Sep 4, 2018 · 1 min read
I agree! I think what Mr. Smil meant was to not to trust complex models that are based on assumptions and on other complex models just like it and then make decisions based on it.
For example, The global warming predictions are based on complex weather models based on multiple cycles and other phenomenon, and a ton of assumptions that they will hold in the future when there is no data of a similar situation. That does not mean we should stop modelling since it is the only way for us to understand something, just that we should focus more on more deterministic stuff like current data.
