Well said Tobias, I fully agree, we are in an interregnum. I wrote something similar myself a few days ago — comparing Trump with Hitler. Both used the same FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) tactics — jobs, immigrants, great again to gain power.
Brexit maybe the ‘butterfly wing’ moment that brings Le Pen and Trump to power. Brexit has certainly given the far right supporters believe they too can close the door (borders) to the problems of the world and go it alone.
History tells us that Britain, more than any other country, has caused many of our problems we see today:
After WW1 we broke up the Ottoman Empire. We created random borders and despots — see Churchill’s Hiccup, and had secret treaties — see The Treaty of Sèvres (the Jewish Problem) which included the three principles of the British Balfour Declaration regarding Palestine. And don’t get me started on Britain’s role in Afghanistan and Pakistan/India. The British chose divide and conquer as their strategy and left chaos and destruction when they left.
I would disagree slightly that the Arch Duke’s assassination caused the WW1. IMHO it was simply the catalyst but the war occurred because of family argument between three royal cousins who teased the German cousin for his disability that was the real butterfly wing moment.
But that was then and this is now. I hope you are very wrong that Brexit may eventually lead to nuclear war. However the break-up of Europe feels inevitable and certainly has the hand of Putin all over it.
He will help it happen through the state funding of terrorism. He certainly has his hand in Syria which has caused the displacement of millions into Europe which causes further chaos which in turn furthers his goals. Whether he is funding ISIS or it’s Saudia Arabia or both only time/history will tell.
As for Trump, if Sanders voters choose to abstain and not support Clinton, Trump will get into power. Putin and Trump could then eventually create another cuban crisis stand-off but it maybe in Syria over Assad and maybe this time they don’t pull back from the abyss?
Or what I hope will happen. Clinton gets in and May, Merkel and even Marie Le Pen work together. Men have not done a great job with this planet so far. Maybe its time to give testosterone a break and stop all this macho fighting and let mother nature, female leaders and estrogen take charge.