costs.
- This will obviously result in job loss. Only 10 to 20% of current job holders will have jobs.
- As a result, people will have less money to buy.
- Due to decreasing buying power and uneven wealth distribution, companies will see huge loses as there is no market for their goods. This will lead to financial crunch worldwide across all fields.
This can be explained in a better way with a simple example. Let us assume a fictional town, called ‘Z’, with the population of 10,000. Various organizations and factories located in the town takes care of the needs of these 10,000 people. And working population in the town is 6,000. They work hard and take care of the remaining people like their children and old parents.
Now artificial intelligence has taken over the town Z’s job market. As a result, many workers and employees lost their jobs. Only 20% of 6000 are employed now. In other words, only 1200 people have buying power.
There is a car manufacturing company in ‘Z’. The town uses their cars for their transportation needs. Before the advent of AI, they used to manufacture 1000 cars per year with a price tag of USD 2000. After AI, they successfully cut down their employees and costs. Now they manufacture 2000 cars per year with the price tag of USD 1000.
But the unfortunate thing is they can only sell 20% of what they used to sell. They are selling only 200 cars per year. These cars are bought by current working population of 1200. If we consider the price slash of 50%, these people can now afford 2 cars. In that case, the sales might be in the range of 200 to 400 cars. There is no market for the remaining 1600 cars. What are they going to do with these 1600 cars?
In this scenario, artificial intelligence is not at all helping human beings. Instead it is wreaking havoc on the economic status.
Equal work distribution is the solution
We cannot afford economic inequality that arises from artificial intelligence. So whatever the work left which cannot be done by AI should be distributed equally among humans.
Suppose we have 100 doctors in town ‘Z’ before AI. With AI, this number will gradually come down to 80, 70, 50 and so on until we see a stabilization around 15 to 20 doctors. This would happen when we stick to the rule that humans have to work 8 hours to earn their living. But this rule of 8 hours workday will not be relevant in the age of AI.
So doctors have to work less hours to accommodate or share work with their colleagues. The working hours too must come down gradually from 8 hours to 7, 6, 4 or even 2 hours.
This applies to all kinds of jobs irrespective of industries and fields. Of course, there might be some difference how work distribution takes place. Below are some arrangements we might witness:
- Based on work in a day. Ex: A days work will be distributed among employees. In this case, employees work daily 2 to 4 hours to share the work.
- Based on work in a week. Ex: One employee works one day for 8 hrs. His colleagues work on other days in the week.
- Based on work in a month. Ex: one employee or group of employees work for a whole week and other employees take care of other weeks in the month.
- Based on work in a year. Ex: work can be divided into small projects each lasting 1 or 2 months in a year. Employees work full time during this time on that particular project. Other employees take care of the work during remaining months.
We would see lot of creative variations based on our needs and requirements. But the primary focus of this work distribution is equal distribution of wealth. In summary, we work two or three hours a day but receive salary or compensation equal to or more than what we are getting now for 8 hours a day.
What are we going to do with our free time?
Only 2 or 4 hours of work per day sounds very tempting. But what are we going to do with the free time? How are we going to spend it?
For centuries humans are working hard for long hours in factories and offices. We always believe that we should work hard to earn our living. Now AI is going to change that perception. While AI is working on our behalf in our banks, factories, hospitals and offices, we can go back looking after our basic needs.
We can spend more time with our families. We can spend more time in our kitchens making food for our loved ones. We can spend time teaching our kids. We can spend time fulfilling our creative needs and traveling across the globe.
Artificial intelligence has the capability to offer great times for human beings if we use it responsibly.
