Will Democrats make the Texas House their home, or will statewide candidates stand alone?

6 min readJul 27, 2022

By Sarah Batson

The Supreme Court ended its 2022 term with decisions that David Bernstein of Politico said, “could start to shift the entire locus of American power.” By sending important issues like abortion and climate change down to the states, the conservative majority on the bench allowed the Republican controlled state legislature in Texas to further outlaw abortion and deregulate polluters (Aguilar; Douglas).

This shift in power highlighted the significance of Democratic Party gains in Texas. In recent years, Democratic statewide candidates have reached a new high-water mark after two decades without a victory. I researched whether this progress is translating to Democratic Party strength in new areas of the state, and what this might mean for the Texas House.

In particular, I researched how well aligned Democratic House challenges were with gains by statewide Democratic candidates. My analysis looked at whether or not Democrats fielded candidates in House Districts and how this changed from election to election in relation to the gains made by Democratic statewide candidates over that same period. Looking at Texas House Districts allows for an understanding of whether Democratic strength is growing across the state or if it is limited to major urban counties that have maintained Democratic majorities in the two decades since Democrats won statewide.

Now it is clear that Democratic ambitions to take the House in 2020 were based on an optimistic assumption that gains by Beto O’Rourke in 2018 would smoothly translate into House District victories (Miller). This proved incorrect, but just how far from this goal are Democrats and does a bench exist for future cycles? These are important questions that my research helps answer.

Without control of the House, even if they win statewide in November, Democrats will struggle to pass meaningful legislation. With the top three Democratic statewide candidates all within single digits of their competitors in July 2022, these considerations are very serious (Cross et al.). While they will wield many non-legislative powers, legislation to fight climate change and improve health care are high priorities among Democratic voters that may be disappointed if they do not see progress (Cross).

My analysis looked at these factors over the eight years, comparing the two midterm and the two presidential elections. This first set of maps is based on data from the race for US Senate in Texas in 2014 and 2018. This race was chosen because of the notable increase in Democratic votes for Democratic Senate Candidate Beto O’Rourke based on Texas Secretary of State data. The map on the right represents whether there was a Democrat challenging a previously uncontested seat (dark red), a Republican with an uncontested race where previously there had been a Democratic challenger (dark blue), or a House District with consistent party challengers in both years (white).

These maps reveal a trend in that new Democratic challengers are most often in areas with a moderate Democratic gain, rather than a dramatic increase. In the middle of the state, above the Valley and to the west of Travis County there is a band of House Districts with new Democratic challengers, but only lukewarm gains by the statewide Democratic candidates. District 69 shows the opposite side of the trend. In spite of at least a ten point gain by Democrats, no Democratic challenger was fielded. These results are dramatic overall with Democratic challengers entering races for House districts all over the map. However, analysis of these trends for the most recent presidential elections yields a slightly different outcome.

Compared to the first visualization graphic, the map on the left above shows much less dramatic gains for Democrats. However, there are also fewer districts with the most dramatic losses by Democratic statewide candidates. Despite some gains in Central and East Texas, the most dramatic aspect of this visualization is the much worse performance in the Rio Grande Valley. This region moved the most and not in a favorable direction for Democrats, which reveals an organizing weakness for the Democratic Party.

Considering the addition of new Democratic House challengers, the overall reduced number is not indicative of backsliding as many now white districts may have now had Democratic challengers since 2016. North Texas is certainly the stand out area for favorable performance and growth by the Democratic Party organization. From 2018 to 2020, the party was able to field candidates in many districts where it had previously failed. West Texas though revealed some weaknesses, with many districts only fielding candidates in 2018.

My research showed that while the tremendous gains in 2018 were not to be matched in 2020, in many areas of the state the momentum had followed through. However, without consistency, challenging incumbent Republicans does not demonstrate Democratic organizing strength that can be built on in years to come. The middle of the state, branching out from Dallas down between Austin and Houston, remains the most consistent with Democratic gains showing in both maps with a slow, yet consistent growth in the House Districts challenged by Democratic candidates. Enthusiasm should not be underestimated. As 2018 demonstrated, with an exciting set of candidates, Democrats can launch into action and get big gains statewide as well as challenge incumbent Republican House members in areas far from the urban centers.

The progress made by Democrats these last eight years has put them in a position to at least be on the ballot in the districts they need to take back the House. They have slashed the number of Republicans who run unopposed for the Texas House. However, statewide candidates should not count on their popularity being enough to push their fellow Democrats running for the House over the line. Even if Democrats sweep their statewide slate, they will be counting on lots of rookie candidates in challenging districts to get lucky. As the Valley demonstrates, strength in one election is not enough to build a bench.

Sources:

Aguilar , Julián, and Gabrielle Muñoz. “Texas ‘Trigger Law’ to Ban Abortion Will Soon Go into Effect. Here Are the Details.” Texas Standard, 24 June 2022, www.texasstandard.org/stories/texas-trigger-law-abortion-ban-details/.

Bernstein, David. “The Supreme Court Could Foster a New Kind of Civil War.” Politico, 14 June 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/14/supreme-court-civil-war-00039543.

Cross, Renée. “Texas 2022 Elections & Issues.” University of Houston — Hobby School of Public Affairs, 8 Feb. 2022.

Cross, Renée, et al. Texas Policy & Politics 2022, University of Houston, 14 July 2022, uh.edu/hobby/txpolicyandpolitics/.

Douglas, Erin. “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Signs Law to Bar City Climate Plans from Banning Natural Gas as Fuel Source.” Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 18 May 2021, www.texastribune.org/2021/05/18/texas-natural-gas-bans-climate-plans/.

Miller, Justin. “Texas Democrats Thought 2020 Would Be a Banner Year. Instead, It Was a Catastrophe.” Texas Observer, https://www.texasobserver.org/texas-democrats-2020-catastrophe/. Accessed 17 June 2022.

Visualization 1:

Texas Secretary of State “Election Results (1992–2019)”,

https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_race832.htm

Ballotpedia “Texas House of Representatives elections, 2014”,

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014

Ballotpedia “Texas House of Representatives elections, 2018”,

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

Visualization 2:

Texas Secretary of State “Election Results (1992–2019)”,

https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_race832.htm

Texas Secretary of State “Election Results (2019-current)”,

https://results.texas-election.com/races