QAnon: The Real Problems For Those Who Still Believe

The alt-right theory of an anonymous government insider keeps coming back in spite of a preponderance of evidence that its a hoax

QAnon adherents believe that Trump has instigated and managed a counter-plan to undermine Deep State attackers aligned against him and his administration — a plan that will culminate in the mass arrests and indictment of his enemies. A secret Trump insider — possibly Trump himself — called ‘Q’, disseminates secret information about the counter plan on the internet.

One of the core tenants of QAnon’s claims has been that both Mueller and Jeff Sessions, the former Attorney General, were secretly working with the Trump Administration to bring down Deep State evil. As we documented in our longer research piece previously, this claim as well as Q’s first predictions were way off the mark and to this date have still not developed.

As we have also noted previously, the fact that some of the things that ‘Q’ has ‘predicted’ are coming — or have come — true does not in and of itself validate the genuineness of ‘Q.’ We refer you to the definition of apophenia, addressed in the comprehensive Medium article on Q here. One would have thought that ‘Q’ would have died somewhere between Sessions resignation and the release of the Mueller report, if not sooner. As recent articles show, Q believers still hang on.

Q died a long time ago — but his followers did not get the memo.

The Elephantine Maze That Is ‘Q’ — It Keeps Coming Back Even Bigger

When one views the chart here and the elephantine maze that has become the Q conspiracy, one can understand how it would be easy to lose track, become confused, or fail to keep up with prediction and fulfillment, or to do or have anything else — like a life. We don’t purport to even attempt to understand every detail of the elaborate ‘Q files’ and leave those attempts to those like Praying Medic and others who, one could maintain, have used Q as a stepping stone to You Tube profits. But, by this concession we do not affirm that any of these pundits are correct in their analysis or assessments either.

Though most analyses on Q are from liberal sources, they make fair points — if in a biased, derogatory manner — especially considering the failed predictions and lapses in logic that have dogged the Q trail. Some recent articles provide evidence that Q supporters still believe.

This Daily Beast article here, and this Newsweek article here show how Q believers have ignored past failed predictions and the neutered nature of the released Mueller report and continued to spin it in their own favor. Q supporters grab on to incidents like the one described here to validate their theory and that the President secretly supports Q. Such occurrences are not ‘proof’ of anything, merely apophenia, and Q supporters consistently engage with such incidents in fits of confirmation bias.

QAnon Is Just The Standard Trump Train Now, by Brian Feldman, in New York Magazine, is a mind-boggling, irrational piece of liberal ‘analysis’, yet at the same time provides some useful information on prior and recent ‘Q’ thinking. According to him, Praying Medic is still encouraging believers that that ‘the truth will prevail’. Feldman also, as the title of his article indicates, seeks to conflate Q beliefs with “mainstream right wing consensus and processes already in motion.” This is completely inaccurate since according to various liberal and other sources the total number of ‘Q’ advocates might be somewhere around 1 million or a little more — and Trump votes in 2016 were almost 63 million.

In Avalanche of Indictments Coming, Q Says, a largely positive article on Q, according to Harold Pease, “Q posted in early April that Rod Rosenstein will be gone soon…that “attempts to prevent public release of the truth will continue, that [the Inspector General] will release its findings, and that House intel will launch “more fake investigations in attempt to retain FALSE NARRATIVE.” Of course, none of these predictions are outside the norm that any DC media analyst could make.

It is without question that liberal bias slants most reports on Q. However, liberal media are really the only ones with the motivation to track and criticize Q because it is primarily a right leaning, pro-Trump theory. Most pro-Trump supporters and others on the right could care less.

As we have pointed out elsewhere, the fact that Q advocates, like Praying Medic, are claiming now that the process will play out in a certain fashion — Mueller > Declassified > OIG (Inspector General’s Report) > TRUTH > JUSTICE — does not prove anything. Any analyst with a clear mind can see where the current process is heading and how it might end. That Q or his advocates are predicting it as well means nothing.

Problems With The Q Meme

The most salient objections to Q being a ‘real’ insider or intelligence source follow. First, Q’s initial multiple predictions of mass arrests and social unrest, including martial law were not only erroneous, but failed to materialize in any way, shape or form, both within the time frame predicted and up until today (we address this and the illogical nature of ‘Q’s’ first prediction being so wrong in the research piece linked above).

Second, Jeff Sessions and Robert Mueller are obviously not working with Trump to expose Hillary or the Obama administration, as one of Q’s core assertions states. According to one recent insider report, “Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Podesta, or even John McCain were not targets of the Mueller probe in any way as Q promised.”

A third objection to the genuine nature of ‘Q’ is elaborated on in a One America News article/video by Jack Posobiec and an NBC article: it is probable that others are responsible for the creation and mass distribution of the Q posts. NBC and Posobiec propose two different possibilities for the identity of the fraud, Q.

A fourth and lesser objection to Q being real is where he was ‘born’ — on the 4-chan and 8-chan posting boards. As one former Trump White House insider has opined about both sites: “It is a profound understatement to claim that anything positive or good comes from these boards. Yet, it is precisely from sites like these that the “Pizzagate” and now the QAnon conspiracy theories emanate.”

In our comprehensive and objective analysis on ‘Q’ on Medium on 8/23/18 we concluded that “to believe that ‘Q’ is legitimate involves major leaps of faith over multiple inconsistencies in data.” The article/video by Posobiec, one of the initial propagators of the de-bunked Pizzagate conspiracy who eventually recanted his part in that phenomenon raises serious questions and may expose ‘Q’. Posobiec now works for One America News, a pro-Trump news network. Regardless of whether he is correct the Q meme has other problems.

The Real Problem For Q

As we documented and explained in our August 2018 longer article,

“The real problem for Q and his adherents appears to be that right off the bat he was wrong. From October 28 until November 1, 2017 in early, multiple posts Q predicts the arrest of John Podesta, Huma Abedin, and Hillary Clinton in the midst of national riots, martial law, and communication nationally only through the Emergency Broadcast System (even though, according to Vox “the Emergency Broadcast System went out of service in 1997, replaced by the Emergency Alert System.” Whoops again! You would think a ‘high up government insider’ would know that).
It was all supposed to happen over the next few days. None of this has yet to occur. Yet somehow Q devotees, mesmerized by Q’s (supposed) credentials and Socratic style, are willing to overlook such stunningly off-base, extreme — and foundational — predictions and focus on supposed fulfillment’s related to Q provided information and Trump tweets. Why?
Q almost immediately explained his incorrect forecast as ‘misinformation’ and states early in his posts that misinformation is necessary. According to an online summary of his initial posts, Q also can not be explicit and must ask questions because it will help him avoid the enemy “sniffer programs” that constantly evaluate intelligence data. Q gives all the true believers his secrets but occasionally he throws out something that does not come true to ‘mislead’ his opponents.
However, if ‘Q’ was engaging in ‘misinformation’ with his first post — before he was known and before he had any authority with anyone in the internet community, much less the world — what was the point? This was well before he gained a following and before anyone — except Diaz/Rodgers [influencers who spread the word of ‘Q’ on 4chan/8chan, then You Tube], who appear to have questionable motives — thought him to be anyone of importance.”


The ‘proof’ above is unlikely to convince the most ardent ‘Q’ disciples. Nor are the multiple missed predictions, including one about multiple arrests taking place on November 18, 2018 that also never occurred.

Q advocates even lashed out at former Trump White House advisor Sebastian Gorka’s recent polemic against Q, “The Truth About Q Anon,” which also includes a partial list of missed predictions.

A former major Fox News host said to me that he does not spend any time researching Q’s claims because they are impossible to verify. This is one of the many problems with the Q meme. Remember Deep Throat? (Google it if you don’t understand the reference). Even though in the days of Watergate, before the internet, it is instructive for today: legitimate news sources don’t go completely anonymous. They get their information — if it has real credibility — to legitimate news distributors who report on it. This is the way they marshal forces and spread the truth.

If Q was really legitimate then trusted news sources on the right like Rush, Hannity, John Solomon or Sarah Carter and others would be reporting Q’s information, either from Q or from some other consistent anonymous source. This has not happened.

Ultimately though, one has to admit — no one knows (for sure) the identity of ‘Q.’ That still remains true, as does the inherent likelihood that a real government insider feeding secret information to the masses and calling himself ‘Q’ does not exist.

All of the above, plus the preponderance of evidence presented in our comprehensive Medium article, certainly rises — at least — to the level of ‘reasonable doubt’ about Q as genuine, and means that more likely than not ‘Q’ is a prank or a fraud.

In addition to Gorka, other Conservatives and Independents like Former Trump Press Secretary Sean Spicer, Michael Flynn, Jr., and Scott Adams have all denounced Q. Gorka, a true Trump insider, states emphatically, “No member of the Trump [administration] has anything to do with these insane theories.“

Like we said, Q died a long time ago — but his followers haven’t gotten the memo.

Seaborn Hall has a degree in management from Georgia Tech, two masters degrees in theology and has studied at the doctoral level. His consumer articles have appeared on Advisor Perspectives, The Federalist, Real Clear Markets, Zero Hedge, and other websites. Formerly he was a regional director at a national top-50 RIA; he currently manages a family investment company, writes, and publishes Common Sense Interpretation.