Who Will They Play?

Making Sense of the Crazy Tie-Breakers in Group B

An excerpt from the following story:

Bracket One
USA vs. B4
B2 vs. France

Bracket Two
B1 vs. Serbia
Australia vs. B3

But it isn’t simple at all, first off I am not totally sure what the tie breakers are. I have heard it referenced that it is point differential in the games which the tied teams participated in. But I cannot find this documented anywhere and others have expressed a similar distress. Not only that but by my calculations, Spain and Croatia both have chances to either place first or be eliminated. Spain’s chances for both are much more real.

Lithuania: Already qualified, can realistically place first, third or fourth.
Argentina: Already qualified, can realistically place first, second or third.
Spain: Yet to qualify, can realistically place first, second or fifth.
Croatia: Yet to qualify, can realistically place second, third, fourth or fifth.
Brazil: Yet to qualify, can realistically place fourth, fifth or sixth.
Nigeria: Yet to qualify, can realistically place fourth, fifth or sixth.

See all outcomes below…

By Seeding

B1 (Could be Lithuania, Argentina, or Spain) Plays Serbia
Lithuania: If they win.
Argentina: If Lithuania loses and they win.
Spain: If both Lithuania and Argentina lose. Unless, Croatia overcomes their current 38 point lead in point differential.
Prediction: Lithuania

B2 (Argentina, Spain, or Croatia) Plays France
Argentina: If Lithuania and Argentina win.
Spain: If Lithuania wins and Argentina loses.
Croatia: If Argentina wins and Lithuania loses. Or if Lithuania and Argentina lose, all top four teams will be tied at 3–2 and Croatia would get second despite beating all of the tied teams because of Spain’s 50-point beatdown of Lithuania unless Croatia has a similar performance.
Prediction: Spain

B3 (Croatia, Spain, Lithuania, or Argentina) Plays Australia
Croatia: If Lithuania, Argentina and Brazil win.
Spain: If Lithuania and Argentina win but Brazil loses.
Lithuania: If Argentina and Brazil win but Lithuania loses.
Argentina: If Lithuania and Brazil win but Argentina loses or if both Lithuania and Argentina lose.
Prediction: Argentina

B4 (Croatia, Nigeria, Lithuania, or Brazil) Plays USA
Croatia: If Lithuania and Brazil win but Argentina loses.
Nigeria: If Lithuania and Argentina win but Brazil loses.
Lithuania: If both Lithuania and Argentina lose.
Brazil: If Lithuania, Argentina and Brazil win or if Argentina and Brazil win but Lithuania loses.
Prediction: Croatia

B5 (Croatia, Nigeria, Brazil or Spain) ELIMINATED
Croatia: If Lithuania and Argentina win but Brazil loses.
Nigeria: If Lithuania, Argentina and Brazil lose.
Brazil: If Lithuania and Brazil win but Argentina loses or if Lithuania and Argentina lose and Brazil wins.
Spain: If Lithuania, Argentina, and Brazil win or if Argentina and Brazil win but Lithuania loses.
Prediction: Brazil

B6 (Brazil or Nigeria) ELIMINATED
Brazil: If they lose to Nigeria.
Nigeria: If they lose to Brazil.
Prediction: Nigeria

By Game Result

If Lithuania, Argentina, and Brazil Win:
B1- Lithuania 4–1(beat Argentina)
B2- Argentina 4–1 (lost to Lithuania)
B3- Croatia 2–3 (beat both Spain and Brazil, point differential of +6)
B4- Brazil 2–3 (beat Spain lost to Croatia, point differential of -3)
B5- Spain 2–3 (lost to both Croatia and Brazil, pt. diff. of -3) ELIMINATED
B6- Nigeria 1–4 ELIMINATED
(I am guessing that head to head comes after tied point differentials, but I have no idea.)

If Lithuania and Argentina Win and Brazil Loses: 
B1- Lithuania 4–1(beat Argentina)
B2- Argentina 4–1 (lost to Lithuania)
B3- Spain 2–3 (point differential of +7)
B4- Nigeria 2–3 (point differential of +5)
B5- Croatia 2–3 (point differential of -12) ELIMINATED
B6- Brazil 1–4 ELIMINATED

If Lithuania and Brazil Win and Argentina Loses:
B1- Lithuania 4–1
B2- Spain 3–2 (would have beaten Argentina)
B3- Argentina 3–2 (would have lost to Spain)
B4- Croatia 2–3 (beat Brazil)
B5- Brazil 2–3 (lost to Croatia) ELIMINATED
B6- Nigeria 1–4 ELIMINATED

If Argentina and Brazil Win and Lithuania Loses:
B1- Argentina 4–1
B2- Croatia 3–2 (would have beaten Lithuania)
B3- Lithuania 3–2 (would have lost to Croatia)
B4- Brazil 2–3 (beat Spain)
B5- Spain 2–3 (lost to Brazil) ELIMINATED
B6- Nigeria 1–4 ELIMINATED

If Lithuania and Argentina Lose: (Brazil’s Outcome is Irrelevant)
B1- Spain 3–2 (current point differential: +48)
B2- Croatia 3–2 (current point differential: +10)
B3- Argentina 3–2 (current point differential: -16)
B4- Lithuania 3–2 (current point differential: -42)
B5- Brazil 2–3 ELIMINATED
B6- Nigeria 1–4 ELIMINATED

My Predictions Are:

Bracket One
USA vs. Croatia
Spain vs. France

Bracket Two
Lithuania vs. Serbia
Australia vs. Argentina

Hope that made some sense of it. Let me know your predictions or if you have a better grasp of what the tie-breakers are.