Discussing without ‘basic cause elements’
When we were learning ‘Systems thinking’, we were told of a story of a report on milk production and consumption for next 5 years. The entire report had lot of statistics, trend analysis, direct and indirect factors and so on. Only one factor was missing: cow population and their growth rate. It is the same like peace talks, which Taleb talks about. People who want peace do not engage in peace. Others engage.