China has built up its civil nuclear fleet from nothing to second worldwide. It is on track to become the world’s largest producer of nuclear power, yet it won’t lead a nuclear energy revolution. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. While nuclear power has stagnated globally, Chinese civil nuclear infrastructure has grown to 55 completed nuclear reactors with another 22 currently under construction. These have a total capacity of 53 gigawatts (GW) with another…

The most prestigious private security firm in the United States was founded on a unique vision of value to its prominent clients, but which also has some less obvious downsides. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. Wealthy and prominent people, as well as their families, associates, and organizations, can become targets for theft, extortion, kidnapping, stalking, or violence. While keeping a low profile or relying on police agencies can mitigate…

The Chinese founder of TikTok wants to build the first truly global tech company that captures both Chinese and American users at once. The U.S. government will likely stop him. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. TikTok was downloaded more than all three of Meta’s flagship apps-Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook-and more than twice as much as Snapchat. In total, TikTok has been downloaded over 3 billion times. In 2022, TikTok…

Originally published on November 25, 2022. One year ago today, we issued the first Bismarck Brief. Since then, our analysts have written over 250,000 words on the state of the world, from China to the United States and everything in between. Divided between 54 Briefs, this is equivalent to about…

The founder and CEO of Salesforce acts as a passive benefactor of institutional incumbents. His successes show that conventional strategies can work for tech founders. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. Despite a population of less than one million people, the city of San Francisco is arguably the most important hub for the tech industry in the United States, if not worldwide. In 2021, San…

Xi Jinping’s great power ambitions are making Southeast Asia more important to China’s future. But they are simultaneously constraining his options for negotiation and alliance. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. Southeast Asia has a growing population of nearly 700 million people and a combined GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) of over $10 trillion, about twice as much as Russia, Germany, or…

Pakistan should be the flagship success of China’s economic aid and investment programs abroad. Instead, it casts doubts on the viability of a Chinese economic world order. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy. To displace the United States as the global economic superpower, China has been pursuing an extensive foreign investment campaign, providing aid and infrastructure through its Belt and…

Recent shocks in the defense supply chain have shown a surprisingly functional system that nevertheless can’t adapt quickly or forecast its own shortfalls. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has created immense strain on U.S. weapons stockpiles due to the unexpected spike in demand for military aid. Around a third of Javelin missile stockpiles and a…

The state-funded foundations stabilize German politics, move national policy towards academic consensus, and act as a parallel foreign service without a foreign minister. — From the Bismarck Brief, a weekly intelligence-grade analysis of an important institution, industry, or live player. Germany is the most populous country in Europe, the continent’s largest industrial economy by far, and the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world, as well as a key supplier of machine tools…