BJP’s Mission 50% plus takes a step forward
Back in 2015 after the Delhi sweep by AAP I had first formulated why the BJP needed to break free from being a 30%+ vote share party to a 45–50% plus vote share party to consolidate on its 2014 win.
What the BJP however needs to confront is the steep challenge for it to go from a 30%+ vote share party to a 45–50%+ vote share party on a consistent basis.
The subsequent loss of BJP in Bihar further validated this formulation.
Further expanding on what this Mission 50% plus ought to mean
The Mission for 272+ saw the Narendra Modi led BJP form the first single party majority non-Congress government in India.
Will the Mission for 50%+ built on the foundation of growing and large Neo-Middle Class get us a multi-decadal Constitutional Majority for the BJP across both the Center and key States?
Delhi drubbing may be a blessing in disguise for the BJP to shift the Overton Window on its ability to appeal to a plurality of Indians with this new Mission for 50% plus.
Today’s Assam win that saw the BJP+ alliance garner close to 50% vote share to breach the eastern frontier and deprive the Congress of last of few states in its kitty, is a baby step in the direction towards this Mission.
The modest performance in Bengal and Kerala is a reminder that unless it can appeal to a plurality voters, it will be a long road for BJP to breach these remaining frontiers. The path to breaching these and other remaining states lies in the BJP getting localised in its messaging and absorbing the vote base of regional non-congress players as happened in Karnataka in post Hegde era and now in Assam by absorbing the AGP’s one time leadership and base.
The 2016 Assam win sets the tone for the 2nd year milestone of the Narendra Modi government and shows the way on how Mission 50% plus will have to be executed in other states.