5G Unplugged
The advent of the mobile internet has massively accelerated the information revolution brewing since the start of the 20th century; the impact on civilization is staggering. We naturally expect new capabilities and efficiencies in mobile systems; however, it may be that 5G, as currently defined, is not addressing key challenges arising from this historical discontinuity.
5G, the fifth generation of mobile cellular systems, is expected to change the world starting in 2019. The most optimistic predictions suggest that 5G will trigger unprecedented growth in the economy and for the companies supplying and operating these systems. Emboldened by these projections, most suppliers, operators, and many other stakeholders all the way to G20 governments are rushing to claim 5G leadership. Like a herd of wildebeests crossing the Mara river, they have a hunch that they’ll find much needed green grass on the other side; but none of them know exactly where nor when; nor can they articulate why the herd is crossing the river at this particular location nor at this particular time.
I should be ecstatic about this global kumbaya; after all, as the general manager for cellular products at a leading mobile technology provider through mid 2018, I have had a hand in the race towards a globally unified 5G solution. I should be relieved that the industry could avoid the fragmentation it risked if semi proprietary initiatives by Verizon in the US and KT in Korea had not been answered. All good. However, I feel somehwat troubled and embarrassed by what is now happening with 5G; the compounded effects of causal fallacies and cognitive biases.
Beyond smartphone, the expansion of cellular connectivity to an increasing number of objects is undeniable. This is happening at a faster pace than ever, driven by the maturity of 4G/LTE solutions and similar progresses in low power compute and data analytics. Tens of millions of things and vehicles are newly connected with LTE every year. As a result of this growing installed base, with decade long service expectations, LTE will be around for years to come; it has earned its stripes as “Long Term Employment”.
However, industries are still very much at the infant stage of connecting more things; they have had a relatively short observation window into the limitations of existing mobile systems and, in turn, critical requirements to be addressed by a newer generation. There is a possibility that 5G-NR (the technology associated with 5G) eventually misses the mark; hopefully, NR does not end up being a code for “Never Relevant” instead of the “New Revolution” it is vocally projected to be.
The alphabet soup and the complexity of what has happened in past decades can be confusing. The basic principles of radio transmission were established in the 19th century; the foundations of computer science and information theory were laid out by the middle of the 20th century; it however took the advent of the transistor and the semiconductor industry for these ideas to become practical and scalable over the past 50 years. The passionate contribution of many scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs eventually converged to the global information exchange platform and devices we all depend on today. After a long journey, a tipping point was reached around 2010, when internet services met global broadband mobility in a personal device, the smartphone, loaded with a modern operating system and an intuitive user interface; the rest is history.
The aggregation and compounded effect of this entire body of work (not of a single specific breakthrough, industry visionary or company) resulted in the largest and most impactful system ever created by civilization. So impactful, that we stand at the inception of a very unique revolution. The passage from ten millenniums of information exchange via physical access to a medium on which data had to be copied, to an era of ubiquitous, instantaneous, frictionless flow of all information at once. This is profound, irreversible and de-stabilizing. The perceived scale of space and time is collapsing more rapidly than the pace at which society and industries can adapt; this space-time warp is a massive source of system and social stress. Some seemingly negative, such as fake news and data abuses; some more promising, such as the premises of a new dynamic in the political landscape.
In this context, it may be that the high value opportunity in evolving the mobile platform is not a faster wireless link. It may be, that the next wave of innovation should be steered to address a different set of frictions and risks.
It may be, that running the world over a fragile, centralized mobile infrastructure supplied by essentially two vendors (one fragile to the diktat of China’s regime, the other fragile to calcification), exposes society and the global economy to black swan scenarios.
It may be, that re-defining the way we share and trust data and its provenance is a critical pre-condition before we lay all of our data eggs in a common global basket powered by “5G” and hope for the best; ignoring the non zero possibility that it all goes very wrong.
On the opportunity side, it may be, that instead of chasing questionable “first to 5G” trophies, governments and their economies would be better served by stimulating an aggressive extension of basic mobile broadband coverage and reliability; and by devising modern regulation that encourages entrepreneurship and innovation in data services and protects against dystopian outcomes.
Surely, continued expansion in data exchange and services will demand more capable and more efficient wireless technologies over time; however, it may be that the 5G-NR bandwagon put the carriage in front of the horses; it may be that 5G is still looking for a North Star to orient itself.
The information revolution is transforming and challenging civilization with high intensity. There is more to come; much more. Rushing to upgrade a particular element of the system with grandiose top-down expectations may be of limited value to the whole; time will tell. More pressing however, is the quest towards antifragility (ability to gain strength from stressors) in anticipation of more chaos and massive opportunities from the information revolution we have ignited. The ultimate test will be what we make out of it and what we let it make out of us.
As for 5G, like for music, getting to the essence often calls for an unplugged interpretation. Free from artifice, amplification and distortion.
5G Terminology Unplugged
5G (Fifth Generation of mobile systems)
Occasionally gets confused with WiFi in the 5 GHz band. Otherwise, an “all you can fit” label that could refer to a broad vision resulting from everything being connected wirelessly, to 5G-NR (see below), or even (as proposed by the mobile industry) to an advanced version of 4G/LTE …
To the chagrin of many, AT&T, a US operator, might be formally correct in flashing the 5G logo when operating an advanced LTE radio channel. This is pointing a laser beam at the fog surrounding the meaning of 5G and what 5G-NR will uniquely do for us in its initial form.
5G-NR (5G New Radio)
5G New Radio is the latest mobile system designed by the industry. A 5G-NR radio can be operated standalone (SA) or, in a simplified non standalone (NSA) form, as an augmentation of the LTE radio.
In NSA mode, the bulk of the system control and operation occurs through a LTE channel which typically enjoys good coverage and reliability; the 5G-NR channel is used as a booster whenever available. This helps operators improve capacity in crowded hot spots without the need to deploy 5G-NR across large areas; very useful, but not exactly a “quantum leap”. Most trials and early commercial deployments in 2019 will be relying on the NSA mode. Can you sense more 5G “logo” arguments coming?
This leads to T-Mobile’s commitment to nationwide 5G-NR in the US, using 600 MHz, a frequency with excellent coverage; Batman’s un-carrier crew may indeed be first to approach such milestone. Here’s the unplugged catch though: given the limited bandwidth available at 600 MHz, receiving a service over 5G-NR on this frequency is unlikely to make much difference as compared to LTE on the same frequency; other than for, you guessed it, the particular 5G logo on the screen.
5G Claims Unplugged
5G will change everything
Questionable causality. Build it and they will come; well… they are already here! Thankfully, industries have not been waiting for 5G to innovate on data services and benefit from mobility and personalization.
Further growth and innovation in data services will surely gain from more efficient and more capable mobile systems. The exact timeline, specific requirements and pay-offs are yet to be calibrated and demonstrated with hard data (active footprint, units and profit).
5G will unlock the IOT opportunity
This is an entire story on its own. Reality check: despite the maturity and benefits of LTE-IOT, some regions (e.g. EU) have yet to reach peak 2G/GPRS shipments for IOT applications. Besides the time it will take for 5G-NR to mature, achieve ubiquitous coverage and enable sub 5$ IOT modules, there is a secret buried in the hay stack. The first version of 5G-NR does not natively include IOT optimized capability; it merely points to the 2018 version of LTE-IOT (eMTC & NB-IOT); it ensures that both are “spectrum compatible”; that is, a 5G-NR channel can be wrapped around an already deployed LTE-IOT channel without disrupting legacy devices. Enough for some to call it 5G-IOT…
4G deployment led to GDP growth — Rush to 5G!
Correlation is not causation. “GDP growth led to LTE deployment” may be what this really was. Or not — neither causality could be verified with 3G/UMTS in early 2000s. With this cleared, good infrastructure does matter and mobile broadband coverage is one of multiple components in the “good” infrastructure equation.
We have already shipped/installed n 5G-NR units
Most likely to be understood, at least through 2019, as: “5G-NR ready” equipment with multiple software updates required to reach commercial grade 5G-NR operation and compatibility. Maturing and hardening complex systems, such as 5G-NR, with many deployment configurations across a multi-vendor eco-system takes time. Rushing it might cripple the system and prevent later addition of key new features.
5G skeptics will be proven wrong
If critical judgement implies denial of evolution: absolutely! Mobile technology and infrastructure will continue to evolve and sustain continued growth in data services. In the meantime, if the 5G goalpost gets moved to align with the marketing narrative and timeline instead of a broad base 5G-NR system transition, “5G” will safely achieve global scale by 2020… on the back of Gigabit LTE and LTE-IOT product diversity and maturity.
