Choosing an Electric Car
The majority of people are not thinking about electric cars as a solution to their immediate needs. Electric cars are too expensive (generally true), have too little range (we will come back to this later) and the infrastructure does not exist to support them (depends where you are). In a nutshell, for most places apart from China these devices are still the preserve of the wealthy. Meanwhile, China has 99% of the world’s 250 million electric bikes, 99% of the electric buses and last year saw 1.1 million electric cars find a new home. Way to go China!
Too Expensive
As a ballpark, you need somewhere in the region of 35,000 to 45,000 USD to buy an electric car. Double that for a premium car from Jaguar, Audi or Tesla. This is within but pushing the boundaries of the average purchase price range in the United States of circa 36,000 USD. Statistically speaking, half of people in the USA spend less than 36,000 USD on a new car, making electric cars a little but not crazy expensive in that geography. The same holds true in West Europe and Japan, with new cars being around 31,000 Euro in Germany and about 2.1 million yen in Japan. Somewhat ironically, for reasons we will explore later, the largest gap between a gas car and an electric car is in Japan. A Nissan Leaf costs around 3.1 million yen, 10,000 USD ahead of the average purchase price. Ouch.
Too Little Range
This is one of the more fascinating topics related to electric cars. The VW e-Golf gets about 190km on a full charge. The BMW i3 gets upward of 235km. The Tesla Model 3 gets about 335km. The Nissan Leaf gets 350km. Moving upmarket, a Jaguar I Pace gets 380km. None of these are even close to a gas car at 660km let alone a diesel car (north of 800km). At a glance it appears the Golf and i3 are so far behind as to be unusable. The Tesla, Leaf and i-Pace appear suitable only if you take short trips. However, as with the case of all emotional reactions, we must temper our thoughts with nearby facts. The average American drives 94km per day. The average EU citizen drives 33km per day. The average Japanese citizen drives 13km per day.
From this perspective all of the above cars are perfectly suitable for daily use, especially when we consider that an electric car is not a gas or diesel car. It is an appliance far more like a cell phone than a traditional vehicle and charging (refueling) should be approached with a different mental model. The best usage pattern of such vehicles is not to empty and fill the batteries (tank). When you get home you plug the car in and the next morning it is charged. Alternatively, when you get to work or the shopping mall, you do the same. Plugging an electric car in takes no more time, effort or mess than plugging in any other appliance, in contrast to the more time consuming and more unpleasant situation of gassing a car.
Many people simply do not want to plug in a car at the end of a day. This is a valid desire and in the United States it is a valid concern. However, in Europe the e-Golf will take you five days without a charge and the i3 seven days. In Japan you are looking at 14 days for the former and 18 for the latter. Thus outside of the United States it is perfectly feasible to go a week without charging even on lower range electric vehicles. Once again, we need to temper the experience of changing from gas to battery with the realism of changing from gas to battery. It is perfectly realistic.
Too Little Infrastructure
This is the issue most dependent on geography. In 2018 the United States had around 20,000 charging stations for electric vehicles. The EU has around 100,000 charging points albeit with 76% concentrated across just four countries. Japan has more than 27,000 charging points. This draws a picture whereby owning an electric vehicle in larger, more developed European countries or Japan makes long distance trips with recharging an easy prospect while owning an electric vehicle in the United States probably limits you to home-charging or driving in cities with a bias to California. How peculiar that the smallest region (Japan) has the most charging points per given unit of distance, the largest region (United States) has the least.
PlugShare, an online community of electric vehicle locations provides some useful rough estimates of geographic coverage. When viewed holistically even the United States is not doing too badly. Let’s take a few snapshots from their community to illustrate this. Bear in mind these are not showing individual chargers but rather community-mapped clusters.
There are more charging points than you might expect given these high-level community-driven overviews. For example, in the PlugShare map of Europe it appears the Czech Republic has no public charging infrastructure. However, even a map from one local service provider show widespread availability.
ChargeMap, while not providing a good global overview, also shows extensive infrastructure even outside of the main cities.
This is what charging looks like in the southern part of “empty” Norway:
This is what electric vehicle infrastructure looks like in the “empty” British Isles:
That said, at least parts of North Dakota look a little lonely:
We end up with a reasonable conclusion that you can own an electric vehicle with little fear of access to public charging infrastructure in urban centers throughout the United States, across all of Western Europe, and anywhere in Japan. With the exclusion of a few more remote areas finding a public charging spot is no harder or only marginally harder than a gas station, and this is a situation that is changing every day in a positive direction. While it is disingenuous to say things like Japan has more electric vehicle charging points than gas stations (only if you include private chargers in homes), the global infrastructure is growing rapidly.
Pulling it all Together
The most important consideration when it comes to the suitability and range of gas, diesel or electric vehicles is how we drive. Electric vehicles have an advantage in city traffic, as they waste no energy in idle, as opposed to the 10% to 40% decrease in efficiency for internal combustion engines. Things change somewhat when it comes to highway driving, though the difference in efficiency is not as pronounced as might be assumed.
A Dutch magazine examined how the BMW i3 2019 model performed at highway different speeds and concluded that driving at 130kmh instead of 100~110kmh resulted in a 30.8% reduction in efficiency. A similar effect occurs in internal combustion vehicles, with FuelEconomy.gov noting aggressive highway speeds lower efficiency by roughly 15% to 30%. The real difference is the amount of fuel on board. Electric vehicles have less fuel in reserve than internal combustion engines so will not go as far between pit stops.
It is fair to conclude that an electric car like the BMW i3 is probably not ideal if you are a daily traveller of over 150km on highways and you have an average speed of around 120kmh (75mph), especially if you live in one of the more remote areas of the United States. The same applies to the Nissan Leaf or the Tesla 3 if you are a daily traveller of over 250km on highways. However, in other use cases electric vehicles are equal to or better than an internal combustion vehicles.
How to Choose an Electric Car
All electric cars offer a few advantages over traditional gas or diesel vehicles. First of all, an electric car has a much simpler and efficient engine and drivetrain, offering an immediate reduction in service intervals and the potential for breakdowns. You are looking at maintenance savings of around 25% and fuel savings of around 50%. The simpler drivetrain also means your car has no gears, providing smooth linear acceleration as a little creature comfort.
Things start to get more model specific when we consider range, build quality and warranties. The best way to explore this is to pick a few representative examples and explain why they provide such representation.
The Nissan Leaf
This is the archetypical “good enough” car with between 280km (standard range) and 350km (long range) driving capability. It is reasonably priced and well built with seating for five. There are some compromises to keep it accessible. The first and most noticeable is that the cabin materials veer towards the cheap side. They would not be out of place in a car costing 10,000 USD less. The second is that the battery is air cooled rather than having a liquid cooling thermal management system. This may impact long-term battery life if you live in very hot or very cold climates.
Think of this as the Honda Civic of electric cars. For most people, especially in the long-range variant, this is probably the car to get. Unremarkable but well-balanced. Backed by a major maker with a strong reputation and proven over a long production cycle. It will do everything well, albeit without much excitement, and without making any visual statement.
The Tesla Model 3
This is the “statement” car that is rapidly becoming quite common on the roads. With solid range, a cleverly packaged interior, and the top model offering almost gasoline car range (a claimed 530km, more realisticaly 335km), this is perhaps the easiest drop-in replacement for a traditional car. However, it is a little pricy, starting at around 40,000 USD for the base model and running to 50,000 USD for the long range model, excluding most taxes.
Think of this as the Toyota Prius of electric cars. It is currently a little unique, it has pretty strong features, and it offers quite a lot of fun in its space. That said, this is not a Toyota. Tesla has a mixed reputation with respect to fit and finish, the car is relatively new in its production cycle, and the company is frequently teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. This is probably not the car to buy as your sole transport unless you have the economic resources and the patience to deal with the above.
The Jaguar or the Audi
If you are buying either of these you have a lot of disposable capital. Think of them as the…er…Jaguar or Audi of the electric car. The Jaguar is actually built by Magna Steyr in Austria, the company which produces the BMW Z4 and the Mercedes G Wagon, offering some assurance it will be more reliable than typically seen with Jaguar vehicles. The Audi is an Audi. It is excellently put together and in all likelihood it will stay that way.
These cars reflect the DNA of their makers. The Jaguar pushes the boundaries with respect to body and structure design, offering a unique profile, and a solid interior marred only by the annoying entertainment system they currently persist in using. The Audi is almost invisible in so far as any Audi is, with the electric heart hidden under a mostly conventional shell.
The BMW i3
I must confess my bias. This is the electric car that I purchased.
The i3 is a concept car with a carbon fiber frame, interior trim using plant fiber beside open pore wood, and seats from recycled drink bottles that somehow escaped a corporate bureaucracy. It is more expensive and has a lower range than many of the mainstream electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf or Tesla Model 3. However, it allows you to experience the cutting edge of design and manufacturing. It is an 80% recyclable car built with zero emissions and designed around efficient production rather than bolting more battery cells together. The whole device weighs less than 1,300kg, is compact on the outside, but offers surprising amounts of passenger space.
The 2019 model brings a 42.2kw battery (120ah in BMW speak) and a range of circa 235km, making it a city car with highway abilities, though still behind the circa 280~350km offered by cars like the Nissan Leaf. On the other hand, it is way ahead in terms of things like cabin quality and comfort.
What about the Tesla Model S and X?
These are statement cars that are getting a little long in the tooth. With pricing comparable to the Jaguar and Audi, these cars are less compelling than they once were, though they both offer exceptionally long ranges: 450–610km for the Model S, 375–505km for the Model X. Perhaps the correct way of looking at them today is as category vehicles based on a mature platform.
The Model S may look like a saloon car (it is actually a hatchback) but in driving experience it is closer to a traditional Grand Tourer (GT). This is a car that will swallow the kilometers in comfort for a group of four adults, and while fit and finish may not match them, can be conceptually compared to a BMW 8 Series or a Maserati Quattroporte. The Model X, on the other hand, is a large, safe and capable SUV with some interesting touches like (slightly unreliable) gull-wing rear doors. It will load the kids, even lots of kids, and it will run smoothly, calmly and with a touch of style.
The usual Tesla provisos apply. Fit and finish may have a few hiccups. Things like those gull-wing doors may cause a few headaches. The manufacturer will probably continue to flirt with bankruptcy. However, these cars changed the world, and they still have a lot going for them.
What about the Renault Zoe and…
There are quite a few electric cars out there and all have their place. However, some cars like VW e-Golf appear to be transition cars, testing various electric features without committing to large ranges, and with an inevitable feeling of being positioned to be surpassed in the near future by their own manufacturers. This can lead to some nervousness in the choice of vehicle.
The average person, with the average budget, and the average requirements probably wants to err towards the Nissan Leaf as a mature, well-supported platform with a bright future. The Renault Zoe is almost directly comparable in terms of cost, range and quality. If you can afford a little more the choices becomes between something like the BMW i3 or the Tesla Model 3. This is effectively a choice between a carbon-fiber concept car biased towards design-first inside and out, or a sleeker and longer range vehicle with a touch of ingenuity throughout. The i3 will probably be surpassed by a more pedestrian offering before the Model 3 is surpassed by another mainstream car. It is a matter of taste.
The interesting thing is that all of these cars, from the Nissan Leaf to the Audi e-Tron, are excellent. All of them are as good or better than traditional cars. The majority of them will bring a smile to your face. All of them will cosset you in silence and low costs. None of them will leave you in a position of exceptional risk and regret. For example, even if Tesla as the most fragile company folds, there are already enough models on the road to assure third-party support throughout North America and Europe. Meanwhile, mature platforms from BMW and others will be just as reliable and as well supported as any other vehicle they make.
Weight, Safety and Lingering Concerns
Electric vehicles are different to internal combustion vehicles. This raises questions about how these difference impact the user experience or the safety of these vehicles. First and foremost, electric batteries are heavy, and have correspondingly different handling characteristics.
On the internal combustion side of things, a 2018 Ford Fiesta weighs 1,169 kg (city car), a 2019 Toyota Camry LE weighs 1,495 kg (sedan), and a 2019 Mercedes E450 Sedan weighs 1,845 kg (luxury car). Meanwhile on the electric side of things, a 2019 Nissan Leaf+ weighs 1,748 kg, a 2019 Tesla Model 3 weighs 1,645 kg, and a 2019 Jaguar I Pace weighs 2,170 kg. You are looking at between 150 and 600kg of difference in weight, usually offset by very high torque in electric drivetrains, but certainly helping to explain some range limitations inherent to our current battery efficiency.
Electric cars have a very low center of gravity due to the batteries being placed on a “skateboard” design rather than clustered relatively high up in an engine bay. This leads to generally excellent drive dynamics and weight distribution between front and rear wheels. The placement also contributes to safety. The batteries, just like the occupants, are protected front, back and side by the car frame. Indeed, the latitude of the new drivetrain technology tends to allow electric cars to be more compact and safer than internal combustion cars.
The European NCAP safety ratings provide useful grounding in this context. The Nissan Leaf, the Tesla Model 3, the Jaguar I Pace and Renault Zoe all score a top rating at 5 stars. Somewhat disappointing is the BMW i3, scoring 4 stars when tested in 2013. The primary contributing factor was that the squat, blunt shape of the car proved unforgiving to pedestrians on impact, though whiplash protection also played a part.
And the elephant in the room? The exploding battery issue. It turns out it is not really an issue.
The United States National Highway Traffic Safety Administration noted that their research indicated the “propensity and severity of fires and explosions from … lithium ion battery systems are anticipated to be somewhat comparable to or perhaps slightly less than those for gasoline or diesel vehicular fuels.” Tesla noted that data from their active deployments showed “five fires for every billion miles traveled, compared to a rate of 55 fires per billion miles traveled in gasoline cars.” Meanwhile, the nature of the powerpacks has a bias towards slow-moving thermal runaway rather than the explosive reaction of gasoline fuels.
When not to buy a new Electric Car
There are two clear scenarios where you should not buy a new electric car. The first is equally applicable to gasoline or diesel cars and is related to personal economics. If you cannot afford a new car with cash (disposable income) then you should not invest in a new car. You should buy a nice second-hand car, perhaps three to five years old, and save yourself anything from 30–50% off the purchase price of a new car. In short, if you cannot afford a new car with cash, you cannot afford a new car. Buying one will put unnecessary economic strain or risk on you and your family.
The second scenario is more unique but not exclusive to electric vehicles. If you can afford such a car with cash but it is at your economic limit (you have no spare cash left over), you are placing yourself at some economic risk. While in general an electric car is cheaper and likely more reliable than a traditional car, it is still relatively new technology, and there may be unexpected or sudden costs. This is unlikely but economic prudence is the key to economic safety. If something goes horribly wrong it could be more expensive to fix the electric car.
Buying Second-Hand
The biggest worry for second hand electric cars is the battery pack. Batteries degrade over use and time, with the only operative question being “how much,” and the concern being that electric cars have big and expensive battery packs. The good news is that this worry, as with range, is somewhat overblown.
The Toyota Prius hybrid has been on the road for the best part of three decades and comes with an eight year, 100,000 mile battery warrantee across the United States, 10 years and 150,000 miles in California. This is our best data-point for predicting long-term vehicle battery reliability, though admittedly the Prius has a much smaller battery pack than a pure electric vehicle.
However, Tesla, Nissan and BMW have had large battery packs on the road for almost ten years without any serious mishap, barring some early teething woes with the Nissan Leaf in hot climates like Arizona, something that was addressed with extended warrantee. The numbers are looking more promising than expected, with data suggesting Telsa Model S battery packs retain about 90% capacity after 160,000 miles.
We know with certainty today that a battery pack will last well over eight years with 20–30% degradation unless grossly abused. BMW guarantees 70% capacity after eight years on the i3 with the usual geographic provisos (100,000 miles in the USA, local law mandated 150,000 miles in California, 100,000km elsewhere in the world). It is the same battery in each car regardless, so you can choose an optimistic number with regards distance travelled. Indeed, BMW has said they expect their battery packs to last 15 years or more and they expect those packs to have around 70% capacity. Andreas Raith, BMW’s head of battery development, said “It’s not a marketing statement, those batteries are designed to last as long as the vehicle.” Not too bad!
In short, you can buy a second-hand electric car between three and five years old without too much concern regarding the battery. It should give you five years or more of useful service, and there is a reasonable chance it will reach ten without being troublesome.
Next Steps
Electric cars are the future and you can have a slice of that today. Perhaps the most heartening thing is that each year has more cars at more price points on the road. You will be able to afford a new or second-hand electric car in a shorter rather than longer horizon. Keep an open mind to the experience and you probably won’t want to go back. At the very least book a test drive and experience some of that magic right now.
Postscript: Keeping an Electric Car Happy
Ready to take the plunge? One bit of advice. As mentioned earlier in this article you should think of an electric car as an appliance. It is more like a cell phone than a traditional vehicle and charging (refueling) should be approached with a different mental model.
For some cars such as the Nissan Leaf experience indicates the best use pattern is not to empty and fill the batteries (tank). Rather you should charge the car opportunistically with an eye to keeping the battery level between 30 and 70% capacity. Doing this, avoiding driving like a maniac, and using slow chargers (normal, 200V or 7kw) rather than fast chargers (50kw) will keep the batteries unstressed. Think of it like driving a gasoline car gently to keep the engine in tip-top condition.
This does not apply to all electric cars. For example, the BMW i3 has an active battery management system. It rebalances the battery pack when charged to 80% or above, a process that helps ensure both a long-life and optimal range availability. Rebalancing is a slow process undertaken by the car whenever you are not using it, suggesting that the i3 should usually have a charge level of 80% or above for best performance. The i3 also has active thermal management so fast charging should not cause untimely degradation of the battery system.
Pleased note this does not mean you cannot occasionally fully charge and occasionally run the battery way down, or you cannot occasionally use fast chargers while keeping great long-term battery life. Both options fit neatly into road trips and will have no adverse impact on your car. Heck, you can just run the battery down and fast charge it all the time if you want, though in such a use case you can probably expect closer to 70% of full capacity after eight years rather than 90% or more.