Warframe’s Old Blood May Not Help Current Funk

Seth Underwood
Nov 3 · 7 min read
Photo by Sean Mungur on Unsplash

Warframe is slipping into a funk. I know this has been claimed again and again about the game over the last six to seven years. Upticks in numbers beat back most critics. Or a group of “white knights” spawn who defend the game’s integrity as being the best thing since sliced bread. Now, I’m not saying Warframe is about to kick the bucket, but there’s something happening in the game’s playership. Something that will impact its future development financially as a Free-to-Play game.

I’m not the only one. YouTube Gamer, Mogamu, mentioned this in his recent video entitled “Warframe Is Kinda Broken”. While YouTube Gamer, Gaz TTV, was so upset with the Old Blood, and the fact Warframe is outright selling items you normally would grind for, he posted the video entitled “Channel Hiatus Announcement”. All this coming after over the summer months many YouTube Gamers who serviced Warframe got up and quit. All because of trends they were noticing with YouTube and Warframe. I had posted a Medium story suggesting Gen Z may be killing those YouTube views for Warframe.

But I hate to say it, there’s a clear downward funk happening in the Warframe Steam statistics after a peak happening around mid-2018. And I’m not sure the Old Blood will pull it out. Heck, I don’t even think the pending Empyrean or The Duviri Paradox will reverse this trend. Both could revive things and pull Warframe out of the funk, or the funk could be the sign of something else happening in the gaming space outside of gamemaster Steve’s control.

The Statistic Review

First let’s be clear, when you look at Steam stats don’t think averages or peaks. These are what marketing people want you to look at. You need to look at where the numbers bottom out. Think of these trends like stock numbers, what matters is not how high the stock will go but where’s it going to crash. That’s because as an investor you want to sell before that stock tanks on you.

Now games are not stocks, but Steam player stats can show trends in gaming. And what I’m seeing is a movement away from certain games like Warframe and more into other games. And there are a few that are stable.

Let’s start with the Steam Top Played games as of 11–3–2019 2:30 PM EST.

1. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive

2. Dota 2

3. PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS

4. Destiny 2

5. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six® Siege

6. Grand Theft Auto V

7. Team Fortress 2

8. Warframe

9. Rust

10. Rocket League®

Now only two of these, PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS and Destiny 2, have not been around since January 1st of 2017. So, in my trend analysis I will not include them as its to early to determine anything for them.

Starting with the top rank and going down, I notice that Counter-Strike: Global Offensive is stable despite a dip in mid-2018. Dota 2 is on a downward trend despite a spike in early 2019. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six® Siege showed growth from 2017 numbers and then has leveled out from there. Grand Theft Auto V is showing minor growth but is still relatively flat. Team Fortress 2 is showing a downward trend but is still relatively flat. Rust is showing an upward trend. Rocket League® is showing a flat trend. And I’ve already mentioned Warframe.

What does this all mean?

Games like Dota 2, Warframe and to a lesser extend Team Fortress 2 are showing players are drifting away. Where are they going? Well, I would say games like Grand Theft Auto V and Rust. Whereas games like Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six® Siege and Grand Theft Auto V are showing staying power with players time and time again.

Now obviously new games, and I use this term loosely, like PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS and Destiny 2, will suck up players from older franchises for a time. Some of Dota 2, Warframe and Team Fortress 2 players could end up there. Then there is a host of smaller titles below the top ten that from time to time bubble up like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Individually, Warframe’s chart shows that a segment of players is pulling away from the game right now. I suspect that segment might be the players who not only like a challenge but also want skill in the game. These are players that don’t care too much for a series of RNG grinds. They want enemies that react and think. Not ones that get stuck in the corner looking like they’re taking a whiz. They want a series of skilled events that build on each other and require you to assemble a weapon to kill that boss.

Sure, there’s a big puzzle bit with the Old Blood, but it’s a hell of an RNG grind from what I’ve seen so far. That’s all what the Old Blood is just layers of RNG grinds, unless you just pony up with the plat to help buy out Mr. Yuk (not that this is what’s going on per se).

Lack of Good Data

The problem is there’s a real lack of information out there on the number of games in a quarter or any period played by gamers individually. Just statistics on how many hours they play, what kind of genre they like or a combination of the two. Or the fact globally 53.2% are not sleeping and 23.1% aren’t even bathing. I will not get into the 12.3% calling out from work to play a video game.

In theory Steam could easily generate this information and may do so for those marketing groups willing to pay, but this information is not readily available to the public. It can only be loosely, and I mean loosely, inferred as I’ve done above.

Sourced from Limelight Network’s The State of Online Gaming — 2019

Based on Limelight’s figure 19, we could infer that maybe declines in games like DOTA 2 might be associated with age. Games like DOTA 2 are not as popular with 18 to 25-year-olds according to a 2019 survey. In fact, DOTA 2 like games were the second lowest ranked games next to MMORPGs for this age set. The top game genre liked was First-Person Shooters for this age set. In comparison, single-player RPGs was number two with 26 to 35-year-olds. Right below that was again First-Person Shooters for 26 to 35-year-olds. Games like DOTA 2 came in fifth.

Photo by Michu Đăng Quang on Unsplash

That’s Warframe’s problem it doesn’t easily fit in any of these descriptions because it’s not an arena, it’s not RPG, it’s not battle royale, or even first-person shooter. It’s like a giant sushi roll of undeterminable contents. Which may be why so many players don’t get past the first two hours of gameplay. But demographic changes wouldn’t be causing people not to return unless a bunch of players just died suddenly.

Since a lot of Steam numbers for Warframe are partially dependent on China game play, maybe this is just China cracking down on VPN use by gamers there. As a result, we could be seeing a downward slope in some of these games as China removes these players’ access.

Should this mean you stop playing or not bother to play Warframe?

I can’t advise you on this. I use Warframe to help deal with my chronic migraine symptoms because I don’t want to take lots of painkillers. All I can say is I like the game and have invested both time and money into it. But I’m not your typical Warframe gamer.

Photo by Thought Catalog on Unsplash

Mogamu calls certain Warframe gamers avocados. I’ll gladly take that title since I know avocados to have 12 health benefits. Plus, we can turn the pit into a natural dye. All around an avocado player might be useful to Warframe. But a pure diet of avocados isn’t healthy, even for Warframe.

It’s one thing to respond to gamers’ voices, but the axiom of the squeaky wheel typically applies here. Sometimes that squeaky wheel is financially living in a far distant land.

I really think gamemaster Steve needs to really hire a gaming continuity director. Someone to help him build games that keep the game world and lore on tract and allow the diversity of the players to co-exist in harmony within that game play.

Steam player game statistics sourced and compiled from Steam Database.

Seth Underwood

Written by

a writer of mostly science fiction, sufferer of chronic migraines, and 945 hours of playing the game Warframe so far. Profile image says Seth.

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