The Death of Phone Numbers

It’s a little existential.

When’s the last time you texted someone?

I’m not talking about a message over the internet (iMessage, FB Messenger, WhatsApp, Snapchat, Instagram, Twitter), but rather the phone-to-phone sms way.

Unless it’s a confirmation code to verify your phone number in signing up for some internet service or a spam message from some unknown number either trying to sell or scam you… admit it, you don’t really text anyone anymore.

You’re not alone.

When’s the last time you called someone?

I’m not talking about a call over the internet (WiFi calling, FaceTime audio, WhatsApp audio, Snapchat), but rather the phone-to-phone call way.

Chances are you dial “the old-fashion way” less and less every year, likely using an internet-based service in its place to call someone.

The only reason you haven’t switched is because either: 1. Your carrier isn’t charging you per minute, 2. Your carrier doesn’t give you the option to exclude it from data plan for a lower monthly bill.

You’re not alone.

Why are texts / calls not dead yet?

Cuz money.

If you live in a country where carriers charge per each text message sent, you probably use WhatsApp. If instead you live in a country where carriers force you to have unlimited text and calls (USA! USA! USA!), you might sometimes still use those services out of sheer convenience.

The truth is, with exception to emergency call services (which carriers already charge us an additional service fee for anyway) you don’t need “unlimited call and text”. You don’t even need call or text, period.

You just need a data plan and emergency services…

But you can’t have that. Why? AT&T doesn’t give you the option. Comcast doesn’t give you the option. Nobody does! Why? Because you’d pick it.

Instead, they duct tape these useless unlimited services to a $50 or $60 per month plan, listing these relics as “✔︎features!” to make you feel like you’re getting more for less.

It’s all a marketing tactic. AT&T might as well mention “✔︎unlimited pocket time! ✔︎unlimited hand holding! ✔︎unlimited physical properties!” as features on your plan. Although these you’ll do more often.

Does it feel like you’re getting ripped off?

The truth is that these call/text services, given how little they are used, aren’t expensive to maintain for carriers like AT&T; it costs almost nothing to provide them to their customers. Therefor, rather than eliminating them and introducing data-only plans for less, it makes them look more “awesome” if they announce: “Our new data plans have all the same benefits, but at half the price!!!” The price is the roughly same regardless, but now you feel like you’re getting a deal.

Since phone lines are no longer needed to communicate, carriers are really reaching when it comes to marketing what is essentially a $90 to $200 /per month subscription that gives you access to their data network (4G at first, 2G if you use too much), no matter which way you slice it; no matter which plan you get.

Eventually, AT&T might decide that their tiny expenses for maintaining call/text features could be better squeezed out in exchange for larger profit margins. It’s at that point when they’ll start to work with device manufacturers on introducing phones that operate like a pure cellular data device (a la iPad, e.g. don’t have full-fledged call/text functionalities).

And then, slowly, our definition of “phone number” will change.

Phone number gets a new definition.

Don’t panic. It was bound to happen.

The Oxford Dictionary defines phone number as “The identifying number assigned to a telephone or group of telephones which is dialed in order to make a connection to it.”

The definition of phone number will soon need an update. Today, we don’t need to dial a phone number in order make a connection between two devices. In fact, the connection is now continuous; it runs from the moment we connect to the internet via 4G (and 3G, LTE, etc) or Wi-Fi. And funny enough, a phone number isn’t necessarily needed to make that connection, but rather, an IP address is used.

iMessage chats happen between IP addresses. So do FaceTime calls. As do WhatsApp calls and texts, Twitter DMs, and more. For the most part, only old-fashioned calls and sms texts are handled by phone numbers, everything else your phone does is handled by an IP address.

The “number” part of your phone is now just an expensive string of digits you rent for online authentication and finding friends on Candy Crush.

For all intents and purposes, your phone number is useless. Or is it?

As we continue shifting our communication away from phone lines and towards internet channels, our sms inbox will only contain verification codes and telephone lines around the world will grow ever silent.

Phone numbers will soon only serve as a cross-platform ID for internet connected user accounts. Phone calls and sms will eventually die. In the future, many phones will remove ability to call and text (with exception to emergency services), functioning as pure data devices.

So what does that leave us with? Well…

Soon enough, a phone number will be known as a unique string of numbers leased by an individual from a carrier for online authentication use and emergency services.

A phone number will be known as a unique string of numbers leased by an individual for online authentication use and emergency services.

That sounds like an awfully big responsibility for what was originally intended as digits that when dialed make a telephone somewhere go “ring ring!” In time, this too will have to change to meet ever increasing security and authentication standards. The phone number we know of today will need to be replaced or redefined.

What will replace phone numbers?

I have no idea.

Maybe we’ll drop numbers in favor of IP addresses, but those are hard to memorize. The replacement should be just as easy as a phone number for humans to remember… or maybe it doesn’t have to be? Maybe we’ll replace numbers with usernames. But then, we might mistake one John Smith for another, or 1 of the 290,000+ people named Zhang Wei (张伟) currently living in China for another.

Either way, one thing is for certain: Phone numbers, how we know them today, arguably one of the most impactful inventions of the 20th century, and one of the greatest communication tools humanity has ever created, will go the way of the VHS, cassette tape, and iPod…

Replaced.