Brexit Look Ahead — a first draft.

I’ve been trying to put together a Brexit-focused look ahead. It is to make sense of the political risks rather than the policy risks. I’m working on an iterative basis using secondary sources for now. If you have any suggestions on any omissions or glaring errors, then I’d welcome your comments.

Next Few Weeks

20th February — 22rd February — House of Lords to pass Second Reading of the Bill (unlikely to be voted down by long speeches)

27th February — House of Lords — Amendments tabled for Committee Stage (any divisions here will become very high profile)

End February 2017 — Lloyds of London to confirm plans to relocate a subsidiary into Europe (soft redomiciling) (Irish Times)

1st March 2017 — House of Lords — Amendments tabled for Committee Stage (Day 2) (any votes here very important)

2nd March 2017 — House of Lords Debate on Brexit and Trade Policy implications — Report Stage and 3rd Reading of Article 50 Bill

2nd March 2017 — If Lords Amends Article 50 Bill, then the Article 50 Bill returns to Commons for another vote

2nd March 2017 — Informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers (possible Boris to attend) (Consilium)

2nd March 2017 — Northern Ireland Assembly Elections (and possibly new First Minister)

Next Month

3rd March 2017 — Chancellor gives Spring Budget (which should include policy decisions over funding guarantees after Brexit)

7th March 2017 — Government “deadline” for the Lords to pass the Brexit Bill (Express — note — there is no actual sanction for any delay)

8th March 2017 — House of Lords Committee meeting over Brexit for Agriculture

8th March 2017 — If the Government can’t command a majority in the Commons to overrule the Lords, then it may debate amendments before seeking Royal Assent

8th March 2017 — Joint Ministerial Committee (Europe) meeting with devolved nations and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (?)

9th March 2017 — European Council meeting in Malta and potential opportunity for May to make speech regarding withdrawal from the EU

10th March 2017 — European Parliament likely to set out the position of MEP’s to approve any deal between UK/EU (Verhofstadt)

13th March 2016 — Expected date of Royal Assent for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill 2016–17

Mid-March 2017 –When May is expected to trigger Article 50 according to “sources” (Telegraph)

15th March 2017 — Dutch General Elections with largest governing group nominating Dutch Prime Minister

17th March 2017 — European Commission think Member States can transfer some refugees entering via Greece back to Greece (Ministers are unsure and Commons Select Committee has asked they consider participating in this policy carefully)

25th March 2017–60th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome — (Consilium)

30th March — House of Commons rises for Easter recess again (technically purdah in many areas)

31st March 2017 — Government’s own deadline to trigger Article 50 (Davis)

Later in this quarter

1st April 2017 — April Fools Day and also when academics will get funding for “expert” evidence about Brexit (ESRC)

8th April 2017 — EU Leaders rumoured to meet to finalise Barnier’s negotiating mandate (rumour for ECOFIN)

15th April 2017 — European Commission may inform the UK that it will take it to the ECJ over breaching air pollution limits (Guardian)

18th April 2017 — Queen’s Speech (- “My Government will leave the European Union”) and the Great Repeal Bill published. Immigration Bill to be announced likely to impose restrictions on EU nationals working, residing or studying in the UK

23rd April 2017 — First round of the French Presidential election

April 2017 — UK to firm up positions on high priority sectors including banking/financial services, air transport, automotive, pharma, insurance (Times) which may mean announcing transitional arrangements to ensure Single Market access. (based on Lansons)

April 2017 — European Parliament will debate modernising EU rules on social security. EU proposals place the onus on the UK to pay for unemployment of workers posted abroad but also unemployed can claim benefits if they have worked in the EU for at least three months. Member states will be given the right to refuse access to benefits to EU nationals who are economically active. (I think this was at least part of the deal Cameron agreed with the EU)

1st May 2017 — Expected date by which Davis/Barnier negotiations will commence (Verhofstadt) with leaks likely to dominate press coverage

5th May 2017 — Scottish & Welsh local government elections, Mayoral elections including West Midlands, Manchester, Cambridge, Liverpool, West of England and Tees Valley

7th May 2017 — France — in case of run-off, French Presidential election between top two candidates

11th May — G7 Summit for Finance Ministers (Hammond) and Central Bank Governors (Carney) (G8 — Toronto)

25th May 2017 — House of Commons rises for Whitsun recess (MP’s back to constituencies)

26th May 2017 — G7 Summit in Italy with Trump and May along with Juncker and Tusk (Hotel Villa Schuler) (Reuters)

By end May 2017 — NATO Summit in Brussels which Trump will attend

Rest of the Year

June 20th 2017 — Joint Ministerial Committee (Europe) meetings with devolved national leaders and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (?)

June 22nd 2017 — European Council meeting (Consilium)

June 23rd 2017–1 Year Anniversary for the EU Referendum

June 2017 — Japanese Banks may opt to relocate if no reassurance over passporting into EU (FT)

June 2017 — Proposal for UK to co-operate with the EU on consumer protection policy (BEIS) to be confirmed by Brexit

1st July 2017 — Holyrood — There may be a Scottish Independence Referendum 3 in response to consultation (SNP) (SNP)

July 2017 — MP’s should have voted by now at least once on the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972 (Great Repeal Bill)

By Summer 2017 — Davis/Barnier — agreement reached over EU nationals (if early agreement reached with all member states)

24th September 2017 — German Federal Elections (with Governing Group appointing new Leader)

1st October 2017 — Conservative Party Conference in Manchester (Conservative Party)

November 2017 — Chancellor Autumn Budget (after Spending Review)

November/December 2017 — EU Budget (with UK contributions to pay “for their round”) to be signed off by European Parliament for 2018 (DG Budget) (Margaritis Schinas)

December 2017 — Slovenian Presidential Election and EU Parl view on “European assets” Britain can use to offset liabilities

By end 2017 — Davis/Barnier — agreement reached over transitional figure for UK liabilities towards the EU budget while EU Parliament can then agree what post-Brexit EU Budget will look like for member states remaining in the European Union (DG Budget)

Next Year

Early 2018 — Digital Single Market (European Parliament) including right of people in the UK to view content from other EU member states

March 2018 — Russian Presidential Elections (Putin can stand)

25th May 2018 — UK Government to implement General Data Protection Regulation (ICO) (DCMS)

Early May 2018 — Local Government elections (including 1/3 of Portsmouth)

October 2018 — Barnier’s preferred deadline for UK to agree a Brexit deal with the European Union (Barnier)

1st October 2018 — Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham

October/November 2018- May — European Council meeting to agree UK/EU Brexit Deal

10th-13th December 2018 — Verhofstadt — last European Parliament plenary session of 2018 (to approve Brexit deal) (Europarl)

19th December 2018 — House of Common’s rises for recess (?) — no further votes possible e.g. “deal or no deal”

20st December 2018 — House of Lords rises for recess (?)

By December 2018 — Ratification of the UK-EU deal in the House of Commons/House of Lords

Next Few Years

1st January 2019 — Date Brexit agreement comes into force so UK can announce trade deals with other countries (Liam Fox MP)

February 2019 — Possible details to emerge on UK-EU trade deal (Davis)

March 2019 — Brexit deal/Transitional arrangements ratified by EU Council, Member States and European Parliament (Schulz) (Barnier) (May)

April 2019 — Britain will have “withdrawn” from the European Union subject to transitional arrangements (Express) (note, this is a crucial date for UK expats in the European Union, particularly pensioners and non-working age nationals given Regulation 883/2004). Immigration Bill measures on EU nationals expected to commence

May 2019 — European Parliament elections (which on this timetable won’t include MEPs from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland)

7th May 2020 — UK General Election returning MP’s to the House of Commons

March 2021 — One notional deadline for transitional arrangements to cease to have effect (Davis)

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