Overview: What is Bodhi Prediction Market?
Bodhi (Ticker: BOT) is a prediction market.
What is QTUM? Bodhi is built on Qtum?
Yes, Bodhi is a DApp on the Qtum Blockchain (Ticker: QTUM). The qtum blockchain is a hybrid of bitcoin and ethereum taking good parts of both: BTC’s UTXO and Ethereum’s EVM. Qtum is also focused on being a mobile-first blockchain because people in china don’t use computers much, but do everything on their phones. Bodhi is the first DApp to deploy on Qtum’s testnet.
So what does the Bodhi DApp do?
So they’re a prediction market on Qtum. They launched the alpha on the Qtum testnet and it’s up and running now, so I can go try out the alpha now.
How do I try out the platform? https://medium.com/@samsuh_33856/bodhi-prediction-market-alpha-walkthrough-b723ce415696
It seems kinda complicated. What’s up with that?
Qtum is a competitor to Ethereum if that wasnt clear. They have their own protocol and own standards. Like Ethereum has erc20, qtum has qrc20. Erc20 is not compatible with qrc20.
What is a prediction market, exactly?
A prediction market is basically a system where you can create any event with limited outcomes. e.g. who will win the 2018 world cup? what will be the temperature at 7am local time in Delhi, India tomorrow according to weather.com?
If people are interested in the outcome of that particular event, they can stake the outcome they think will be most likely. this is essentially ‘betting’ on that outcome. these events are either:
- binary outcomes (yes/no type) or
- multiple choice type (choice a, b, c, d, up to 10)
I’ve heard of prediction markets before. Is this like Augur or Gnosis?
The way the result/outcome is officially established and finalized is the part where Bodhi is more advanced than other prediction markets like Augur and Gnosis. On the other systems people use their voting tokens to vote on the outcome, and that result is finalized and can never be changed — even if it’s wrong.
Meaning on Augur, if you owned a huge amount of REP tokens, you could potentially manipulate the answer to be set to the incorrect outcome. Or on Gnosis you can designate the oracle (person who sets the result), and the oracle is a single point of attack that can be messed with; ddos the oracle, etc.
The way bodhi’s outcome determination is different is that it lets you designate anyone to choose an outcome, you can even choose yourself to choose the outcome if you want. But the person assigned to choose an outcome has to put up some money (the amount doesnt matter all that much, as long as it’s not just nominal).
Can you give me an example of how all this would work?
Creating the Prediction Event:
Lets say you’re making the event, and you choose yourself to designate the outcome. you would stake 100 BOT, for example, to choose the outcome. When ANY outcome is submitted, the alternative outcome is automatically generated as another prediction event. Lets say I created an event to try to predict the event “Will BTC break 20k in 2017? yes/no”.
Choosing the initial Oracle, and setting the initial Outcome:
→ I put up 100 BOT to be able to set the outcome. But I decide to lie and say BTC did NOT break 20k, when it actually did. When i set that outcome, the system automatically creates an event “YES. BTC did break 20k” now if 100% of the world agrees with me, nothing happens and my 100 BOT is returned to me, and i win all the bets. but if anyone disagrees, they can stake their BOT on the “YES, BTC did break 20k” outcome against my “NO, BTC did NOT break 20k” outcome. You, or anyone else holding BOT, can bet however much money against my 100 BOT. So if everyone knows BTC went over 20k, or you prove it somehow, it comes back as “YES, BTC did break 20k” is likely the correct answer.
→ This can continue recursively. If i STILL think “BTC did NOT break 20k”, I can challenge that outcome in the same fashion, but this time the challenge gets more expensive by 10% (fixed for now in the Alpha) and Ihave to put up NEW money into that new bet. So now I’ve put up my original 100 BOT, and a fresh new 110 BOT so i have 210 BOT on the line for this outcome. Also others who agree with me can pitch in on my side during any of these rounds and others against me can stake against me. This goes on forever until one side gives up — then all that additional BOT goes to the winners.
Question: How many people can participate at once? Is it like a public pool?
Answer: The entire network can participate, and ultimately if this escalates, this in and of itself becomes a prediction event, so users are encouraged to back a side. If this escalates all the way up where half the market is on either side, the Bodhi Foundation can be the tie breaker with their holdings of 40% the BOT token to pass final judgement. This holding also prevents any single user from being able to game the system by controling 51% of the market, as the recursive replaceable oracle mechanism becomes so expensive so as to make such a malicious action unprofitable.
If this isnt erc20 compatible, do I have to use a different wallet than Metamask/MEW?
Yes. You must use a Qtum-compatible wallet to hold or transfer BOT Tokens.
Here’s a tutorial I did on how to set up a Qtum qrc20 compatible wallet on QBao. https://medium.com/@samsuh_33856/qtum-wallet-tutorial-for-bodhi-bot-tokens-qrc20-tokens-using-qbao-ac14f9445dc8
If you guys have more questions I’m happy to try to answer them.