I’m fairly new to US politics since I just started following it extensively only from the end of 2014. Still, I have developed some fairly strong opinion about it and thought I should at least share my predictions as I already experienced 2 Iowa Caucuses already(2016 republican and democratic)
First things first , it is fairly tough to predict Caucuses but if we look the data big enough then we will be able to realize some patterns that is usually seen in the caucus day . below are some major ones :
- Moderate candidates that are front-runners on the poll leading up to the caucus tend to only match their poll numbers and sometimes they under-perform too.
- 2. Extreme candidates that leads the polls experience a big down-tick in their actual number in the caucus night.
- 3. Mainstream candidate that also leads in the poll tend to outperform their poll but only if they poll around 20–35%. If these candidates poll higher than that number they usually reach their poll numbers but sometimes fails to do but not by large margins.
4. Candidates polling below 10% usually gets 3–4% of the votes
5. Candidates polling around low to mid single digit numbers usually gets 0–1.5% of the votes
6. We also have to account for lanes and candidate outreach.
7. And lastly we have to look at the trends.
Now for this year,
- Bernie Sanders —
i) He is gaining in the polls in the last month resembling past winners like Kerry and Obama . But he didn’t lead in a whole lot polls like obama did so he probably won’t get a huge bump like Obama did
ii) He is an extreme candidate and getting various attack ads targeted towards him which will limit his reach. Also he doesn’t appeal to the whole base to begin with .
considering these and the lanes overlap I think he will get — 22.3(poll average)+4(bump considering lanes and other factors)+1(undecided)+=27.3%
2. Joe Biden-
i) He was the front runner but now placing in 2nd and 3rd position which is not a good sign for Joe.
ii) He gets a lot of supporters from the lane overlap from other candidates
ii) He is a moderate and historically moderate candidates have seen a boost in their number
considering these and the lanes overlap I think he will get-21.9+.7+2+=24.6%
ii) experiencing a downtick
iii) polling at mid-teens
considering these and the lanes overlap I think he will get-14+1+2=16.9%
ii) experiencing a rough patch
iii) polling at mid-teens
considering these and the lanes overlap I think she will get-13.5+3.7+2=19.2%
6. Yang- .8
7. Steyer- .5
So Final result would most probably be