Of course there are many events at play and the possible outcomes are too numerous to count. As for your reading of history, look up Narrative Fallacy in Nasseem Taleb’s book The Black Swan. Historians will connect events every day irrespective of war or famine in the interim. The Brexit-Trump connection is simple and already played to death. If you want to contribute something useful, consider that the current events may be the catalyst to a vastly improved EU. What if Trump and Putin join forces to defeat all manner of Terrorists? What if electric cars make the middle east irrelevant?
Paint a scenario where Brexit-Trump is the last thing we expected to solve world problems — but that’s what happened. That’s real history, unforeseen events that change everything. Black Swans.