I like your premise, just something to consider. Rasmussen skews heavily Repbulican. His real core of support is still in the mid-30’s. That’s still a lot of people, and they do live in a content/reality bubble.
What scares me is that these people are armed and not necessarily “tightly tied down”.
As far as Rasmussen goes, you are a smart guy (no snark intended), check the composite polling. To me, it’s a much better gauge.
Having said all of that, once Trumpcare is announced and we understand the winners and losers there, these numbers will change. Once he gets us into a trade war with Mexico, China or both these numbers will change as well.