Can trade between Israel and the Gulf countries bring Peace
Israel & the Gulf Countries, are undergoing a discreet warming of relations at the Government level, as the Gulf states are not threatened directly by Israel and share a common enemy in Iran. The question remains whether without a peace deal with the Palestinians, this quiet warming of ties can lead to the normalization of relations between Israel and the Sunni Arab Gulf states, and the resultant increase in trade and tourism.
Israel has had a complicated relationship with its middle east neighbors since it’s creation. Though the Arab Gulf states have never formally fought Israel, their sympathies have typically been with their fellow Arab states. Yet, in the age where the Shiite-Sunni Conflict is increasingly dominant, there is a quiet realization that Israel, which is recognized by all to be the region’s military super-power, and the only middle east military armed with nuclear weapons — is a deterrent to Iranian expansionism. So there is an alliance of convenience between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC countries that share in Iran a common enemy.
In 2018, Bibi Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, visited Oman. Israel’s PM was warmly received by Sultan Qaboos and the visit was broadcast on Oman’s State Television. In June of 2019 Israeli Minister Israel Katz visited the United Arab Emirates and a month later, in July 2019 he held open discussions with Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa of Bahrain in Washington DC. These events would have been unimaginable even a decade ago. Still, it remains to be seen whether normalization of ties can occur, absent some sort of peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians.
Still, relations are clearly warming on a public level and perhaps now is the right moment in time for private enterprise to forge commercial ties between the countries. According to the Tony Blair Institute ‘the potential for indirect exports to the large GCC markets and Iraq (even if Israel’s potential share of them is conservatively estimated at just 2–3% of their total imports of goods and services) under normal trading conditions, that would amount to $15 billion to $25 billion.
The Arab countries could greatly benefit from Israeli technology in the field of water technologies, agriculture know-how for arid climates and more. Israel could surely benefit from having new trading partners, new markets for their products, and potentially new investors for promising Israeli start-ups.
