MLB Betting Series: Top Picks for the 2024 National League MVP
With the MLB season right around the corner, I decided to start a blog series where I discuss some of my favorite bets for this upcoming season. This week, I’ll focus on my top picks for the National League MVP.
Right away, there are a couple of players that I’d like to cross off the list. Let’s start with The Dodgers’ Big 3: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani. While each of these players are future 1st ballot Hall of Famers, I think it will be challenging for one of them to win the MVP with all three in the same lineup. Voters may end up being split on who to choose, and Betts, Freeman, or Ohtani would need a standout season to really capture the voters attention. Another player who might need such a season is the reigning NL MVP, Ronald Acuna. Acuna at +550 seems like a steal, especially after the numbers he put up last year. However, there hasn’t been a repeat MVP since Miguel Cabrera won the AL MVP in 2012 & 2013. With all the talent in the National League right now, I think it’s too hard for a player, even a great one like Ronald Acuna, to repeat.
Now, let’s get into some of the players I do like.
2024 NL MVP Picks:
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000): Three years ago, people were saying Fernando Tatis Jr. was on his way to becoming the face of baseball. After suffering a wrist injury in 2022 that required surgery and getting popped for an 80-game suspension for PED use, the hype around Tatis Jr. as the next face of baseball has started to fade away. Questions arose about this generational talent’s ability to consistently stay on the field. Tatis Jr. answered those questions when he came back from his suspension in late April of 2023. Of the 142 eligible games that Tatis Jr. was able to play in, he only missed one. During that time, he hit .257 with 25 HRs and 78 RBIs along with 29 stolen bases. It may not have been the season that he was hoping for production-wise, but his ability to stay on the field consistently should be considered a win. If he can stay healthy, I see him returning to his 2021 form, where he hit .282 batting average with 42 HRs, 97 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases.
Bryce Harper (+1100): Two years removed from being named MVP of the National League, Bryce Harper is once again looking to reclaim that honor. After undergoing Tommy John surgery over a year and a half ago, Harper made one of the fastest recoveries of any position player in the history of Major League Baseball. Returning to the Phillies lineup as a DH/1B in early May of last year, Harper boasted a .293 batting average, a .900 OPS while hitting 29 HRs and 72 RBIs. This upcoming season marks the first time Harper is fully healthy since his MVP campaign in 2021, fueling expectations of a surge in his offensive production.
Corbin Carroll (+2000): In June of last year, Corbin Carroll led the league in slugging, on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) and was tied with Freddie Freeman for 1st place in the NL for fWAR. Carroll continued to produce throughout the rest of year, putting on one of the best rookie seasons in MLB history and helping lead his team to the World Series. His outstanding play was well recognized as he won Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the NL MVP voting race. Now, with a full MLB season under his belt and an offseason to get stronger, I expect him to pick up right where he left off.
Manny Machado (+2800): Some people tend to forget how good of a player Manny Machado is. Year after year, Machado continues to put up All-Star numbers as he paves his way to the Hall of Fame. Despite a perceived “down” year in which Machado hit .258 with 30 HRs and 91 RBIs, I’m confident that he is primed for a bounce-back season. With one less star, Juan Soto, in the Padres lineup, there is going to be a need for more offensive production. Machado has never been afraid of the moment and will be ready to capitalize on this opportunity.
Trea Turner (+2200): Before signing an 11-year $300,000,000 deal with the Phillies, Turner was arguably a top 15 player in all of baseball. From 2019–2022 with WSN & LAD, he hit .311/.361/.508 with 26 HRs and 91 RBIs per 162-game average. Unfortunately, 2023 was not the year he had hoped for. With a career high in strikeouts, career lows in batting average & on-base percentage, Turner faced one of his most challenging offensive seasons in his career. Despite the initial struggles to begin his tenure with the Phillies, the 9-year veteran rebounded impresivley toward the end of the season. Over his final 211 at-bats, Turner hit an outstanding .337 with a 1.057 OPS and 16 home runs, contributing to the Phillies journey to the NLCS. Now, with one of his worst offensive years behind him, and the unwavering support of the Philadelphia crowd, Turner is poised to reclaim the form that made him the player he once was.
The Longshot:
Elly De La Cruz (+6000): Elly De La Cruz burst onto the scene in June last year immediately establishing himself as one of the most exciting players in the league. The 6’5 SS/3B possesses remarkable speed, a cannon for an arm, and the ability to hit NUKES. He had a hot start to his big-league career, batting .307 with 3 HRs, 2 triples, 21 runs, and 12 RBIs in his first 88 at-bats. He also showcased his speed with 9 stolen bases during that time. Despite his electrifying debut, Elly went on to experience an up-and-down season, primarily due to his tendency to chase pitches, mainly off-speed, outside the zone. Despite this, he still managed to finish 3rd in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year. If Cruz can develop better plate discipline and secure an everyday role, he has all the tools needed to emerge as the next MVP of the National League. And for +6000 I’ll defintely take the chance.
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
