Seven Reasons Hillary Clinton Will Be The Democratic Presidential Nominee
Early on March 13, 2020, following the Presidential primaries of Tuesday, March 10, Joe Biden had 878 delegates out of 1991 needed and is in the position of presumptive Democratic nominee for President. However, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.
Here are seven reasons why.
One: Joe Biden does not excite the base plus Bernie offends equals low voter turnout
At 77, 78 when he would take office, and Obama’s second for eight years, Biden has never excited the base. He has little charisma and little going for him except his reputation as a likable guy who moves to the middle.
Labeled as a ‘socialist,’ whether ‘Democratic socialist’ or more true communist, Sanders will have problems mobilizing the middle class or Wall Street. Can anyone envision a Sanders Presidency after the Coronavirus scare? Porous borders and a nation saturated with the sick and dying.
Both of these facts translate to low Democratic turnout. In fact, during primaries Democratic turnout in some states has been way below Republican turnout and far below historical averages.
Two: Hillary has been campaigning. Obama Still Hasn’t Endorsed.
Hillary has never accepted responsibility for defeat in 2016. She completed a book tour in December 2017. She continues to accept interview and high profile public platforms. She has never said she won’t accept the nomination or run for President.
Obama refused to endorse Biden at the beginning of the primary season and has still remained silent. Reportedly, he will only endorse the ‘winner.’ Translation? He may help from behind the scenes to make sure the right person wins (see #7 below).
Three: Joe Biden has problems
Between the Biden family corruption and Joe’s inability to remember which state he’s in or put a complete sentence together, it will soon be evident to most Americans that Biden will essentially be a ‘Puppet-President.’ It will be the power brokers behind him who pull the strings.
Even a Democratic strategist said recently on the record that Joe Biden is ‘mentally deteriorating.’ According to him, “He is a candidate that is mentally deteriorating. People in the Democratic establishment say, ‘Oh don’t say that.’ They really believe that they can shield Joe Biden from public scrutiny and the reality is, they can’t.”
Why are the Democratic powers that be supporting him, then? Democrats are not really paying attention yet. They remember the Biden from the Obama years and fail to realize how much he has changed. They are focused on denying Bernie Sanders the nomination.
Biden’s mental acuity and his manner with people has significantly deteriorated in the last few years, a fact obvious to Republicans and politically aware Independents and Democrats — or anyone who watches the ex-MSM news. Once Biden is on the platform alone and Democrats have a chance to see him clearly they will be horrified out of denial. Then they will be looking around frantically for a solution. The insiders will provide it.
Four: Hillary needs this.
John Durham of the DOJ is said to be preparing reports that could result in indictments of various people around Hillary as early as June 2020, one month before the Democratic convention. If not President, Hillary may face prison — or at least further embarrassment — in the first two years of Trump’s second term over her reported destruction of emails showing that she incorrectly handled classified information while Obama’s Secretary of State.
This possibility will put the Clinton and Obama legacies in serious question. As President, Hillary would have the power to put persons in place who would repress any past illicit activities, protecting her, her husband’s, and Obama’s legacy.
Will she, Bill Clinton, and Obama be willing to leave the ability to squelch information of an investigation to the unlikely Presidency of Joe Biden? Doubtful.
Five: Joe Biden Can’t Win
One recent article showed that no Senate member who has stayed in the Senate longer than 14 years has ever been elected President. Biden was in the Senate for 36 years.
It also turns out that Vice Presidents are rarely elected President — it has not happened since 1988. Before that, not since 1836 — either from office or from private life.
The DNC Standing Committee is packed with Clinton supporters. Once Democratic brokers realize that historically Biden can’t win and that mentally, he is not fit to win, the back room deals will begin.
Once the wealthy behind Biden realize that his blunders are too serious for prime time and the Presidency they will have to shift their support elsewhere. Some behind-the-scenes ‘deal’ will be made in which Biden is assured that Hunter will be ignored and that the Bidens will have access to the halls of power.
Some type of convention ‘deadlock’ or ‘excuse’ for Biden will be orchestrated and Hillary will emerge as the compromise candidate.
Six: Bernie won’t cave until the very end.
He proved in 2016 that he knows how to keep things going right up until the end.
Bernie’s campaign raised $46.5 million in February alone. Bernie still beats Biden in the race for Hollywood cash. He had over $16 million cash on hand at the start of the month so, with the additional cash he has raised, should be in good shape to continue his fight.
Additionally, Elizabeth Warren still has 71 delegates that she can throw someone’s way. Between Bernie and Warren they will have almost 800 delegates with which to negotiate. This is more than the super-delegates, and in fact, balances off the power of the super-delegates.
Sure, Bernie and Warren don’t like each other but they have similar values and platforms. Bernie and Warren’s base, like Trump’s, is passionate. They never want to give up. The candidates have to respect that.
Will they be able to resist the temptation to play the spoiler and control the final Democratic platform and who gets the nomination? Not if they aren’t stupid.
There are a total of 4750 Democratic delegates. 771 of the total are super-delegates. 1991 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. 2382 are needed for subsequent ballots.
Approximately 604 super-delegates supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 nomination.
Super delegates are not pledged to vote for their state’s vote results and are not pledged to any particular candidate. They are leaders of the party from the past, people like Barney Frank and John Podesta, former Clinton advocates, and Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. In fact, since the Clintons, then the Obamas, controlled the majority of the party for the last 16 years most super-delegates are likely to be controlled by whoever the Clintons and the Obamas want to push forward as the nominee.
Biden currently has 878 delegates to Sander’s 725. But Bloomberg (61), Buttigieg (26), and Klobuchar (7) have thrown their support to Biden. This means Biden currently needs 1019 to clinch the nomination. With 2115 delegates left following Tuesday March 10, Biden needs only 46% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.
True, Biden may appear to be well on his way to winning the nomination before the convention. However, even if he appears to have accomplished this, donor-candidates like Bloomberg and Sanders-Warren will be convinced behind the scenes that throwing their delegates to Clinton with the super-delegates is in the party’s best interest.
Without this result, expect that 2020 will be a more muted replay of the 1972 McGovern-Nixon contest or the 1984 Reagan-Mondale race. Trump won’t win every state — but it will be a landslide. This assuming the Coronavirus scare-panic is past.
Common sense dictates there are only two viable candidates who could come forward at the last minute and take the helm of the Democratic party, generating enough respect and popular support to unite the party, win the nomination, and then the Presidency. Those candidates are Hillary, and Michelle Obama.
Since Michelle has previously said that she does not want it and she and Obama have a lucrative, multi-year deal with Hollywood and Netflix, Hillary is the obvious choice.
Knowing Biden’s performance over the last twelve months in public appearances, will the Clintons and Obamas get firmly behind him as the nominee? It seems highly unlikely. It is more likely that an alternate will be brought forth.
Hillary has always claimed that she beat Trump — she won the popular vote. She has never acknowledged responsibility for defeat. She has never said that she wouldn’t accept the nomination. She needs the job to avoid scandal and lasting damage to the Clinton legacy. She would reignite, protect and ensure the Obama legacy.
Regardless of how it appears at present, Hillary Clinton as the eventual Democratic Presidential nominee just makes sense.
Seaborn Hall has a degree in management from Georgia Tech, a Masters in theology and has studied at the doctoral level. His consumer articles have appeared in Advisor Perspectives, The Federalist, Real Clear Markets, Zero Hedge, and other websites. Formerly he was a regional director at a national top-50 RIA; he currently manages a family investment company, writes, and publishes Common Sense Interpretation.