When You’ve Lost the Changing Room

I’m not going to pretend I was ever a supporter of Jeremy Corbyn. This was more to do with the man than his politics (to an extent) as he wasn’t news to me, and neither were his views. Also I have no doubt he’d win a new leadership election if he’s on the ballot paper. But anyway…

When Tony Mobray was Middlesbrough manager I desperately wanted him to succeed. He was the captain of the team I grew up with, the team that fought off the liquidators, that went back to the top flight (and back down, and back up, and back down, and so on) After some topsy-turvy seasons, Mogga found himself in charge as manager. Saved the team from relegation down to the third tier of English football and for a minute all looked like he would lead them back to the Premier League. It couldn’t be more fitting. But after a few duff results, some poor showings, eventually it became clear he wasn’t the man to take the team over the final hurdle. He’d won back the fans, increased the numbers through the gates. The team felt like a local team again — with a new core of local players. However, the results began to suffer and soon the numbers through the gates began to drop. Throughout the decline, even those calling for his resignation did so hoping that he could, maybe, still turn it around.

So yes, I do understand how Jeremy Corbyn makes some people feel.

But as I say, I have never been a fan. He represents a hard-left politics that I’ve never liked. A side of the Labour party that is misogynist because women aren’t the most oppressed people in the world anymore. The bit that is thinks it’s anti-Zionist but is actually antisemitic. On the back of the referendum there has been a spate of racist attacks. The referendum didn’t make people racist, but it allowed them to think that their views were now acceptable. The same with the sexism and antisemitism of the left under Corbyn — I don’t think he is sexist or antisemitic, and I don’t think he encourages it, but his election has shone a light onto that corner of the left that is. Some, such as the folk over at http://hurryupharry.org/ have been lifting the lid on this since long before Corbyn appeared on the Labour leadership scene. But since Corbyn’s election, that side of the party has also becomes more vocal, as some have been documenting.

None of this is Corbyn’s fault, but it is happening under his stewardship of the party because of the side of the party he historically represents.

Obviously this is just a mainstream media smear (that the two words mainstream media have a three letter acronym of MSM is a genuine matter of annoyance for me by the way) But all of the supposed smears thrown at him are all grounded in fact.

While it may be easy for someone who supports Corybn to gloss over all of these things, the IRA, the money from Iran, the referendum, the gaffes and gaffes and gaffes are all read by the public. Those things all matter more than if he supported the Iraq war or not to most of the electorate.

Also, the MSM (sic) hasn’t even got started on him yet. It’s not a conspiracy — sections of the press are openly, gleefully attacking him and will use any excuse to do so. His past and the associations he’s made in the past make it frankly easy. In a race of Corbyn vs May (if she wins) the press will trawl, distort and fabricate any number of things. Twitter accounts may fact check, correct and otherwise rage, but most people won’t know. The front page of whatever tabloid will be as far as the majority will read on a topic. By the time the doorstep is reached by any campaigner it’ll be too late. He’ll be destroyed, and the Labour Party with him.

And that is the problem I had with Jeremy Corbyn from the start. That he’s not interested in mainstream politics. He is interested in his causes.

Standing up and apologising for the Iraq war meant more to him than campaigning to stay in Europe (or at least that’s how it seemed — I doubt he’d have booked a holiday for the release of the Chilcott Report anyway) This doesn’t make him a bad person. It doesn’t make him a bad MP. It does make him a bad leader of a party though.

I don’t doubt that Jeremy has reignited part of the party. Momentum for all their (many, many) faults have created a movement of people behind a leader. People on social media genuinely declare their love for him, a situation that I find weird about any political leader quite frankly, but there you go. But also, I honestly can’t see a point where he can move the Labour party from it’s current position in the polls.

Any sensible analysis of the available data, such as those polls, shows Labour are on track to lose anywhere between 50–150 seats at the next election under Jeremy Corbyn. It’s easy to say butwhataboutoldham or to willfully misinterpret the results of the recent local elections, but cherry picking numbers means not looking at trends, and all trends are pointing to election disaster for Labour.

In my view, the main threat to the Labour party is not the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. It is Ukip. Most Labour MPs sit in seats that voted Leave. Any of them with a slender majority are at risk from a concerted effort by Ukip to turn those Leave votes into Ukip votes. Looking north of the border, that’s not that hard. The difference is that the SNP, while Nationalist, are not on the borders of the far right that Ukip occupy. I can’t see a situation where a terrorist support republican (© all tabloids, ever) will win those voters over. That this situation has arisen is not the fault of Corbyn — it’s been decades in the making.

This doesn’t mean I disagree with Jeremy Corbyn’s politics entirely. He was right to make the case that it is successive governments, not immigration, to blame for shortages in schools, hospitals and so on. But he failed to convince a third of Labour voters — more of whom (by number) voted Leave than Ukip voters. It’s not his fault that the referendum was lost — that’s the responsibility of Cameron et al — but as a leader of a party that was pushing to Remain he must take some accountability for it.

If I thought that Jeremy Corbyn was the person to crush the nascent Ukip stirrings in the north, I’d back him. If I thought he could take on Theresa May at the despatch box, I’d look at him with fresh eyes. But all I can see is someone who will be pilloried, rightly or wrongly, and with that take the Labour party down with him. At this moment, the working people of the United Kingdom need a parliamentary Labour party united behind a leader that can ensure that any Brexit is negotiated with them in mind. A cloth-capped revolutionary, caught behind a waving Stalin flag isn’t that person.

It’s easy to argue that the parliamentary Labour party have tried to dethrone him for naked self interest. But if that naked self interest is keeping their position as elected MPs then it also contradicts the idea that Jeremy is electable — if they were worried only about their jobs, then surely the’d keep the person at the top who was guaranteeing them success? It may just be that the entire parliamentary party who have resigned may have the countries best interests at heart and that’s why they no longer back their leader.

For Jeremy Corbyn’s politics to succeed, someone else needs to be the face of them. I’m not sure who that person is, but I’m sure who it isn’t.

The day Tony Mobray was sacked by Middlesbrough, the reaction read read like a thousand men and women had all been dumped by the same person. They all loved that man, and couldn’t bear to let him go. Some would find it weird that a football manager could inspire that much love in random strangers, but there you go. The same thousands got behind their new manager and roared their team back into the Premiership two years later.