After years of knocking on the door, the Raptors are finally ready to break through
The Kyle Lowry, Nick Nurse, and Jonas Valanciunas trio has been through a lot.
Two first-round letdowns in 2014 and 2015 were only the start. It transitioned into a heartbreaking trilogy against their East kryptonite, even with three propitious regular seasons that inspired hope and confidence.
First, it was a 56-win season that got washed away by LeBron James in an artificially competitive East Finals. Soon after, they had an injury-plagued 51-win campaign that triggered a move for Serge Ibaka in order to prepare them for the postseason — ultimately swept by James.
Last year, everything was trending in the right direction. They coasted to 59 wins, their highest SRS score (a team rating that considers point differential and strength of schedule) in franchise history, and the number one seed by a margin of four games. The offense was flourishing to a degree nobody expected. In a one-summer experiment to revamp the style and halfcourt tendencies, Nurse made a larger name for himself as the lead assistant. Toronto finished their final season with the Lowry and DeMar DeRozan pairing by scoring 112.9 points per 100 possessions — second to only Houston and 1.5 points ahead of their previous year.
Still, good fortune could not fall in their laps. Nobody in the NBA would ever wish for an injury, but you can definitely sense that Toronto gathered as a team during the entire Cavs-Pacers first-round series last April, nervously watching with sweaty hands as Indiana pushed Cleveland to the brink. When LeBron hit the walk-off three in Game 5 and capped it off with a 45-piece in Game 7 to advance, the Raptors knew it would be an uphill battle.
In competitive fashion — much different than before — James took a broom through Canada … again. With the state of the East in a weird place, there’s a very good chance Toronto would’ve hosted the NBA Finals for the first time in history had Cleveland been prematurely ousted by Indiana.
Now, Lowry and Valanciunas are the only players left from the beginning of this journey. Nurse has survived, too, but now with more responsibility.
The aftermath of three straight losses to James featured a criticized coaching change and monumental trade. Raptors’ President Masai Ujiri decided to replace Dwane Casey as head coach with Nurse, the architect of the offense and someone that could easily keep the team chemistry intact. Two months later, he sent the franchise’s all-time leading scorer to San Antonio in a trade, looking to make a home-run move for a top four player in the world.
As Toronto sits at 19–4, with Kawhi Leonard appearing as fresh and terrifying on the court as his greatest Spurs days, it’s trending toward a grand-slam for Ujiri and the front office.
Most knew they would be competent. Quite a few knew they would be legitimate title contenders (hi there!). But expecting them to have the NBA’s best record — by three full games — at the end of November wasn’t a popular stance.
Yet here the Raptors are, eradicating teams by 8.0 points per 100 possessions. That includes a +12.9 Net Rating in first halves and +11.0 directly out of halftime in third quarters.
Through 23 games, they typically haven’t needed to keep the throttle down in fourth quarters, as garbage time is usually triggered. That is, of course, excluding the last two games versus the unrelenting Grizzlies and streaking Warriors.
Those two wins revealed a stark contrast in game flow and how Toronto will be tested, while simultaneously fitting one central theme: They know how to close out games. Whether it’s an offensive ambush to get out of a deficit or weathering a brutal storm with their defense, this team generates answers in any situation.
In Memphis, the Raptors trailed by 17 in the third quarter despite playing well to the naked eye. It resulted in them having to be incandescently efficient from all areas in the final stretch, coming back to steal a road win against the league’s fourth-best defense:
In the second half alone, they torched the Grizzlies by shooting 10-of-14 from two, 10-of-17 from three, and 13-of-18 at the free throw stripe. They had a second-half offensive rating of 140.0 while holding Memphis to just 95.6 per 100 possessions during that span. It was an epic display of how scary this team can be, especially when put in adverse moments.
Then, Thursday happened.
With a battered Warriors unit entering The North, the Raptors were comfortable favorites heading into Thursday’s potential preview of the NBA Finals. However, they did not account for the most gifted scorer of any generation completely wrecking them in the second half.
After leading by as many as 18 in the first 24 minutes, Toronto fell victim to Durant’s 51-point night as he caught fire in the third and fourth quarters. Golden State actually poured a 135.6 offensive rating on Drake in the second half, with the Raptors trying to do the inverse of their comeback versus Memphis: Keep the lead and make enough defensive stops to hold on:
Nurse and the crew closed it out in overtime, forcing the Warriors into five turnovers in five minutes.
The last two games for Toronto have been a roller-coaster, but they still leave the ride with the satisfaction of a clutch win.
And they’ve been doing quite a bit of winning to start the season.
This is the best start (by record) in franchise history, with Toronto winning over 82 percent of its games and excelling in the infrequent clutch situations they enter:
*Note: Don’t be confused by the Offensive/Defensive Rating ranks. A lower rating is better defensively, but the rank has improved because the league has been in the middle of a ridiculous offensive boom in the last three seasons.*
With a 6–2 record in games that are within five points with five minutes to play, the reason for this historic start goes beyond one player. It’s the combination of cultural continuity, the trust and empowerment handed to bench/role players to make proper reads, and the integration of a much deadlier isolation king compared to what Toronto has had over the last few years.
Like every beautiful orchestra, though, it all starts with the conductor.
For this team, even if it doesn’t seem accurate with a high-profile superstar next to him, Kyle Lowry is the engine that makes this go. And this has been the case throughout the entire journey.
Lowry isn’t shattering your ankles with any Kemba Walker shiftiness, flying through the open floor with any Russell Westbrook explosion, or making you contemplate early retirement with any Steph Curry 50-burgers.
However, he does have a little bit of something from all three, harnessing his diverse skill-set as he dictates how the action flows for Toronto. His utilization of ball-screens and manipulation of his defender reminds you of Walker in flashes, while his competitiveness and passing ability in transition can mirror Westbrook.
But frankly, Lowry is the match that ignites Toronto’s fire, which ultimately burns opponents to ashes. In that sense, his leadership, selfless nature, and exquisite patience on the floor is directly comparable to Curry’s responsibility for the Dubs.
While raw numbers are never going to do Lowry justice in Toronto’s offensive approach that prioritizes sharing the wealth, he’s utilizing a smarter attack than ever before. It’s made him a more unpredictable offensive weapon that defenses have to account for, as he perfectly blends the (silly) labels of “traditional point guard” and “score-first point guard.”
By installing a lethal pull-up transition three over the years and becoming a more complete pick-and-roll playmaker in the halfcourt, Lowry has refined his style to such a degree that defenders don’t know what to plan for.
Is he going to come out instantly aggressive and take six triples in the first half? Is he going to run a dozen pick-and-rolls just to get Siakam and Serge Ibaka’s juices flowing early? Is he just going to chill in the corner for a few possessions and be patient while Leonard collapses the defense? Or is he going to channel more of his inner-Steph and set multiple off-ball screens to help get the offense clicking?
All of Lowry’s methods of attack are conducive to the Raptors’ success, and he’s become even more selfless this season. Lowry is taking his fewest field goals per 36 minutes since 2012–13, his first year in Toronto. In fact, only 13.1 percent of the team’s field goal attempts per game have come from Lowry, which is far lower than the 18.1 percent in 2016–17 and 19.2 percent in 2015–16.
Much of that is just the byproduct of the roster becoming more versatile and the offensive ideology changing. However, that shouldn’t completely take the credit away from Lowry. What’s overlooked is that it’s not easy to tell a 31-year-old point guard that he, as well as the team, should alter the way they do things. But the last two years, they went all-in to find a way to become more prepared for situations — like the playoffs — that require more than two scoring threats.
Now about to turn 33, Lowry’s assist percentage is a career-high 39.8, which is the percentage of teammates’ field goals that a player assisted while he’s on the court. A small uptick in turnovers is expected when you make a concerted effort to play this way, but the Raptors will certainly live with sacrificing a couple possessions per game for the benefit of this mentality trickling down to the younger players.
Plus, even while leading the league in assist points created per game (22.5), Lowry’s individual assist-to-turnover ratio is through the roof:
2014–15: 2.73
2015–16: 2.20
2016–17: 2.41
2017–18: 2.93
2018–19: 3.89
His ambitious attack in transition after Toronto forces a turnover or grabs a long rebound puts pressure on the defense like never before. It’s not close to the same level as Curry, mostly because Curry has the furthest and most untouchable range of anyone and he plays with two additional otherworldly shooters, but he forces opposing defenses to think almost as much.
If they play him tight and make an effort to take away his pull-up, Lowry uses his keen eye to hit the shooters on the wing or corners, making the right pass that yields an open three.
The efficiency off Lowry’s passes backs it up, too. His Raptors teammates have shot 67-of-170 (39.4 percent) directly off his passes this season, a figure higher than the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the league (Golden State).
When you factor in the three players benefiting the most, it’s even more impressive. Leonard is 12-of-29 (41.4 percent) from deep when the pass comes from Lowry. That’s much greater than the 13-of-43 (30.2 percent) mark Leonard has shot on all his other triples. Ibaka is 10-of-20 (50 percent) when set up by Lowry, compared to just 6-of-34 (17.6 percent) on all other threes. Then, there’s Danny Green. The efficiency boost isn’t the story for him, but rather the proportion of his long-range looks that come from Lowry. Out of his 134 attempts on the season, 52 of them (or 38.8 percent) have come from his passes. Green is having a career year in terms of True Shooting percentage and how often he’s getting up threes (5.8 per game).
Is that all to say Lowry’s playmaking is the sole reason a bunch of Raptors are shooting well off his passes? No, not exactly. We know basketball is weird sometimes. A decent chunk of those looks could be within a broken play, where it’s just one simple five-foot pass that any player on Earth can make, and a shooter nails a contested three.
More often than not, though, he’s helping the bigs (namely Ibaka) with his ability to run pick-and-roll and attract the opposing center in the lane. There’s also his underrated change-of-pace attack in transition that forces extra defenders inside to help their big. He makes simple but timely reads and it prevents the Raptors’ offense from stalling:
The final play in that clip demonstrates what Nurse and the Raptors wanted to focus more on last season; put the ball in the hands of other playmakers and let Lowry do some of his damage off the ball, or from the weak side. VanVleet drives, Siakam sets a back screen for Lowry in the corner. But then, Lowry reads the play and sees two defenders flying at him, so he puts the ball on the floor and zips a pass back to VanVleet, who relocated to the strong side wing.
So far, transition has been the main bread and butter for this offense. That’s where Lowry is at his best right now. The calmness he pushes with on the break allows him to keep the defense guessing. He’ll either draw a help defender that’s concerned about his pull-up, or let Leonard control it after a steal and wait for his opportunity on the wing. Regardless who initiates it, sharpshooting Green usually benefits the most:
The Raptors are starting 18.7 percent of their possessions in transition, the fourth-highest proportion in the league, per Cleaning The Glass. They’re combining that with 131 points per 100 transition plays, the fifth-best efficiency. But it’s important to note, three of the teams ahead of them in efficiency (Wolves, Spurs, Blazers) aren’t running nearly as much as Toronto.
Lowry enjoys getting the ball out of his hands quickly on the break, as he’s become of the league’s best at the “push ahead” pass. It’s not quite a full-length outlet, but he puts the ball right on the money when he notices a cutter outrunning the defense. It’s one of his top traits now, which is leading to his increased assist numbers:
What undoubtedly helps with this is the emergence of Siakam, who may soon become the Eastern Conference’s version of Draymond Green.
Siakam’s transition numbers are absurd to start this season, as Nekias Duncan covered in his own breakdown of the third-year forward that’s currently the leader of any “Most Improved Player” pack.
It helps that Lowry and Leonard don’t have to lead the break every time, with Siakam feeling more than comfortable enough to push after collecting a rebound. His vision probably won’t be Draymond-like for another year or two, but having this weapon allows for Lowry (a dangerous shooting threat) to head directly to the corner and impose tough decisions on a transition defense. You have to slow down the Siakam train coming at you, worry about knockdown shooters, and oh yeah … the best player on the floor can wait for a missed rotation:
Lowry and Siakam have benefited from each other this season more than ever, especially with this new trend of Siakam drilling outside shots.
After a very rough start in the first 12 games, shooting just 4-of-18 (22.2 percent) from three, Siakam has hit the hottest streak of his career. Over the last 11 games, he’s 12-of-23 (52.2 percent) from long-distance.
It’s a complete flip-flop for him. Lowry’s dribble penetration is working to get him open in the corner, since Lowry knows defenders would rather give Siakam an open three than any other option in the Raptors’ starting unit.
Siakam is now shooting 44.4 percent on corner threes for the season, which is more than Nurse could’ve asked for after the 25.7 percent mark last year. Is this an early season, small-sample size overreaction? It could be. But it also could be the perfect break for Toronto to become title favorites. When stacking up with the elite teams in the league and evaluating your chances in the playoffs, you have to improve on the margins. Series between any of the top four teams in the league are going to be so remarkably close this time, you need something unexpected to appear or go your way. Siakam speeding up the evolution from a bench piece to uncontainable versatility is what moves the needle for Toronto.
The scary part is, as a team, the Raptors are sporting the league’s second-best offense without shooting particularly well.
Their shot profile is almost perfect for them, taking 69.5 percent of their shots from either the restricted area or three-point range — including the fourth-most corner threes in the league. However, they are currently 20th in above-the-break three-point percentage (34.4 percent). Leonard does take his share of contested threes, but Toronto, in general, is barely hitting anything when the closest defender is within 2–4 feet:
The positive from this is clearly that Toronto’s offense is creating 17.9 threes per game where the closest defender is more than six feet away (wide-open) and nailing 40 percent of those looks. It’s the seventh-most “wide-open” threes in the league, and that’s what truly matters.
Leonard has predictably turned them into a much better mid-range team than before, which is ironic considering DeMar DeRozan was famous for his tough shot-making from there. The fact is, Leonard is just twice the shooter DeRozan ever will be. And in the end, that matters.
Leonard is 51-of-102 (50 percent!) from the mid-range, catapulting Toronto up to first overall in efficiency on long two-pointers. Usually, pundits would say to remove the mid-range from a team’s diet. But when you have assassins that thrive from the mid-range once they’re crowded and forced off the perimeter, it’s silly to not take advantage of it.
The Raptors and Warriors, two teams led by the mid-range killers of Leonard, Durant, and Klay Thompson, know how to strike the balance and find good shots for them.
What’s been the most surprising part about Toronto’s start, however, is the varying style and offensive switch-up that Serge Ibaka has experienced.
From Austin Clemens’s site “Swish 2.0,” here was Ibaka’s full shot chart last season:
In what was considered a disappointing year for Ibaka in 2017–18, he hoisted 37.9 percent of his total field goals from three-point range. Granted, he didn’t shoot poorly last year (36 percent), but it was still markedly lower than what he was shooting upon arrival in Toronto. He only took 31.6 percent of his shots from inside of 10 feet, getting away from his finishing opportunities at the rim that made him a pest.
Heading into December of this season, he’s been a very different player offensively:
Ibaka has limited a bunch of the bad, contested three-point attempts that were becoming too frequent last year. Only 19.8 percent of his shots have come from deep rather than 37.9 percent, and he’s being more selective. Most of this is because he’s just spending less time popping after screening, and more time putting the ball on the floor during the short or long roll. It also helps that Siakam is now the starter, giving them a big that can penetrate while Ibaka hangs out near the post, or patiently wait for the action to unfold:
Now, Ibaka is taking 52 percent of his shots from within 10 feet because of his willingness to set better screens, dive to the rim, and attack mismatches in the post.
After his first 22 games last year, Ibaka only had 22 post-up possessions and was scoring 1.26 points per field goal attempt in the post.
This season, he’s played 22 games and has 42 post-up possessions — scoring 1.46 points per attempt. This is when Ibaka is at his best, with the three-point threat being further down the list of important things he does for the team.
The crazy part? Ibaka is only shooting 29.6 percent from three on the shots he does take, and the Raptors are still trouncing people.
The Best Team in the East, with an MVP Candidate
If Thursday’s showdown with the defending champions told the world anything, it’s that Kawhi Leonard is the one demon Golden State doesn’t want to see. When they’re fully healthy, the Warriors and Draymond Green feel as if there’s at least an answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. It might be hard to achieve, but his lack of Leonard’s shooting range makes it more manageable.
With Leonard, they know he’s had their number for the last two meetings. Dating back to the 2017 West Finals, Leonard has now scored 63 points on 21-of-37 field goals against them. In those two games, his true shooting percentage was 70.8 percent. He was a plus-21 in that Game 1 performance two years ago before injuring his ankle.
To say the Warriors are scared of facing Leonard in another series would be false. They still would have won that series if the injury didn’t happen, and now they have more offensive firepower about to be inserted into the lineup. Nevertheless, they were given another piece of evidence why a potential Finals matchup with Toronto would be the toughest adversity they’ve faced as a group.
On pace for 68 wins and resting seven games ahead of Boston in the East, it’s the Raptors who are ready to take the throne of the conference with James out of the picture.
If their offense is already this potent, look out in May.
