“To be human is to live suspended between danger and opportunity,” according to eminent physicist Lee Smolin, of the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Waterloo, Ontario. The statement — made by Smolin in one of his more recent books — is perhaps a fitting description as well for where our Canadian economy stands today. We are at a crossroads. Although the energy industry accounts (directly) for no more than 10% of Canada’s GDP, our shrinking dollar is clearly a reflection of the declining value of oil (and other commodities).

It’s true that the petroleum market is frequently subject to boom and bust cycles, but this time feels different. The recent Paris climate agreement, although nothing resembling the “silver bullet” some were hoping for, has nevertheless committed countries around the world to an ambitious program for decarbonizing the global economy. And just as the U.S. — due in large part to its ramped-up shale oil production — was being hailed as the world’s top oil producer, the intergovernmental cartel of producers known as OPEC charted a course for regaining market share from American and other high cost oil producers.

While the last oil boom obviously impacted Canada’s economy in a positive way, this country hasn’t always been perceived as a petro-state. Prior to the nearly ten-year tenure of the previous government, Canada’s historically lower dollar — against the American greenback — had benefited Canadian manufacturers (although not, necessarily, Canadian shoppers), promoting exportation of an abundance of diverse products not only to the United States, but also around the world. Unfortunately, some of that momentum has been lost.

Take, for example, Canada’s automobile manufacturing hub: Ontario. A considerable amount of the province’s business in this well-established sector has recently relocated to Mexico. But the problem isn’t just that we are losing valuable auto jobs to countries with lower labour costs. The push to electrify transportation is creating a new auto industry with a more nebulous centre of gravity; BMW’s new carbon fibre plant is located, for example, in Moses Lake, Washington, while Tesla’s first gigafactory will open later this year outside Reno, Nevada.

Nevada, heavily dependent on gambling revenue, was hit hard by the 2008 global financial crisis. In its wake, the state’s leadership began looking for ways to diversify the economy. Strong incentives were offered to lure Tesla’s hefty investment. This past December, Chinese billionaire-backed Faraday Future announced it intends to build its own electric car factory downstate from Tesla’s. Attracting these businesses of the future is seen by many of Nevada’s stakeholders as the key to transforming the state into a hub for international economic development.

Are there lessons to be learned from Nevada’s journey? To begin with, the state’s governor, Brian Sandoval, is a Republican. On his watch, a region generally known for its libertarian conservatism has not only jumped at the chance to accommodate new clean technologies, but has also seen fit to offer incentives to such businesses. The approach hasn’t always worked out perfectly for all concerned, but still — one can’t help but wonder how many leaders in other (traditionally) conservative jurisdictions are paying attention! For if a state like Nevada can transform its economy by incentivizing business, why can’t places elsewhere? And moreover, why wouldn’t they? As climate scientists have been telling us all along, time isn’t exactly on our side here.

Incentives are also the key, according to philanthropist and tech billionaire Bill Gates, to a successful transition to low carbon technologies. Recently Gates explained his belief that only a price on carbon will spur change. Meanwhile Gates himself is investing two billion dollars over the next five years in clean-tech research and development.

Over the past ten years, there have been several well-intentioned, but ultimately unsuccessful attempts to “green” particular economies. Unfortunately, taxpayer funded investments have not always led to actual economic development, and in some cases, expensive mistakes have been made. Economist and best-selling author Jeremy Rifkin (president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, DC.), has noted that several past “green” ventures failed because they consisted of a “collection of pilot projects and siloed programs” and “didn’t tell a compelling story of a new economic vision for the world.”

Is that vision now coming into focus? With their fast-growing economies, China and India may ultimately determine how the COP21 Paris climate deal plays out. In those countries, the relationship between human activities and the climate is clear, even if the skies are often not. The Chinese know all too well what happens when coal power “rules” and cities are overrun with gasoline-fueled automobiles; a documentary on the subject of the country’s growing pollution problem (entitled “Under the Dome”) quickly went viral there. Not surprisingly, China now appears to be preparing for a new energy paradigm, a paradigm that is not based on fossil fuels.

So what could this mean for Canada?

In Canada, too, things are changing. We have a new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, whose energetic, enthusiastic approach to leading is currently impressing people (within and beyond our country’s borders) on both the right and left sides of the political spectrum. In Paris, our new Environment and Climate Change Minister, Catherine McKenna, pushed for an agreement based on a 1.5C temperature rise. It represents a far safer “ceiling” than the globally favoured 2C limit; few other developed countries, however, were willing to endorse it.

Our country is presently home to leaders/companies that are involved in the development of compressed air energy storage, energy management software, fusion energy technologies, geothermal power, hydrogen fuel cells (particularly in British Columbia, my home province, and also in Ontario, Alberta and Québec), as well as “solar tracking” technology, wind power deployment and more. Canada also has architects and developers who are knowledgeable in the design and construction of “super energy efficient” homes and buildings. (It was in Saskatchewan, after all, that the world’s first original “Passive House” was built.)

The Solar and Battery Revolutions

Back in 2014, Tesla’s Elon Musk noted: “there’s going to need to be hundreds of gigafactories.” Keeping in mind that the batteries that power electric cars require lithium, it’s easy to make the connection between Nevada’s success in attracting companies in the lithium supply chain and the fact that the state is home to North America’s only producing lithium mine.

Some may be surprised to learn that the province of Alberta has lithium brine deposits that are considered equal to Nevada’s. And since increased global demand has driven up prices for the material as well, production from previously undeveloped deposits may soon become economically feasible. Two Canadian companies have in fact already announced they have applied for permits to develop this resource, from deposits located northwest of Edmonton. Now, just as many global car companies are announcing plans to launch mass-market electric vehicles, Tesla has begun marketing its new “Powerwall” battery, to be used in conjunction with a home’s renewable energy system. The company is also offering a commercial utility scale battery pack. As Musk says, there will likely be a lot more gigafactories in the future.

Well-paying solar jobs are also expanding down south, so much so that there are now more Americans employed in the solar industry than in coal mining. But this is mostly on the installation side. What about in manufacturing? It turns out that six out of the top ten global panel manufacturers are in China. And as has already been noted, countries like China are well aware of their need to deploy an abundance of clean energy in order to prevent catastrophic climate change. Meanwhile manufacturing of solar panels in the U.S. is picking up speed as well. But does this mean we in Canada are destined to rely mostly on imports to change our energy infrastructure? After all, petroleum is found in a lot of countries. Is it fair for any one country or continent to corner the market on such an essential part of our global energy shift?

Solar technology is evolving, just like everything else. The next big thing may well be a new player - perovskites (materials with a unique crystal structure), which can be made cheaply, from earth-abundant materials, at low temperatures. These materials could possibly boost the efficiency rating of panels to a level that has so far only been demonstrated by some of the first and second-generation technologies. Moreover, panels made from them can be more easily clad onto buildings, due to their relatively lighter weight. This characteristic of perovskites may also facilitate their use in new applications, such as small consumer electronics. Some Canadians already have their finger on the pulse of perovskites, which have been called the biggest solar breakthrough in 60 years!

One of them is University of Toronto researcher Dr. Riccardo Comin, who won a $20,000 prize last year for his work in this field. I reached out to Comin about these materials; he believes that while the “technology is not yet mature to be scaled up at this stage,” research now occurring in Canadian institutions (with regard to emerging technologies) has positioned our country as “one of the world leaders in this booming field.”

One drawback with the perovskites that have been produced so far is the fact that the metal lead is needed to achieve the remarkable rates in efficiency. Although technology exists to seal in the lead to prevent it from leaching out, some commentators believe perovskite panels made with lead may be most suitable for utility grade applications. Comin says the “amount of lead in perovskite solar cells is very small,” so he doesn’t think it poses a serious concern, since “encapsulation strategies can be developed to alleviate this issue.” Recycled lead can also be used. Still, he acknowledges alternatives are already being sought.

One such possibility I asked Comin about is the metal bismuth. Bismuth has similar properties to lead but is non-toxic. (Canada, incidentally, is #4 in global bismuth production.) Comin states this is indeed a “research direction holding a great potential.” And his group has already “dedicated efforts” on this, seeking alternatives to lead that “don’t compromise on performance.” This work is ongoing.

One past issue with bismuth is the fact that it has often been mined with lead (the metal itself being a by-product of mining either copper, lead, or tin); demand for bismuth has thus resulted in an actual increase in lead production. However, this effect can be avoided and/or offset, either by developing new mines that don’t produce lead, or by using circular approaches that include the incorporation of upcycled/recycled content.

In any case, while the global effort to advance perovskites continues, we can be proud of the fact that Canada is a strong participant in the race. Dr. Comin ended our conversation on a very inspiring note, saying: “Stay tuned for more discoveries from U of T! It’s been a rollercoaster ride so far and we don’t plan to stop anytime soon!”

Of course, nothing is stopping us from supporting companies here in Canada that are currently installing and servicing the highly efficient solar technology available today (some of which may in fact be Canadian-made); the costs, after all, have dropped substantially in the last ten years. We are already off to a great start on some fronts. One Vancouver-based solar installation company noted they installed more solar in 2015 than in the previous ten years combined.

Globally, investment is on the up and up. Canada can and will be a leader. Indeed, as Toronto-based clean-tech expert Tom Rand recently told GreenPAC: “If Canada gets just 2% of the clean energy market, our clean energy sector would be as big as our automobile sector. Two percent is what we should get for just showing up, I think that’s the minimum we should be thinking about. If we think about our universities, our research, the ability to raise capital, our expertise in energy — even though it is ‘old school’ energy, there is no reason we can’t get a much bigger piece of that pie.”

There are good reasons for hope, since many exciting opportunities are awaiting us right here in Canada. But in order to take advantage of them, we must be ready ourselves for the changes to come. That is sometimes the hardest thing of all. For as the late Peter Drucker, a respected business adviser and author once said: “In times of turmoil, the danger lies not in the turmoil, but in facing it with yesterday’s logic.”