Sanders’ Comeback: Hillary’s Pledged Delegate Lead Erodes by Over 1/3 with Over 2/5 of Pledged Delegates Still Up for Grabs
Can Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination? If so, what would the breakdown for upcoming primaries and caucuses need to look like?
I’ve been tracking delegate totals for both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. I noticed something peculiar: Democrats Abroad is not being counted in all of the totals being shown for them.
While the totals everywhere are pretty much saying Hillary has 1280 and Bernie has 1030, it’s actually 1282 and 1041 when you factor in the Democrats Abroad delegates. Adding in WA delegates, it’s 1300 to 1090 or a difference of 210.
For those who factor in super delegates when getting to the magic 2383 — this is 100% wrong. Those do not count unless they vote at DNC this summer. There has only been one instance where super delegates actually voted: in 1984. Even when they did vote in 1984, it did not change who the nominee was.
Here’s some food for thought on super delegates: In 2008, Bill Clinton switched his own support to Obama. He has also confirmed that he would do the same with Bernie should he win the vote going into DNC.
Furthermore, even fivethirtyeight.com puts the total count needed for pledged delegates at 2026 rather than 2383.
There are currently 1661 pledged delegates left in the remaining primaries/caucuses. There’s no way Hillary can win the nomination before convention. Mathematically it’s impossible — she’d need 2/3 of all remaining delegates. She has 1300 delegates and would need 2383 before convention. This means 1083 delegates for her out of 1661 available. There’s no possible way for this to happen.
When Hillary withdrew in 2008, there was only a 100 delegate difference between her and Obama. As the calendar moved closer to DNC, more and more super delegates had switched to Obama and by the time she suspended her campaign he had the majority.
All of this means is that Bernie would need to have 50%+1 as minimum of pledged delegates at some point. I’d like to believe that if that happens, super delegates would be responsive.
Looking at math further,
Hillary 1300
Bernie 1090
1300+x+1=1090+1661-x
1301+x=2751-x
1301–2751= -2x
1450=2x
x=725
1661–725=936
Bernie needs to win 936 of the remaining 1661 delegates or 56.35%. This is an average of 12.7% spread.
The question becomes is this possible? If we took a snapshot of the situation based on current polls, realistically, no. But he has a huge amount of momentum on his side.
Let’s look at the momentum and facts:
- Bernie has won 6 out of the last 7 states. The one he didn’t win (Arizona) has questionable results.
- According to FiveThirtyEight.com Bernie started off March tracking at 84% of what he needed and finished the month at 92%. Wisconsin dropped this to 93%.
- Hillary’s lead in pledged delegates peaked in Arizona at 324. It’s now been eroded to 210 or by over one-third.
- Although based on current polls, he is not tracking to get the delegates needed. However, based on what we’ve seen so far, he is closing the gap on polls at a rapid pace. If he simply continues to do what he’s done so far, he should get there.
Will this be enough to get the support at DNC? I’m not so sure. The establishment is behind Hillary solidly so far. What could work in his favor is if at upcoming district/county/state caucuses, Hillary delegates fail to appear like what happened in Nevada.
What I do know is that Bernie Sanders is still a horse in the race and the numbers prove it.
