It’s getting to that time of year again; public All-Star voting begins on Wednesday, and with that comes the inevitable debates over who should be the leading vote-getter at each position, who’s getting snubbed and why. Like every MLB season, there have been a lot of surprise breakout players and plenty of fan favorites who have underperformed, and with this piece I hope to properly account for those factors and paint a fairly accurate picture of what the final rosters will be a month from now. Given the amount of analysis I’m going to go through with both the AL and NL rosters, I have decided to split this into two smaller pieces, one for each league.
Edit: the second of two pieces can be found here.
American League Position Players
I think the American League has quite a few contentious positions that could change hands over the next month, but as things stand right now I think the following players will receive All-Star honors when the votes are tallied.
First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
While I view Ty France of the Seattle Mariners as the more deserving All-Star at this point in the season with his .326/.401/.482 slash line and Gold Glove-caliber defense, I believe this will be a repeat All-Star nod for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero has the name recognition and fan-favorite status that will play massively in his favor during public voting while also being on a currently contending club. Guerrero’s numbers have also been quietly great; while some view this season as a disappointment after last year’s 1.002 OPS effort, he still carries an OPS+ of 139 to go with 13 home runs and 30 RBI, putting him on a similar power pace to last year’s breakout campaign. A hot month in June will put away any doubt for me, and he will win this spot comfortably if so. Anthony Rizzo of the New York Yankees will also win a fair amount of votes due to his hot start as part of the current best team in baseball, but I do not expect him to make this a close race as of now.
Second base: José Altuve, Houston Astros
This one seems to be pretty cut and dry to me. Gleyber Torres of the Yankees is in the midst of a resurgent campaign as part of the AL East juggernaut’s middle infield, coming closer to his breakout 2019 campaign than any season since, coming up with clutch hits in big spots and playing stellar defense, but Altuve has simply been better on a team with similar postseason odds. Altuve’s .280/.354/.535 slash line wipes the floor with Torres’ .247/.286/.476, making for an OPS+ nearly 40 points higher (156 to 118). It’s yet another season of Altuve being a premier second baseman for one of the perennial best teams in baseball, and this is an easy All-Star nod for the former MVP. Trevor Story of the Boston Red Sox is beginning to get things going after a disappointing first month, but it may be too late to unseat Altuve.
Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
This is another easy choice for me. Bogaerts, who is expected to opt out of his contract and test the waters of free agency this offseason, is putting together a career year and is poised to receive a handsome payday this winter. Chicago White Sox star Tim Anderson has been the better player in the time that he has played, but is currently in the midst of a long stint on the injured list and is expected to miss most of June. This will affect his counting stats vs. Bogaerts’ as we get closer to the All-Star voting deadline, and I think the slowly-improving Red Sox will continue to increase their standing while the injury-riddled White Sox’s disappointing start to the season will take away from Anderson’s already hampered case. Both players received all-star nods last year and I expect Anderson to be the runner-up and reserve for Bogaerts.
Third base: José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
Ramírez, a perennial top 10 player in baseball, will receive another well-deserved All-Star spot this season. Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers, a contender for this season’s batting title, will be his closest competition and may steal the spot if he has a hotter month of June but if voting were to end today my vote would go to Ramírez and I would expect the public to vote similarly. Ramírez currently leads all of Major League Baseball in runs batted in which will give him favor with more traditional voters that value counting stats to go with a superior OPS to Devers’.
Devers currently leads the American League in bWAR with 2.9 and is second to the Yankees’ Aaron Judge with 3.2 fWAR, but Ramírez is right on his heels with 2.7 and 3.1 respectively in six fewer games played. These two could both be top 5 MVP finishers this season, and I expect this to be a close All-Star race that may come down to the final week but ultimately should go to Ramírez.
Catcher: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
This is a very clear choice to me, even with Kirk’s relative inexperience and lack of name recognition to casual fans. Kirk has been, by a considerable distance, the best offensive catcher in the American League in the absence of the Jays’ #1 backstop Danny Jansen and has forced himself into an everyday role between catcher and DH. His .306/.389/.465 line and 148 OPS+ put him comfortably ahead of any other catcher in the American League while being one of the few who has played enough games to qualify among the league leaders in rate statistics.
He’s also great behind the dish, sitting in the 91st percentile of all catchers in pitch framing for this season. Combining his undeniable statline and breakout status on a contending team with the fervor of the Toronto fanbase in online polls of this nature, and Kirk should be an easy pick for an All-Star nod in his first full season. I expect the reserve for his spot to be the Yankees’ Jose Trevino given his current hot streak and emergence as a new fan favorite, or the Twins’ Gary Sanchez if he has a strong June. A spot could also be given to Royals fan favorite Salvador Pérez off the strength of his historic 2021 campaign, despite his lackluster start to this season.
Outfield: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
Judge and Trout are perhaps the two most easily predictable names you’ll find on this entire list. Judge has been the best player in baseball this season bar none, and is leading a historically-good Yankees team in the chase for their 28th World Series ring during his contract year. At 30 years old with a history of injuries, Judge was not the most attractive impending free agent on paper before this season, but his performance has been undeniable and barring any disaster he should receive his first Most Valuable Player award this fall. I expect Judge to be one of the top vote-getters among all players.
Trout is, well, Mike Trout. He’s one of the finest players of the 21st century and perhaps one of the most gifted we’ve ever seen. Trout has never missed the All-Star game in his storied career, and I don’t expect that to change now when he has been his usual self, putting up a .957 OPS through the first two months on a second-place Angels team.
The real surprise of this bunch is Trout’s outfield partner Taylor Ward, a breakout star who would currently hold the highest OPS and OPS+ in Major League Baseball if he had enough plate appearances, which is where Ward just barely falls short. Still, his performance and importance to this Angels team has been undeniable and he’s put up 2.3 bWAR/2.4fWAR in a mere 38 games and 158 plate appearances. Ward, who has played parts of five major league seasons and accrued less than two years of service time, has finally forced himself into a bigger role and will be rewarded for it with his first All-Star selection, edging out Astros star Kyle Tucker for the final slot. Expect the Royals’ impending free agent (and likely trade candidate) Andrew Benintendi to be another name in the mix as a possible reserve alongside Tucker or even a starter if Ward tapers off in the next few weeks.
Designated hitter: Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros
This is a more contentious category than I initially thought it would be, given that the Red Sox’ J. D. Martinez is currently tied for the best batting average in MLB at .358 in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, but I believe that this is the season where the 24-year-old Yordan Álvarez receives his first All-Star placement over Martinez. Martinez has quietly been one of the most terrifying hitters in baseball for the better part of a decade now and is coming off three straight All-Star appearances with the appropriate numbers for a fourth, but Yordan has been even better while contributing to a contending team in Houston. Álvarez’ sweet left-handed swing has produced the third-highest slugging percentage in the American League this season (.610) and the second most home runs (16). Just this week, the Astros put their faith in Álvarez as a central player to the franchise with a six-year, $115 million extension, and I expect voters to have similar faith in him and reward his massive production with a well-earned spot in the American League’s starting lineup.
The argument for an All-Star roster utility role: Luis Arráez, IF/OF/DH, Minnesota Twins
Luis Arráez is likely going to be shafted on this year’s All-Star vote, and that just is not fair to me. Arráez, a lefty contact-oriented hitter, is the current MLB leader in batting average (.358, shared with J.D. Martinez) and on-base percentage (.447). Even with Arráez’s minimal power, he’s had one of the hottest bats in baseball and leads a surprising Twins offense with an OPS+ of 157 as they sit atop the AL Central. Arráez has split time between first base, second base, third base and designated hitter already this season, and also played a fair amount of left field last year. As a utility man with an everyday role, he doesn’t fit neatly into any one position on the All-Star roster, and it’s players like him who warrant a utility player vote so that they may be recognized for their talents. The 25-year-old Arráez is one of the best pure contact hitters to emerge in recent years and should be in the mix to win the batting title as he improves both his raw balls-in-play skills and plate discipline.
American League Pitchers
As of this year, pitchers are still not voted on by the general public and are hand-picked by their peers, coaches and managers. Therefore, public opinion matters less here than it would for position players, but I do believe it still plays a role based on the narratives and circumstances surrounding each player.
Starting pitching is an extremely stacked category this year, as it usually is, and there will be several brilliant pitchers who will barely miss the cut. I will get to those in due time, but first, the eight pitchers who I believe will be selected by voters as of right now:
Starters: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels; Nestor Cortés Jr. , New York Yankees; Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees; Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays; Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays; Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays; Martín Pérez, Texas Rangers; Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Ohtani’s stats alone are not necessarily worthy of an All-Star nod over quite a few other players if viewed in the context of one-way athletes, but he has been good enough in his everyday two-way role that I expect him to be a perennial all-star for the rest of his career based on popularity and general skillset alone. He currently sports a 3.99 ERA in only 9 starts, marred by two poor starts against the Rangers and Yankees, but otherwise looks to be an improved pitcher from last year based on his masterful performances against Boston and Houston on the road. His bat has been decent enough and contributes positively to the Angels’ lineup, but he is not the slam-dunk MVP that he was last year barring a second half offensive surge. Still, he will be an All-Star for the second year running.
Nestor Cortés and Martín Pérez are two cases that speak for themselves; unlikely ace production for each of their respective clubs. Cortés showed signs of his dominance in a hybrid long relief/part time rotation member role for the Yankees last season and has proven he isn’t going anywhere, currently sporting a major league-leading 1.50 ERA through his first 10 starts and a WHIP of 0.87 on his way to becoming perhaps the most universally loved New York Yankee of a generation outside the Bronx. His unorthodox mechanics and improved arsenal have proven to be unhittable for most major leaguers and I expect him to be a Cy Young Award finalist at the end of the season. Pérez is second in ERA at 1.56 after 11 starts and has been one of the great surprises of this season, setting up the 9-year veteran for a decent payday when he reaches free agency this winter. His underlying numbers and metrics aren’t as impressive as Cortés’, but he’s getting batters out more than almost anyone else in baseball this year and has a complete-game shutout under his belt. He’s one of the dark horses of this year’s Cy Young race if he can remain consistent in the second half.
Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman were my top 2 preseason contenders for this year’s AL Cy Young race, and they’ve more or less delivered on expectations. They have quite similar numbers to this point in the season, both with a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts and 64 2/3 innings of work, and this is the rate I would expect both of them to continue producing at. We know who Gerrit Cole is at this point in his career; he’s going to be a top 5 Cy Young contender every season until further notice, and Gausman broke out in San Francisco to set himself up with a hefty 5-year deal from Toronto this past offseason, with his pinpoint control and elite splitter allowing him to have sustainable ace-level production so far this year, as shown by his MLB-leading 1.61 FIP thanks to his minimal allowance of home runs and walks. I expect both to make the cut for the All-Star team and be in a similar position by season’s end as other pitchers around them begin to regress.
Manoah and McClanahan are two of the most electrifying young starters in the Major Leagues, both arriving as nearly-finished products last year with very strong rookie seasons in 2021. They’ve each taken the next step in 2022 and blossomed into the aces of their respective staffs, the Blue Jays and Rays. Currently third and fourth in ERA among qualified AL starters, Manoah and McClanahan profile as future Cy Young award contenders and possibly even winners for years to come, and this is the year they truly arrive. Manoah’s stamina and composure will earn him plenty of quality starts and wins behind a high-powered Jays offense, and McClanahan is currently leading all of MLB in strikeouts while showing excellent control and should anchor the Rays’ rotation for the next several years.
Justin Verlander… what else is there to say at this point? He’s one of the three greatest pitchers to debut in the 21st century alongside Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, and at age 39 after missing two years due to injury has returned without losing a step. He’s a top choice for AL Comeback Player of the Year, and with a 2.23 ERA and league-leading 0.80 WHIP on June 7th, he just may try and bag his third career Cy Young Award while he’s at it. His velocity may be a few ticks down, but his stuff and command are as elite as ever as he helms a very strong Astros staff.
Now, for the close misses who I believe will be the AL reserves. I think Jameson Taillon of the Yankees, Framber Valdez of the Astros, Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners will be the first up to be selected if any of the prospective All-Star starters go down with injury or have a rough June.
Jameson Taillon has quietly been the second best pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation, slightly ahead of Cole, but lacks the name recognition and marketability that will keep Cole as a mainstay on All-Star rosters. The buzz is starting to grow, however; Taillon just took a perfect game into the eighth inning of his last outing and went eight shutout innings the game before that, and currently has a dazzling 0.8 walks per 9 innings, leading all of MLB with his elite control as he chases his first real payday this offseason. Taillon looks to be a key asset to the Yankees’ postseason push, and will be paid handsomely once he reaches free agency.
Valdez is the best pure groundball creator in the game and has perhaps the most attractive batted-ball profile of a starting pitcher that I’ve ever seen. The weak contact-inducing lefty has comfortably been the Astros’ second most reliable pitcher behind Verlander and just hurled his first career nine-inning complete game last week against Oakland. He’s emerged as one of the most valuable pitchers in the league over the last couple of years and will receive his first All-Star appearance alongside Taillon if any of the current frontrunners become unavailable.
Skubal and Gilbert are budding aces much like Manoah and McClanahan, albeit on teams who are much further from contention. Skubal is in his second full season, having played most of the 2020 pandemic-shortened season on top of his 2021, and could be the most improved pitcher in Major League baseball this season, going from a 4.34 ERA and 5.09 FIP last season to a 2.15 ERA and second-in-MLB 2.01 FIP. The 25-year-old left-hander has become one of the most exciting pitchers in the AL Central and should be an anchor of the Tigers rotation moving forward along with the recently-signed Eduardo Rodríguez as Detroit inches closer and closer to contention.
Gilbert, also in his second season, is a key component of the Mariners’ new core along with rookie outfielder Julio Rodríguez and first baseman Ty France. Gilbert has drastically improved on the mound after an average rookie campaign thanks in part to his relationship with fellow Stetson University alum Jacob deGrom, and he’s carrying a 2.22 ERA through 11 starts. I think both of these young aces’ performances should put them firmly in the conversation for All-Star reserves in their breakout years.
Relief pitchers: Clay Holmes, New York Yankees; Liam Hendriks, Chicago White Sox; Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays; J.P. Feyereisen, Tampa Bay Rays
Clay Holmes is one of the biggest stories of the 2022 Yankees roster, as he has firmly snatched the closer role from the grasp of longtime 9th inning man Aroldis Chapman. Holmes has a 0.34 era in 25 appearances and hasn’t allowed a run since Opening Day, holding a scoreless streak of 24 consecutive outings since then. Acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates before last season’s trade deadline, Holmes has been dominant in high leverage situations ever since his acquisition, and will be a first-time All-Star as the closer for the team with the best record in baseball.
Liam Hendriks is perhaps the biggest lock of the bunch thanks to his overwhelming popularity; as the most prominent Australian in baseball, he has a large international following and is beloved by White Sox fans around the globe. As Chicago’s closer, he’s had a solid-but-not-outstanding start to the year in terms of ERA but still leads the American League in games finished (21) and saves (16), which should be more than enough to earn him his third All-Star berth.
Jordan Romano emerged last season as one of the best relievers in the league with the Toronto Blue Jays, and has begun this season as their closer. He’s currently tied with Hendriks in games finished and saves, and is within a stone’s throw of Hendriks in other surface-level stats such as ERA and WHIP, which will play a role in the public vote. Romano has arguably been even better than Hendriks given the circumstances, however, given that his game-entering leverage index of 2.37 leads the AL to Hendriks’ 2.11. This means that Romano has come into higher pressure close game situations on average and managed to deliver similar numbers under more stress. Toronto fans will come out in droves to make sure the Canadian native makes a well-deserved appearance in Los Angeles this July.
J.P. Feyereisen rounds out the AL All-Star bullpen as one of only two full-time Major League relievers who has yet to allow an earned run this season as of the publishing of this article, the other being Brewers closer Josh Hader. In 24 appearances for the Rays, Feyereisen has allowed just seven hits and five walks in a high-leverage setup role. Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers along with Drew Rasmussen in last year’s Willy Adames trade, Feyereisen has been a stud for Tampa and has been the most dominant reliever in the American League through the first two months of the season.
This concludes my slightly premature expectations for one-half of the 2022 Major League Baseball All-Star roster. There’s still another month and some change before the break and any given player can have a hot or cold streak that shifts baseball fans’ sentiments over the next 30-odd games, but as of right now these are my best guesses as to where the American League vote ends up. Thanks for reading if you got this far, and I plan to be back soon with my National League predictions.
