
Trump is not invincible in a Republican Senate
Of the Senate’s 53 Republicans, 36 Senators have political, principled, and personal reasons to consider Trump’s guilt. The possibility alone can improve America’s broken debate.
Is there any chance a Republican Senate will remove Donald Trump from office? The Constitution requires two-thirds of the Senate to convict him — meaning 20 Republican Senators must find Trump guilty (along with all 45 Democrats and 2 independents.) This seems impossible in a process that has been partisan to date: not one Republican Congressperson voted to allow formal impeachment proceedings, the President is tweeting about “coups” and “CIVIL WAR”, and polls show fierce partisanship on both sides. Trump’s removal is unlikely but it’s possible for two reasons:
- Senators are responsive to the overall public opinion in a state, not the concentrated opinion of gerrymandered Congressional districts.
- Senators not running for re-election in 2020 or retiring may vote in response to the evidence.
There are, in fact, over 30 Republican Senators who could have political, principled, or personal reasons to remove Trump from office. This possibility is a good thing for the country, whether you are pro Trump or not. It should shift the conversation from loud partisans who threaten to blow up the Republic, and focus on Senators who must listen to the evidence and engage moderate voters. While Trump’s removal is a long-shot, the bigger opportunity is to shift the impeachment debate from partisans who re-Tweet to thoughtful citizens who listen. Patriots on all sides must seize it.
Note: These conclusions are meant to be directional. State level polling is hard to find, especially for free. This analysis depends on Morning Consult’s polling in September of 2019. They call 5,000 registered voters every day and publish a monthly net-approval score by state. FiveThirtyEight gives this poll a B- with a 2.7 percent margin of error and a 0.6 percent Democratic bias. Net approval for Trump, of course, does not equal support for impeachment or removal. But it’s the closest state-level poll that uses the same methodology for all 50 states.
Public opinion — 29 Senators
Senators, like all elected officials, have to consider their constituents’ views. While the media portrays the country as divided into red and blue states, there are 29 Republican Senators who may feel public pressure to consider Trump’s removal with gravitas — not partisanship. According to Morning Consult, 17 Republican Senators are in states where Trump’s approval rating is negative including 5 where Trump’s net approval is below -10%. Another 12 Republican Senators are in states where Trump’s net approval is just+1% or +2% … that’s within Morning Consult’s margin of error.
In such states, if a Senator blindly attacks the investigation to fire up the base, they will lose the necessary middle. The Senators are much better served approaching the process with an even temper, later arguing they are fair-minded statesmen who respected a constitutional process.
As the facts emerge from the now public House proceedings and the future Senate trial, these Senators — particularly the 10 running for re-election in 2020 — will have to closely engage with public opinion. At first glance, they are in a tough political position. If they simply ignore a majority of their voters, they risk losing a future general election. If they vote against Trump, of course, they will produce a primary challenger fueled by MAGA wrath.
But these Senators have more leverage than Trump would like to admit. These are states where a raging MAGA candidate can win a primary, but not the general election. If MAGA challengers defeated incumbent Republicans in states like Colorado or Maine, they would effectively help Democrats re-take the Senate. On the flip side, if these Senators voted to quickly remove Trump in December, they would have 11 months to rally behind President Pence and get re-elected. This is why, if state level polling further shifts against Trump, Mitch McConnell himself may break with the president.
Principles and personal ambition — 7 Senators
If the facts show Trump is guilty, there are 7 Republican Senators who have the luxury to convict Trump on principle and also serve their personal ambitions.
Three are retiring in 2020: Pat Roberts, Lamar Alexander, and Mike Enzi. Though they represent firmly MAGA states, they are free to vote on the evidence. They have one eye on Trump’s Twitter feed and the other mistier eye on their personal legacy. If the facts are against Trump, they may consider sacrificing their near-term standing at home to build a heroic reputation for posterity. In a post-Trump world, their principled opposition could also catapult them into the kinds of positions Senators probably want in late life: university appointments, corporate boards, speaking gigs about ethical leadership, etc. This is their Profiles in Courage moment.
Another four Republican Senators are in a different position where principles and personal ambition could also trump Trump: they are not running for re-election until 2022 or 2024 — and are in states where Trump’s net approval is under 5 percent. If the evidence shows Trump is overwhelmingly guilty, they could vote to remove Trump and spend 3 to 5 years re-building in a post-Trump world without MAGA primary challenges.
Why even consider this risk? The calculation is if Trump has permanently re-made the Republican party in his image — or if Trump was simply a transition, a forest fire to clear the deadwood for a greater person (like themselves) to do something bigger. Josh Hawley, the Ivy-League intellectual who went full-Trump to get elected in 2018, is the natural contender here. Could Josh see himself as the Reagan to Trump’s Nixon?
Conservatives agree…
How does this analysis, finding 36 Republican Senators could vote to remove Trump, square with what Republicans themselves are saying? Long time Republican political operative Mike Murphy says, “one Republican senator told me if it was a secret vote, 30 Republican senators would vote to impeach Trump.” The right-wing website Daily Caller, founded by Trump ally Tucker Carlson, found only 7 of 53 Republican Senators would rule out removing Trump. William Weld, challenging Trump for the Republican nomination, says, “My sense more broadly, being on the hustings, is everyone’s exhausted by Trump. They’re very tired and so they really don’t want to be forced to wallow in Trump. They’d rather think about healthcare and other issues that have more to do with their daily lives.” As a Congressional staffer in 1970, Weld helped write the House judiciary committee’s memo titled “Constitutional Grounds for Impeachment.”
What it means
The fact that 36 Republican Senators, whether for politics or principle or personal ambition, might vote to remove Trump means a few things:
- It weakens the argument that “the House should impeach Trump, the Senate quickly find him not guilty, and then we move on to issues like health care.” If Trump’s removal in the Senate is a possibility, it requires a careful, deliberate Senate trial.
- It suggests approaching each of the 7 Senators with personal ambitions in personal ways. The billionaire Tom Steyer, for example, could start planning the Pat Roberts Institute for Economics at Kansas State University, the Lamar Alexander Professor of Education at Vanderbilt, and the Mike Enzi Center for Workforce Development in Wyoming. Do the right thing and leave a positive legacy in your state. For the younger Senators, grassroots movements could dangle a post-Trump political opportunity. Imagine if they saw large, national email lists of young conservatives ready to support a principled vote to remove Trump, and then lead the movement with more integrity.
- It requires careful state-level polling in the 18 pro-impeachment states with Republican Senators. It should ask about Trump’s approval, impeachment, and removal. It should also quiz respondents for what facts they know and what sources they use — mapping a voters’ perceived reality to their position. We need more of this anyways for the primaries and general election.
- It requires polling one very dark issue: Trump’s threats of civil war if he’s removed. The nation needs to know who supports this, how does support for violence differ by state, congressional district, demographic group, education level, etc.? This call to violence needs to map to the Congressperson, local government, local media, religious groups, civic organizations, and others who shape opinions. This is a failure in American leadership and values.
- It requires more nuanced public relations in these 18 states. Whether Trump or his critics prevail, each side will need to persuade middle voters. This middle has been less influenced by partisan warfare, and more independent in their thinking. How will the facts reach these voters and what will they expect their Republican Senator to do? Who are these middle voters and who influences their thinking?
The questions to the middle voters, in particular, offer some hope in dark times. The independent middle voters offer a chance to improve the national conversation about Trump.
Today, only 26 percent of Americans identify as Republican and 29 percent identify as Democrat. But 43 percent identify as independent. Whether these middle voters end up supporting or opposing Trump’s removal, the hope is they demand a fair trial that considers the evidence for what it is.
Trump’s removal is highly unlikely — but its possibility can change the tone of today’s debate. It can diminish the power of Twitter and increase the power of deliberative, factual debate. The middle’s expectations of fairness could force the politics of Trump’s America, possibly at the end of his Presidency, to become principled.
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Background
Bold = running for re-election in 2020
17 Republican Senators live in states where Trump’s net approval rating is negative — 6 of them are running for reelection:
- Cory Gardner (R — Colorado, -15%)
- Joni Ernst (Iowa, -14%)
- Chuck Grassley (Iowa, -14%)
- Susan Collins (Maine, -13%)
- Ron Johnson (Wisconsin, -11%)
- Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania, -8%)
- Rob Portman (Ohio, -5%)
- Martha McSally (Arizona, -4%)
- Thom Tillis (North Carolina, -3%)
- Richard Burr (North Carolina, -3%)
- Steve Daines (Montana, -3%)
- Mitt Romney (Utah, -3%)
- Mike Lee (Utah, -3%)
- Ben Sasse (Nebraska, -2%)
- Deb Fischer (Nebraska, -2%)
- Rick Scott (Florida, -2%)
- Marco Rubio (Florida, -2%)
12 Republican Senators are in states where Trump’s net approval rating is under 3 points — and 4 are running for re-election
- Mike Rounds (South Dakota, +1%)
- John Thune (South Dakota, +1%)
- Kevin Cramer (North Dakota, +1%)
- John Hoeven (North Dakota, +1%)
- David Perdue (Georgia, +1%)
- Johnny Isakson (Georgia, +1%)
- Dan Sullivan (Alaska, +1%)
- Lisa Murkowski (Alaska, +1%)
- Ted Cruz (Texas, +2%)
- John Cornyn (Texas, +2%)
- Mike Braun (Indiana, +2%)
- Todd Young (Indiana, +2%)
3 Republican Senators are retiring
- Pat Roberts (Kansas, +4%)
- Lamar Alexander (Tennessee, +13%)
- Mike Enzi (Wyoming, +16%)
4 Republican Senators are not running for re-election, and live in states where Trump’s popular — but net approval is less than 5points.
- Jerry Moran (Kansas, +4%, 2022)
- John Boozman (Arkansas, +4%, 2022)
- Josh Hawley (Missouri, +5%, 2024)
- Roy Blunt (Missouri, +5%, 2022)
