Everyone is to blame but Jeremy apparently….
I’ve written enough about this not to need to Labour (pardon the pun) the point anymore, and nor can I be bothered to. Except to share some basic updates following last nights bi election results for those still insisting it isn’t Jeremy's fault and that things will improve.
Firstly, they won’t. Not at all. From here on into the parliamentary cycle most opposition polling, particularly Labour, peaks mid parliament and then starts to decline. In addition, what happened last night is truly unprecedented in a way the short term news cycle completely understates. In that light it is important to take a moment to see just how enormous of a metaphorical shit Labour is actually in;
- No opposition party has lost a bi-election since 1982.
- Labour lost vote shares in both Copeland and Stoke.
- A party in government overseeing a cuts budget, massive increases in debt, stagnant living standards, stagnant real wage increases and in its 7th year of government won one seat from the opposition and increased its vote share in another. This has never happened before.
- Labour has held stoke since 1950 and nearly lost it, had it not been for the conservatives splitting the UKIP vote.
- Labour has held Copeland and its forbear seat since 1935 and today lost it to a party in its 7th year in government.
- Even William Hague in Blairs peak of popularity won Bi-elections and increased vote shares for the conservatives in council elections.
- Labour has basically alienated 1% of it’s vote share per 3 months since Jeremys election.
- Jeremy has the worst negative personal polling of any party leader ever, worse then Michael foot in 1983, who went on to Labours worst defeat.
- The government has an 18pt lead and May a 35pt lead in personal polling as to who is the right person to lead the country, which usually overstates labours support.
- Labour to form a government need 100 seats, 90 conservative with majorities over 3000.
- Yet talk to any Labour member and it’s all going swell. Go figure…..
- With the boundary changes and polling at around 24% labour will decline below 170 seats and lose Labour strongholds in Hull, South Yorkshire and even some Manchester seats.
Yet despite all this, none of it is Jeremys fault apparently…..