Sardour Yemane
Sep 7, 2018 · 6 min read

How Eritreans got the peace deal with Ethiopia wrong

Optimism About Political And Economic Reform In Eritrea Is Waning

Clear thinking and a united opposition front are needed, but they may not be forthcoming


The recent thawing of relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrean has divided Eritrea’s populace opinion into two major camps. First came optimists with an eye in the future, who could see Eritrean government taking various political and economic reforms i.e. measures in implementing the national constitution, curbing the indefinite national service decree, releasing political prisoners etc. Then came government dissent groups and pessimists, stuck in the past, who saw Isayas Afewerki remaining “Eritrea’s last dictator and a threat for the sustainable Economic and Political development of the country.” After the recent peace deal with Ethiopia, since the government lacks transparency in the country affairs, the word of the pessimists have the poignancy of a message on the lost Eritrean public voice.


Like any either/ors, this one turned out be a both/and. President Isayas Afewrki PFDJ party will make some reform under strict arm of the dictatorship, using its improved relationship with neighbouring countries to cow and co-opt Eritrean opposing groups, to bend and break the rules based order and to push Eritrean opposing groups to the periphery of national traitors. Isayas is confident of his strength — since the downfall of TPLF he has touted his party strategy as superior to the disguised and disorganized opposing groups manifesto- and newly willing to show his teeth, deploying Abiy Ahmed as a shield against Eritrean opposing groups in Ethiopia. He will punish opposing groups for their action of working with TPLF. He is engirdling TPLF and TPLF backed Eritrean opposing groups with tripartite agreements with neighbours that come along with trade, bilateral security alliance, port contracts and IGAD membership using the new horn of Africa regional integration initiative.

This has led to the starkest reversal in political situation of the country. Eritrean opposing groups and TPLF backed Eritreans have now come to believe that they were wrong about the prospect of reform in Eritrea. From anti-PFDJ opposing groups to ambivalent Eritreans to government supporters in diaspora community, voices which once argued that the end of no war no peace situation would drive the government towards national peace and reconciliation process have fallen silent. Hopes for reform were dealt a fresh blow when PFDJ political advisor Yemane Gebreab announced recently Eritrea government will establish its own unique governance practice, allowing the ruling political party to run the country without entertaining the views of opposing groups.

Instead debate divides those who think that it was naive to be optimist with Eritrean government on the basis of such optimism and those who believe it was rational to make the attempt. Defenders of government have a point. Eritrea decided to rejoin the world after more than a decade of isolation; thinking that it was better to support the government than seeing the country falls in the hands of TPLF backed puppet government, as many optimist Eritreans did for the last 17 years, made sense. Few were entirely panglossian on the subject. Even in the headiest times supported the government with the hope of reform after the downfall of TPLF. The benefits are real. These optimist diaspora communities were/are allowed to visit their family and country receiving a red carpet treatment from the government with no fear of persecution unlike their pessimist counterparts. And the simple fact that Eritrea’s independence and sovereignty protected under the reign of the ruling party counted for everything with some diasporas.

But the reform skeptics had a point. The diaspora community was too confident that the normalization of relationship with Ethiopia would inevitably result in democratic reform in Eritrea. In hindsight, a lot of clever predictions about Eritrean government look like wishes in disguise.

There is nothing dreamy about the One Nation Eritrea Movement message to Ethiopia’s newly appointed prime minister which is made recently. A general statement opposing the peace deal with Ethiopia government, it says the signed agreement is void since it is made without the consultation of Eritrean public. For many years, it goes on, “Eritreans hope for the the normalization of relationship with Ethiopia was rooted in the belief that peace deal with Ethiopia will drive reform in Eritrea.” This is deemed a mistake “contrary to our hopes, Eritrean totalitarian government is making deals without the participation of the oppressed Eritrean populace.”

In consequence, though the opposing groups has no clear manifesto and means that can convey their message to the local people, it warned Ethiopian government that the agreement is not accepted by Eritrean people and it will have its own negative consequences. More recently, Eritrean opposing groups claim that a renowned former government minister has written a book that exposes the ruling party and the one-man rule status quo of the nation.

Not long ago, such leaked information would have been denounced by ardent supporters of the regime, who would simply downplay the leak as an act of woyane paid traitors of the country. But the silence of the government no longer a reliable stance even for its own supporters. Never before in the 17 years of social media pro-government supporters sounded so gloomy about the dealings of the government.

Many fear that Eritrean government reforms will be implemented after they have ceased to matter. They were especially shaken by the Eritrean government dealings with Arab world and Ethiopia behind closed doors. There are no detailed public announcement about the government foreign relations except murky public announcements. Such arbitrary actions oblige even those patriotic supporters of the government to think hard about what is going on in the country.

Even some supporters have rejoiced the downfall of TPLF, the days when Eritreans would nod through any action of the government are over. Today, faced with no pretext of border war, the mood is grim for both pro and anti-government supporters of regime.

It could get grimmer. Diaspora Eritreans note Isayas Afewrki’s growing financial strength and his increased willingness to cosy up to the west and Arab countries, whether by funding friendly politicians and think tank groups, stirring up Isayas’s image as a champion of peace, buying up diaspora propaganda machines or bullying opposing groups. The “window” for confronting and challenging Isayas regime, they say, is closing.

The optimist camp could count on support from the current Ethiopian ruling political party OPDO and Anti-TPLF majority Ethiopian political activists. The pessimists’ camp are much smaller, disintegrated and are dominated by journalists and human right activists whose image is tarnished in the eyes of Eritrean public.

In the context of Eritrea, the subversive power of social media political activism is insignificant. Since, there are no mobile data service and a reliable as well as an affordable internet connection in the country, the threat of opposing groups in the diaspora community is weak.

Many claim that the ongoing political reform of Abiy’s government in Ethiopia would prove a “colossal Trojan horse” bringing peace and reconciliation to the neighbor in the north. Today many Eritreans see little scope for an Odysseus of Abiy type of reform in Eritrea.

The broad error made by Eritrean opposing groups was to rely on western government and humanitarian organizations power of influence would oust the totalitarian government through sanctions and human right violation reports. However, they have failed to harness forces pushing for change from the local people.

The west was attempting regime change through veiled economic and diplomatic sabotages. Pointing to the flux of refugees, recent Muslim protest and rising cost of living in the country, Isayas regime will not stay for long. But it turned out to be a mirage.

Western leaders are praising the regime for embracing the peace initiative of Dr. Abiy Ahmed. But Eritrean leaders continue to suppress the voice of Eritreans.

Weighting the challenge of rising steadfast dictatorship dispassionately is made harder by simultaneous, and not coincidental, crisis of confidence within the government supporters.

Today Eritrean opposing groups are in a funk and divided state. It is a time for serious thinking about how to balance their movement more effectively, with a united front and without losing sight of the strengths of democratic, accountable government, a free press and independent courts. Instead opposing groups feels frustrated, defeated and enervated.

Many government supporters have spent years rationalizing the threat of aggression by woyane as an obstacle for economic and political reform. But now they are starting to lose hope as a result of lack of transparency by government. That would be strong reason for Isayas supporters to rethink their political inclination.

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