Behind Damian Lillard and offensive depth, the Portland Trail Blazers are making a statement

“It’s a dogfight. You can go out there and beat Golden State, and then come back and lose to Sacramento.”

It wasn’t a comment made out of jest. It was Damian Lillard’s attempt to put the merciless Western Conference into context.

Of course, this was before the Kings propelled to 6–3 and now fifth-place in the conference standings. Lillard has spent all seven years of his career in the West, which have given him enough time to recognize how consistent and prepared you must be to survive the 52-game grind. There aren’t nearly as many opponents you can pencil in a win against these days. While that can be said about the entire league with the rising talent pool, it’s especially apparent in the West —the only teams you can concretely say didn’t improve from last year are Houston and Phoenix.

The schedule is full of bloodthirsty adversaries trying to make a playoff push, with Portland routinely leading the NBA in travel distance due to the West covering more area than the East.

Lillard is aware of the fortitude it requires to have a top-tier record in this conference, perhaps more than any star. That’s because the Trail Blazers, every year, are counted out before the first game. Somehow, they are leading the group of regression candidates and aren’t expected to build on a year where they “overachieved.”

Yet, neither he or the team use the loaded battlefield as an excuse. Portland hasn’t missed the playoffs since Lillard’s rookie year. They were supposed to fall completely out of the picture once LaMarcus Aldridge bolted for San Antonio, but they’ve remained right in the mix — even with the landscape changing around them.

Just as their 49-win, three-seeded finish last year felt flukey or lucky to some degree, the Blazers have opened 2018–19 with an explosion that should remind us all of something.

Nothing in the upper-echelon of the West happens out of luck. Teams earn their placement, shape their own narrative, and command respect for finishing in the top three.

Unfortunately, the Blazers forfeited the respect component once they were wiped off the floor in a four-game sweep by New Orleans.

Eight games into this season, they’re on the right track to retrieve it.

Portland heads into its second meeting with the Lakers at 6–2, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions. As I mentioned in my projections column a few weeks ago, the defense may be subjected to a noticeable regression due to the loss of Ed Davis and implementing Nik Stauskas and Seth Curry, two guards that aren’t considered defensive showstoppers, into the second unit.

Unlike their odd 2017–18 journey, the Blazers are doing serious damage offensively. In the eight-game sample, they have a 115.3 offensive rating — second to only Golden State’s preposterous 120.3. In non-garbage time minutes, Portland elevates that to 116.3, still near the top at third overall.

The most perplexing (and impressive) part about it?

This top-three production is coming despite turning the ball over on 14.7 percent of their possessions (21st) and converting on just 56.9 percent of their shots at the rim (29th).

It’s actually remarkable. Only the lamentable Cavaliers (1–7) are shooting worse in the restricted area. Meanwhile, Golden State is destroying the Earth when they get near the basket, shooting 74 percent within four feet. Think about that: Portland is shooting 17 percentage points worse at the rim, yet they’re still second in offensive rating.

The other teams at the bottom of the league in restricted area efficiency aren’t quality offenses right now: Cleveland (18th), Brooklyn (16th), Houston (28th), and New York (22nd).

Most of the ineffectiveness is coming from C.J. McCollum, the six-year counterpart to Lillard that’s having a mediocre opening month.

McCollum has finished just seven of his 33 attempts at the rim (21.2 percent) to begin the season. When informed of his peculiar struggles inside the paint when he was (then) 4-of-25, he wasn’t the slightest bit concerned.

“I think I’m just missing easy layups,” McCollum said. “I have to do a better job of finishing, and I will.”

He’s 3-of-8 since, but the positive for the Blazers is that he’s being aggressive and looking to collapse the defense. Head coach Terry Stotts would probably still rather see him drive and get into the teeth of the defense instead of taking a heavy dosage of long, contested twos, like in previous years. Some of that reappeared in Thursday’s win over the Pelicans, but Portland’s offense was potent enough elsewhere to withstand it.

Filter out McCollum’s attempts at the rim, and the Blazers are shooting 62.4 percent near the basket, which would currently be above league-average. When he gets out of the funk, this offense might be humming even more.

Admittedly, it’s just eight games and we shouldn’t read too much into what’s happening until Thanksgiving, but the Blazers’ shot profile is resembling what they desired last year.

There’s just a couple important differences: They are making a strong effort to get completely to the rim instead of stopping short in the “floater range,” which is between 4–14 feet. Overall, 70.7 percent of Portland’s shot attempts are coming from either the restricted area or three-point range, versus the 65 percent last year:

It might seem like a marginal difference, but if it holds up and they ultimately find ways to flow into more threes, it could matter significantly.

Portland is 23-of-41 on corner triples so far this season, connecting on the best percentage across the league. However, they are still in the bottom eight in terms of the proportion of shots that come from the corner three. It’s important to keep in mind, though, it’s not absolutely required that you take 8-plus percent of your shots from the corner to be a fantastic offense. Out of the top 10 in corner three frequency right now, only three or four are competent offenses altogether.

It just would be nice for the Blazers if they could maximize their *best* type of shot thus far. But, as Lillard told me, there’s a reason certain teams aren’t getting the most optimal looks that often. While defenses are having a tougher time accounting for all the offensive weapons and rule changes in the last couple years, they are still disciplined.

“You would love to get a bunch of corner threes, but that’s the one shot in the league (coaches) tell you to never give up,” Lillard said. “If your guy is in the corner, you don’t help off the man in the corner. A lot of guys that aren’t considered great shooters, that’s the three they’ll knock down.”

McCollum looks at the structure of their offense and doesn’t think it’s realistic or healthy for them to only focus on the highly-coveted shot.

“The way we play, with the motion and a lot of movement, you don’t necessarily get stuck in the corner very often,” McCollum said. “So, it’s just about generating quality threes. Obviously when you get corner threes, you should make them.”

Lillard witnessed it first-hand last year with teammate Al-Farouq Aminu. Before last season, Aminu had never shot over 39 percent on corner triples. With Lillard and McCollum’s offensive attack through screen-rolls, Aminu was able to get free for better looks and greatly improved his shooting touch. He nailed 47 percent of his corner threes in 2017–18, which was in the 77th percentile of his position.

So far this season, Aminu is just 3-of-9 from the corner. But, it’s substantially better than his accuracy anywhere else from deep (5-of-20). He’s still benefitting from the roll gravity of Jusuf Nurkić, when weak side defenders cheat a little too far inside the paint:

Replace Nurkic with Collins; it doesn’t matter. Defenders sag off Aminu and it’s an easy pass for either big to make:

“It’s a pick your poison play,” Lillard said. “Any time you have a pick-and-roll to any clear side, a weak side defender has to choose: Do I want to come over and tag the big, or do I want to stay in the corner? It’s kind of like, you make them make a decision.”

In the play above, Thad Young wanted to provide help inside because Collins would’ve had a much smaller Victor Oladipo on him in the paint.

Lillard, who’s grown a lot as a decision-maker and still doesn’t get enough credit for how much attention he absorbs when coming off screens, can also make defenders pay for helping one pass away (big no-no):

This is just excellent spacing for Portland. In general, they’re in such better shape shooting-wise with Seth Curry and/or Nik Stauskas planted on the perimeter during 1–5 spread pick-and-roll.

Oh, and when they want to dump the ball down to Nurkic in the mid-post, Curry’s movement and off-ball screening are just two of many vehicles to get teammates free — which leads to confusion and open shots elsewhere:

Jrue Holiday nearly gets around this Curry screen, but he’s trailing too far behind the cutter (McCollum) and there’s no communication with Julius Randle to pick him up. It results in Tim Frazier providing emergency help, giving Lillard an open look for three. It has to feel great for Lillard to get some possessions as a spot-up shooter and not be worried about the offensive flow dying.

Here’s a variation of the same play, with Zach Collins as the post-up big and Lillard screening for Stauskas. At first, the defense thinks Stauskas is going to come to the ball on the strong side, but he slices directly through the backdoor into open space:

When Stotts rolls out the three-guard lineups (with any mixture of Lillard, McCollum, Curry, and Stauskas), the floor is almost perfectly spaced in transition. It gives them another weapon since he knows to sprint to the corners:

Then, when Portland wants to rest both Lillard and McCollum, it’s Evan Turner who’s been in control of leading the second unit in distribution, playmaking, and above everything else, waiting for good shots through patience.

Stotts is famous for his nifty flare screens in the halfcourt, and this one for Stauskas works like a charm. Watch how Stauskas comes from the left corner, curls around Collins when the screen is set, and drifts to the right corner. It’s Turner who leads the pass to get him an open shot:

Turner is performing well to start the year, shooting 55 percent from inside the arc. His long ball is just never going to be there, and that’s okay if he’s leading the offense this fluidly when needed. His assist percentage is up from 12.4 percent last year to over 26 percent in these first eight games. Naturally, putting the ball in his hands more is going to lead to turnovers. There have been plenty so far, which is a big reason why they’re below league-average in taking care of the ball. But as stated before, the offense is still second in the league with those giveaways.

The beautiful part about having Turner share the floor with Stauskas is that Portland can pull out gems like this, with Turner getting downhill after a quick handoff and absorb an extra defender, while “Sauce Castillo” can wait for the easiest shots of his life:

Another cog within the second unit that continues to thrive is Collins, the second-year center from Gonzaga. He showed quite a few flashes last year in his 1,000-plus minutes off the bench, helping their defense right away and attempting to stretch the floor. Opponents didn’t really respect him since he shot 31 percent from deep, but defenders might have to change their approach very quickly.

In his 21 minutes per game off the bench, Collins is averaging 10.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks. Translated to a per-36 minute scale, that’s 18.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.2 (!) blocks.

Collins is quickly becoming trusted to make plays and isn’t shying away from huge moments. Lillard, who clearly has the best on-court chemistry with the big man, attributes Collins’s growth to the veteran leadership he was around last year.

“I think for one, Zach got a lot of time on the floor last year as a rookie,” Lillard said. “In big minutes, he was on the court with Ed Davis. And Ed was always talking to him, always in his ear, kind of coaching him up and being another guy for him to count on. They were really good together, and I think that prepared him for this year.”

It’s true; Collins played 787 of his 1,045 minutes with Davis last year. When they were together, the Blazers had an extremely productive 110.1 offensive rating and 103.7 defensive rating (+6.4 per 100 possessions). Now with Davis in Brooklyn, a departure that most believed would haunt them defensively, Collins has a ton of responsibility to take over.

He has shot 23-of-35 (65.7 percent) from two-point range and 8-of-16 (50 percent) from deep to begin his sophomore year. When he gets to the line, he’s become an 85 percent free throw shooter in the small sample of 20 attempts. The list of “Most Improved Player” candidates will be far too long in April, but don’t count this dude out of it just because his minutes will be lower than most.

“Zach’s ahead of his time defensively, able to guard pick-and-rolls, able to close out well, and protect the rim,” McCollum said.

Collins’s offensive skill-set allows him to make a loud impact, such as when he pulls his defender out to the perimeter and then puts the ball on the floor:

He might not be the fastest, but he’s showing off an improved touch on these drives and off the catch in screen-roll action.

Although the Blazers notched wins over the Harden-less Rockets and Brow-less Pelicans, every win is going to matter when seeding is determined in April.

Lillard realizes there are zero nights off. It’s probably why he’s playing out of his mind early on, averaging 29.1 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game on 66 percent true shooting. Breaking down his shooting splits, he’s off to an incredible 56.3 percent efficiency from two, 40 percent clip from three, and 94 percent at the line. Which, by the way, might be the most underrated aspect of his early stretch. He’s getting to the line almost 12 times per 100 possessions, which would be a career-high by a landslide.

This isn’t hyperbole: Outside of Stephen Curry, there hasn’t been a better point guard in the league to start the season, or a more worthy MVP candidate from the West. While he isn’t shooting an unfathomable 51.3 percent on pull-up threes like Curry (he’s at 35.5 percent on four pull-up triples per game), Lillard still has to be treated the same way in crunch time:

When he instills a similar fear into the eyes of defenders closing out, he exhibits the same skill to attack the rim and finish with his craftiness:

Heading into Portland’s rematch with LeBron and the Lakers, Lillard is a very narrow third in Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (.317) behind Nikola Jokic (.318) and Curry (.326).

The conversation intertwining him and Kyrie Irving was always too close to call. But with Lillard showcasing his full offensive repertoire and leading Rip City through the West gauntlet, it’s becoming too hard to deny. He’s becoming Curry-lite, with an opportunity to avenge the most recent first round failure.

“Each year I come back, and I back it up time and time again,” Lillard said.

It’s true. Plus, we could all use another point guard MVP battle for the ages.