Your points are valid and intelligently made, but I want to emphasize that I am not predicting that the oil industry will go to zero. ‘Death’ in this case means it will lose both its profitability (because a 20% drop in demand will eliminate profits in an industry with high fixed costs) and its political power (ensuring car and truck transportation is a *big* deal in geopolitics).
We still get to use plastics, and oil for international air travel will require much more time to displace than oil for short commutes. Yet many of the major oil companies we know and respect will go bankrupt in the next decade just the same.
And, as a postscript, the whaling industry wasn’t killed by oil. Whaling continued up until the international ban in the 1970s, over a century after petroleum started to be pumped out of wells in Pennsylvania. We stopped whaling mostly because we ran out of whales; the story about oil is a myth, and I’m not sure why it survives.