How the Ukraine War Reshaped Asia into a Geo-Political Nightmare
West needs to act fast on this
The west expected the whole world to denounce Russian aggression in Ukraine when it formed a coalition against it. The 21st century is supposed to be a time where wars are localized and scaled down. Many of us assumed the big wars, in which one section of the world squares off against another, were over.
It initially appeared that way. Russia was supported by only four countries: North Korea, Syria, Belarus, and Eritrea.
However, 47 nations abstained from the UN vote calling for Russia’s unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine. These countries are supposed to be regarded as not supporting either Russia or Ukraine.
The group was not uniformly distributed around the world. Most of the nations were in Asia, some were in Africa, and a few were in South America. These nations either had a strong working relationship with Russia or China or were located close to them.
As reported by the NYTimes, it is the whole group of 47 countries that have been responsible for Russia evading western sanctions. If they hadn’t supported Russia through trade, the Ukraine war would not have lasted as long as it has.
Even more puzzling is the fact that China, India and Pakistan, three countries that are unable to work together without thinking about a fight, have quietly stood up for Russia. They are all much more dependent on the west than they are on Russia.
Despite the high degree of differential in trade between the west and Russia, both countries, China and India quietly chose to support Russia. Neutral stance in the United Nations means nothing. It is a tacit support for Russia to continue business as usual. A snub to the west.
While it is not difficult to understand why China would take such a stance against the west, it is a little more difficult to understand why India would take the same position.
Part of the reason lies in Indian history books, while another part is hidden in Asia’s political map.
How did Russia manage to get China, Pakistan and India’s support
There is an extremely easy way to explain the relationship between these three countries. It is the following:
- India lost a war to China
- Pakistan lost four wars to India
- All three countries have territorial disputes dating back to India and Pakistan’s independence in August 1947.
A border dispute between China and India in 1962 escalated to a full-scale conflict between the countries for nearly a month. During the conflict, the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, requested the US administration led by President Kennedy to support the Indian troops. The request was rejected. The United States only offered non-combat assistance.
The Indian government quickly turned its attention towards the Soviet Union. “India and the USSR reached an agreement in August 1962 (before the Cuban Missile Crisis) for the immediate purchase of twelve MiG-21s as well as for Soviet technical assistance in the manufacture of these aircraft in India”.
According to Indian diplomat G. Parthasarathy, “only after we got nothing from the US did arms supplies from the Soviet Union to India commence.”
Three years later, the second India-Pakistan war broke out. It came to an end with a peace agreement brokered by none other than the Soviet Union. It is called the Tashkent Declaration. All those events are well covered in Indian history books. I read them over and over when I was in school. I have heard stories from my elders about that turbulent period.
That period when India repeatedly got into a fight with China and Pakistan has been etched into the Indian minds. People often keep reminding themselves that United States kept the distance during those wars, while the Soviet Union helped.
Successive Indian governments that assumed power after the India-China war took effort to build India’s relationship with the Soviet Union. And the ties are extremely visible in the Indian armed forces.
Russia exported US$22.8 billion in arms to India between 2011 and 2021, a 42.5 percent increase over the previous decade.
Since most of India’s weapons are bought from Russia, it relies heavily on the country for “force sustainment including spares, maintenance, and upgrades”. Most of this “equipment will remain operationally active in the Indian inventory for at least the next two decades”. In the event of a war, India will need Russia to keep supplying the spares.
I think the Indian government firmly believes that it cannot break its relationship with Russia, snap its finger and immediately replace Russian products with western products. And the net result was both China and India, moved in support of Russia. Since China was supporting Russia, the government in Pakistan did not have any other choice but to take a similar stance.
India: The Strategic Implication of Breaking Ties with Russia
China, has over the years, steadily ramped up its co-operation with Pakistan.
As you can see from the map above, India’s entire northern border is covered by Pakistan and China. A border with two countries that do not think of India as an ally.
Pakistan’s military establishment remains dependent on keeping India as an existential threat. This allows the Pak military to stay on top of the civilian government and take the lion’s share of the nation’s resources for its use. This is a country that was ruled by military dictators for most of the time since its independence in 1947. That must tell us the power the military wields over the civilian government.
Over the years, China has deepened its connection with Pakistan. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping declared their friendship does not have limits. Years before that, Pakistan and China declared that they have an all weather friendship.
To further tighten the economic and geo-strategic grip in the region, China announced a belt and road project that connects Beijing to Gwadar Port in Pakistan. It will allow China to access the Arabian sea through land. This location is extremely strategic because it will allow China to keep a close eye on the gulf through which the world’s most of the crude oil flows.
China’s belt and road initiative, “a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations,” is a huge strategic threat to India as it envelops the country in three directions.
The future of China and India’s relationship is going to be a difficult one, said Raymond Vickery, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At a regular Indian Foreign Office news briefing in August, the spokesperson affirmed that India’s policies are “consistent” and “do not require reiteration,” when asked about Delhi’s approach to the “One China” policy.
“In addition, there’s a whole Belt and Road Initiative, which is designed really to give China control over the Indo-Pacific eventually,” Vickery said.
India will remain fearful of allowing the China-Pakistan coalition to evolve into a China-Pakistan-Russia coalition. If India makes a clean break from Russia today, they assume that this coalition will bring down a lot of weight to bear on its highly porous and difficult to defend northern border.
But the problem I see here is, it is going to happen anyway. The Ukraine war has reduced Russia into a miniature version of its former self. Russia will never be able to regain its former glory. The amount of brain drain Russia has already suffered, losing a potential one million men to the war and another million who fled the country to escape conscription will forcefully shrink the Russian economy over the next decade.
More than the lost oil and gas revenue, I think the talent drain is going to hurt Russia. Putin has made Russia extremely dependent on China. The Russia in the next decade will be powerless to even lodge it’s grievance in Beijing. In case a war between China and India breaks out, Russia will do exactly what India did now, assume a neutral stance.
Will they be able to supply those spares India will badly need in a war? I doubt that very much. The global geo-political alignment has been irrevocably changed because of the Ukraine war. Some of the relationships are still holding because rupturing them will create an upheaval.
Why India should look to the west
An axis of chaos has already developed in the eastern world. Iran-Russia-China-Pakistan-North Korea. This is a formidable alliance that if left unchecked will have huge ramifications for democracies around the world and global peace.
Now the entire group knows, thanks to Russia, that sanctions can be evaded with some careful planning, savings and workarounds. Any rally against the west in the future may bring this group together in its support. Their support will weaken the western objectives.
India can be an excellent counterweight to this alliance if it can tighten its economic and military cooperation with South Korea, Australia and Japan.
It will be a divided Asia, but it is already divided anyway.
India can keep the geo-political balance in Asia from tipping in favor of the axis of chaos. But they are still stuck in their deep rooted suspicion of the west.
I don’t think India sees the writing on the wall. They are desperately trying to resurrect Russia in order to balance China. But Putin has already pushed the country way too deep into an economic mess that it will never be able to recover from.
So the one thing they fear, a Russia-Pakistan-China coalition exerting pressure on their northern border is going to happen anyway. If China wants to get that done, there is nothing that Russia can do anymore to pull them back.
Russia is currently a junior partner to China. It could very soon become a vassal for China. Unless India understands this, it will create a long term problem for itself as well as the world.
