They Changed Their Tune!

Sara Causey
3 min readJul 3, 2022

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Photo by anvesh baru on Unsplash

Not long ago, perusing CNBC would make you feel pretty bullish. I talked about this many times on my podcast — “nothing to see here people, everything’s fine!”

Except… was everything fine? I don’t think so!

Here’s but one example:

A red hot market! How about that!

Well, not so fast. That article has now been reframed:

I guess we’ll just ride into the recession with a battle of semantics. 😒

Earlier this week, we found:

Job loss is a ‘reality’ of the business cycle, says labor expert. Take these 6 key steps after a layoff.”

Wow. So we’ve gone from red hot markets and sunshine and roses to “Job loss is a reality.” I guess the bear market has gotten too obvious to ignore.

Certain economic factors are considered lagging indicators. In other words: by the time the data is reported, the poo has already hit the fan:

Certain things in the economy are considered “lagging indicators.” If you’ve never heard the term, here’s a handy explanation:

“A lagging indicator is an observable or measurable factor that changes sometime after the economic, financial, or business variable with which it is correlated changes. Lagging indicators confirm trends and changes in trends.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laggingindicator.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways-,A%20lagging%20indicator%20is%20an%20observable%20or%20measurable%20factor%20that,cost%20per%20unit%20of%20output.

What are some examples of a lagging indicator?

“Some general examples of lagging economic indicators include the unemployment rate, corporate profits, and labor cost per unit of output.” -from the same Investopedia article, emphasis mine

EXACTLY.

By the time you hear, “Uh-oh, unemployment is up across the country,” the poo-poo has already hit the fan in the job market.
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https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/06/27/lagging-indicators/

IMHO, by the time reporters start telling you, “Ruh-roh. Job losses are starting to pop up,” it’s too late. By the time the official unemployment rate appears high, it’s too late.

It’s not about panicking and running around like Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling.

IMHO, one of the best ways to prepare is to not get caught by surprise. Living in a land of gumdrops and lollipops where recessions and layoffs never happen is a fool’s paradise. Stay alert. Keep an eye on the market. Draw up a game plan of what you would need to do to survive a downturn. Talk with a professional financial planner if you need to. Knowledge truly is power.
-https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/05/17/preparation-not-panic/

Stay alert. Stay aware. Prepared but not panicked!

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Sara Causey

Staffing & Recruiting SME. Owner of Causey Consulting LLC. Proud introvert/INFJ. Bookworm. Podcaster. No nonsense.