The challenge of valuing a token economy before the economy exists is that you have to apply a simple model. One way in which the economics of XLM could greatly shift is if it becomes a consumer wallet solution. Even if people didn’t HODL, save, or spend XLM they would need to maintain a minimum XLM balance in order to transact. The staking would decrease the amount of circulating XLM, decreasing the average velocity, and theoretically leading to a higher token price. This is just one case in which it would change the economics, not a bull case for XLM.
The beauty of such platforms is that they enable new applications and innovations to be built on top, leading to new value creation that exceeds previously-assumed TAM (see innovator’s dilemma, Uber’s valuation vs 2010 global taxi market cap).