Nothing is happening

A market update:

• FB hasn’t moved at all. Since Aug 1, the thing has traded in a $3.50 range (2.9% peak-trough range), and is down $.20 in that time. I’ve been selling 2week 126-ish calls, against my core long. I also sold a small amount of spot around 124.75, I plan to add in mid-Sep once Apple and Fed are out of the way. I’ll continue to sell calls for now, and while I”m bullish, I am concerned about the decreasing short interest (.74% right now). It’s at the lowest point since 12/31/15; we saw this happen last July, right before a material uptick in realized vol (*cough* limit down Aug).
• ONDK, I’ve bot more down around $6. I think this stock has caught a bit of the LendingClub flu, and at ~20% of IPO price, improving origination pipeline, revenues, and a nice spike post-earnings gives me confidence the downside here is limited. Finally, short interest is near 2y highs. He knows.
• TWTR — why do I own this? I’ve pared this down to be a small % of holdings, and I’m just sitting here waiting for a headline that MSFT or someone hoovers this thing up in the $30–40 area. I’m willing to lose like 50% on what I own right now, in exchange for future bragging rights at any party that “I owned it before it got acquired”. If the stock gets down to $15 somehow, I’ll probably start selling puts, but for now it’s going to collect dust in my mental corner.
• GDX — lots of heartburn here, not sure what to do. I think gold is too crowded, and everyone has bought into the precious metals parade. But, the market expects no Sep hike, which means the gold train keeps chugging. RSIs are telling me I should add, and instead I’m looking at what calls I can sell for premium. This has disaster written all over it. I think I’m going to reduce this on rallies (I sold 20% today, after yday’s bloodbath…ugh), with an aim to be 50% into the Fed. I really don’t know.
  Side note here — UVXY has started to put in higher highs. I’m not sure this means a hike or anything (who the fuck knows), but market worries are starting to manifest. Short-dated VIX going higher in late August is classic “PM is out East for summer, sends order from phone while at Surf Lodge because he wants to protect his +2.8% YTD” trade. If the VIX jumps, and the Fed does NOT hike (so, the market sells off due to growth concerns, whatever) — GDX should rip. But if the quant fund buildup into metals is real, then a market selloff will trigger portfolio stops and GDX might actually underperform short-term. Long-term, that would set up a sexy “short VIX long Gold” RV trade, which is something I am keeping at least one eye on in Sep/Oct. Short-term, it means I should right-size the position. Same goes for SLV.
• USDCAD - The object of my pain this month. CAD data sucks, USD data rules, but Yellen isn’t gellin’ so we don’t hike. Plus the long USD folks want to cut gains ahead of a dovish Sep meeting (or just want to collect rare profits), and as such $/CAD goes from 1.32 to 1.275 in an easy month. I’ve been buying on the way down — 1.31, 1.30, 1.285, 1.2775. I pieced out of some of what I purchased around 1.295, and looking to add more near 1.285 on the belief higher lows will rule into Jackson Hole. But there is definite risk that a Fed that doesn’t hike, and rates that careen lower, could bring this down to 1.25. So for now, I’m taking gains when I have them, “trading it around” and waiting for extremes to take shots. I’m learning that with FX, patience is the biggest virtue one can have.